As communities in Ontario and Quebec pick up the pieces after a deadly storm left thousands without electricity, AccuWeather’s new forecasts reveal that humid, warm weather is expected to continue in the region for the summer season.
According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson, a part of eastern Canada that runs from central and southern Ontario to western and southern Quebec could see higher-than-normal rainfall levels during the summer. The region is also expected to see above-average storm activity levels, he said.
“This could be a busy summer in terms of severe storms, especially from the Windsor corridor in Toronto to Ottawa,” Anderson said as part of an analysis by the weather forecasting company.
In fact, parts of the country, including British Columbia and Canada’s maritime provinces, are also likely to have wetter-than-normal conditions this summer, according to AccuWeather’s annual summer forecast released on Tuesday.
La Nina, a weather phenomenon, is expected to play an important role in controlling which areas of Canada will see the amount of rainfall increase. The climate pattern is caused by a drop in sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean for extended periods of time. This has an impact on the orientation and position of the northbound current, which in turn affects precipitation levels.
An increase in humidity in Ontario and Quebec will also result in higher humidity levels in the region, Anderson said, referring to higher amounts of water vapor in the air. Higher humidity levels will also help these areas retain some of the heat they find, as the air cannot cool as quickly as if it were dry.
“Rising humidity will result in warmer nights than normal, while daytime temperatures will be closer to normal,” Anderson said.
The effects of higher humidity are especially pronounced in large cities, which tend to catch more heat due to the amount of pavement and buildings there, which take longer to release heat. The good news, however, is that higher rainfall levels are also expected to reduce the risk of drought and forest fires in the region.
WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
According to AccuWeather’s summer forecast, areas of British Columbia are also likely to see more rainfall than usual.
“It will be wetter than normal in the northern part of the province and almost normal rain is expected in the southern part,” Anderson said.
Western Canada is often the region hardest hit by La Nina, the meteorologist said. This summer, lightning is expected to bring more moisture to parts of western Canada, reducing the likelihood of forest fires in the area.
“Given the current conditions and the expected teleconnections, we can see a reduction in fire activity this year, especially compared to last summer,” Anderson said.
Temperatures are expected to cool this year compared to the scorching heat conditions reported in 2021, Anderson said. Last summer, Canadians saw record temperatures in June 2021. The town of Lytton, BC, broke the record for the highest temperature three days in a row, setting a record high of 49.6 C on June 29th.
This year, residents can expect temperatures to be closer to normal in most of British Columbia. In Vancouver, for example, temperatures between 21 and 22 ºC are considered common in mid to late July.
In addition, rivers and streams are likely to flow at or above normal levels. Runoff water that melts from snowdrifts in nearby mountains will eventually flow into rivers and streams, which will help keep water flowing to different parts of the province, Anderson said.
PROPOSED PROPERTY TO DRY AND STRONG FIRE
Unlike western Canada, prairie provinces are expected to continue in the summer with the dry conditions that arose in mid-May.
“The severe and worsening drought in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan is likely to fuel the heat over the summer,” Anderson said.
Canadian Drought Monitor data point to drier-than-normal conditions in the southernmost parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Southern Alberta, in particular, continues to face extreme drought conditions.
According to Anderson, these ongoing conditions are likely to cause temperatures to rise in cities like Calgary and Regina, resulting in a hotter-than-usual summer.
Rising temperatures, combined with dry soil, are paving the way for forest fires to occur as well, Anderson said. When the soil is dry, it is easier for the sun’s heat to return to the atmosphere. The result is even higher temperatures, possibly several degrees above what they would have been if the soil were wet.
“These dry, warm conditions are likely to increase the risk of large, rapid-spread fires in the southern prairies,” Anderson said.
Soil in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan will remain wet due to river overflows as a result of recent storms. This will help reduce some of the risks associated with higher temperatures and the development of forest fires, Anderson said. However, these wetter conditions are unlikely to last all summer.
“Conditions can change to drier and warmer during the second half of the summer as the soil dries out,” he said.
MOISTURE ON THE EAST COAST OF CANADA
Those in Canada’s maritime provinces can expect to see wet conditions this summer, according to AccuWeather, with warmer water temperatures likely to cause warmer air temperatures throughout the season.
“I expect the water temperatures to be about average [1 to 2 C] “Above normal in the Atlantic, off the coast of Nova Scotia,” Anderson said. “This will have a warming influence and higher humidity in the surrounding area, especially at night.”
The meteorologist also points to worrying trends in tropical activity in the region. Above-average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean may pose a greater risk of a tropical system hitting the base in Atlantic Canada. There have already been reports of a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year that will take place during the summer and early fall.
This comes when the weather summer begins on June 1st. The official start of summer, also known as the summer solstice, begins on June 21.