Nigerian security officials suspect that extremists of the Islamic State affiliate in West Africa were behind an attack on a Catholic church last weekend that caused dozens of deaths.
Forty people are believed to have died Sunday after gunmen stormed St. Francis d’Owo Catholic Church in Ondo State, and 61 survivors are still being treated at the hospital, according to local authorities. The total is twice the previous estimate.
The National Security Council of Nigeria said on Thursday that the attack was the work of the Islamic State group of the West African Province (Iswap), apparently reinforcing fears that militants, who have been restricted in the northeast for for many years, they sought to expand their influence and reach other parts of the country. Ondo, in the southwest, has long been considered one of the safest parts of the country.
However, some analysts have recommended caution, noting the absence of any liability claims by Iswap.
“Iswap always calls for big attacks, and always in the south,” said Vincent Foucher, a researcher at the CNRS (National Center for Scientific Research) in Paris. “They want to prove that they are strong and even expand, so they would definitely claim this.”
He said the modus operandi was different. “Most previous Iswap attacks have used impact and escape tactics, not a large assault team as in this incident.”
Other possible perpetrators include militias involved in local conflicts, violence between farmers and ranchers, and even criminal networks. In an attack on an Anambra state church in 2017, police arrested local traffickers and traffickers.
The growing instability of Africa’s most populous nation was underscored by attacks that killed at least 32 people in rural Northwest a few days ago.
Motorcycle gangs attacked four villages in the Kajuru area of Kaduna state on Sunday, according to witnesses. Bad telecommunications have delayed residents from reporting attacks, as is often the case in some parts of northern Nigeria.
These attacks have become frequent in the troubled northwest of Nigeria, where thousands have been killed, according to data compiled by the US Foreign Relations Council. Residents are often abducted and detained for weeks, usually on forest reserves, until rescues are paid.
The gunmen of the latest violence were “armed Fulani militia,” a resident said. “That’s the language they spoke. That was their vision. They’re not new to our environment because it’s not the first time they’ve attacked.”
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Fulani pastoralists, who are mostly Muslims, have been in conflict with farmers who have settled for decades for access to land for grazing. Rivalry has become deadly in recent years as armed gangs attack rural communities.
Neither police nor Kaduna State officials have yet confirmed the attacks. Analysts say the limited security presence in many remote communities makes it difficult for government forces to protect residents from attacks or to quickly arrest perpetrators.
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has been accused of not doing enough to end the country’s security problems, one of the main campaign promises made by the former general when he ran in the 2015 elections. of Buhari as president ends in May 2023.
Iswap has been unable to fully capitalize on its spectacular victory over rival extremist group Boko Haram last year.
“They’ve had different fortunes,” Foucher said. “The army has been more active and it’s been pretty good to put them under pressure now that they’re the main focus … They’re also facing unexpectedly tough resistance from other factions.”