Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, has announced that the number of Conservative MPs who have submitted letters of censure to Boris Johnson has reached the threshold of 54, prompting a vote on the Prime Minister’s leadership. Here’s how the process works:
How was a vote triggered?
The rules state that at least 15% of Conservative MPs must submit a letter of censure to Brady in order for a vote to be held. With the Conservatives currently having 359 MPs, that meant at least 54 had to do so.
Deputies did not have to reveal their identities, although some chose to go public after pressure from their constituents or to try to encourage others to do the same. Letters may be deposited in person at the Brady Commons office, sent by another person, or emailed. Throughout the process, only Brady knew how many letters had been sent.
Brady did not need, as stated, to call all Conservative MPs who had sent a letter to check that they were satisfied with his decision before announcing the vote of confidence. Nor is there a list of those who have sent letters to Johnson’s ministerial aides.
How will Johnson’s fate be decided?
By a simple secret ballot of the deputies, which will take place on Monday from 18 to 20 hours. According to the rules, to hold office a leader must win at least 50%, plus a vote of support from the parliamentary party. That equates to 180 votes for Johnson.
Voting is done in person, and MPs personally place their folded ballots in a ballot box stored for that use. It is likely to be held in a large committee room at Westminster Palace which is commonly used for Committee meetings in 1922. If a Member is away from Westminster, he may appoint a colleague to vote on his behalf as attorney.
Parliamentarians are forbidden to take pictures inside the room, to preserve secrecy, although there is a lot of pressure, and journalists will regularly patrol the hallway outside the room, watching who comes to vote.
When and how will the result be announced?
Brady’s announcement said that the votes will be counted immediately after the close of voting, with the announcement “made at the time of being informed”, and the provisions for this will be published later on Monday.
Most likely, as happened with the challenge to Theresa May in 2018, Brady will gather MPs and journalists in the same committee room and declare whether or not the parliamentary party has confidence in the Prime Minister, giving the number of votes. in both directions.
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What if Johnson loses?
If Johnson gets less than 180 votes, the party will choose a new leader and therefore a new prime minister. Constitutionally, the UK requires a Prime Minister in office at all times, which means Johnson would be expected to continue at number 10 until a successor is elected. This process took two months when Johnson replaced May. While the contest could be accelerated, it involves a vote by members of the Conservative Party, which requires time and events. Members vote on an election of two candidates, one reduced by a series of previous votes among Conservative MPs. If Johnson decided he wanted to leave immediately, he would need an interim prime minister. Dominic Raab is the Deputy Prime Minister and would seem the most likely person.
What if he wins?
According to party rules, a leader who wins a vote of confidence is safe from this challenge for 12 months. However, the rules can be easily changed and this does not provide security. May won her vote of confidence, but was soon forced to announce a timetable for her departure, under threat of a rule change and a new vote. May gained the support of just under two-thirds of his deputies. A survival figure for Johnson would depend on many factors, but a victory by that margin or less would make his prospects very uncertain.