ANKARA, Turkey (AP) – In two weeks’ time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan caused a stir by throwing a wrench at Sweden and Finland’s historic request to join NATO, attacking his partner in the Greece alliance and announcing plans for a new raid. in Syria.
Erdogan appears to be using Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Ukrainian war and its ability to veto new NATO members as an opportunity to file a variety of grievances and force other nations to take action against groups that the Turkish government considers terrorists, including the Kurds. militants.
Expanding his image as a strong man by focusing on international disputes could also resonate nationally as Turkey prepares for a general election next year.
Here’s a look at Erdogan’s last chance and what to expect to win:
WHAT DOES TURKEY WANT?
Turkey, which commands NATO’s second-largest army, is pushing for long-sought demands for Sweden – and to a lesser extent Finland – to crack down on entities that Ankara says are linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.
By threatening to block the incorporation of the two Nordic nations into the Western military alliance, the Turkish government also wants them to end their alleged support for the People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia.
The PKK is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey, Europe and the United States. He has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, and the conflict has killed tens of thousands. Turkey says the PKK and the YPG are one and the same.
Turkey calls for extradition of wanted terrorist suspects from Finland and Sweden. The two NATO aspirants reject allegations that they support the PKK or other terrorist groups.
Another key demand is the lifting of arms sales restrictions that several European countries, including Sweden and Finland, imposed on Turkey after a raid on Syria in 2019 to act against the YPG.
Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey’s program coordinator for the Middle East Democracy Project, said Erdogan believes NATO needs Turkey, which puts him in a position to negotiate.
“They (NATO allies) want to show Russia that NATO is more united than ever and that not even Erdogan’s Turkey will be able to break it. So Erdogan knows he can get away with it. said Tahiroglu.
WHY THREATEN A NEW OFFICIAL IN SYRIA NOW?
Turkey has carried out three major incursions into Syria since 2016 that have strained relations with the United States. Washington considers Syrian Kurdish groups to be key allies in the fight against the Islamic State group, but Turkey considers them terrorist organizations.
Erdogan on Monday announced plans for a new Turkish offensive in northern Syria to create a safe area 30 kilometers deep along its southern border. The long-standing goal would be to move the YPG militia away from the borders of Turkey.
The timing suggests that this offensive could be used to rally nationalist voters while providing a avenue for the momentum created by Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war to further Ankara’s demands in the negotiations. NATO.
Michael Tanchum, a senior member of the Austrian Institute for European Policy and Security, said the Turkish government believes that its NATO allies do not fully appreciate the threat posed by the PKK and its branches. Turkey.
At the same time, Turkey has close relations with both Moscow and Kyiv. In the midst of the war in Ukraine, his position “offers Ankara some leverage to try to address these issues of great concern to the Turkish Republic,” Tanchum said.
But another incursion into Syria in addition to Turkey’s opposition to Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO could unravel the “goodwill” Erdogan built after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tahiroglu of the Middle East Democracy Project.
“It has certainly reinforced the idea that many NATO allies had that Turkey is a troubled ally under Erdogan,” Tahiroglu said.
HOW IS GREECE IN THIS?
NATO’s nominal allies, Greece and Turkey, are regional rivals with long-standing disagreements over a range of issues, from maritime borders in the eastern Mediterranean to the future of ethnically divided Cyprus. Tensions between them erupted in 2020 over offshore energy rights.
Erdogan was angry at comments made by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a recent visit to Washington. The prime minister suggested while addressing Congress that the United States should not sell F-16s to Turkey to avoid creating “a new source of instability” on NATO’s southeast flank.
In response, Erdogan said he would no longer talk to Mitsotakis and cancel a Strategic Council meeting between his two governments.
The Turkish president referred to the animosity with Greece in discussing its opposition to the NATO demands of Sweden and Finland. Erdogan said his country had made a mistake in approving Greece’s re-entry into the military wing of the alliance in 1980 and was determined not to make the same mistake with Sweden and Finland.
Speaking at this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mitsotakis said it would be “a mistake if Turkey continues to use these negotiations (NATO) to extract some kind of benefit for its own national interests.”
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF ELECTORAL POLICY?
Turkey will hold next year’s presidential and parliamentary elections no later than June 2023. Incursions into Syria to oust the YPG strengthened Erdogan’s support in the last election. The Turkish leader may be waiting to rally the nationalist votes again at a time when the country’s economy is declining, with inflation at almost 70%.
Erdogan also saw his popularity rise earlier when he seemed to face Greece and other Western nations.
“I think his plan right now is to show his voter base that he can arm the U.S. and NATO allies,” Tahiroglu said. “And he has the power to do that, to act that way, because these allies have been appeasing him since the beginning of the Ukrainian war.”
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Zeynep Bilginsoy in Istanbul and Derek Gatopoulos in Athens contributed.
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