The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects a hurricane season in the Atlantic “above normal” this year, the agency announced on Tuesday. If that works, 2022 will be the seventh year in a row with a higher than normal season.
Rick Spinrad, the NOAA administrator, told a news conference Tuesday that scientists had calculated a 65 percent chance of a season above normal, a 25 percent chance of a season almost normal and a 10 percent chance of a season below normal. season.
The season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, although storms can develop outside of this period, is likely to include 14 to 21 named storms, a category that includes all tropical cyclones with winds of at least 39 miles per hour. Of these, between six and ten are expected to reach the strength of the hurricane, that is, sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour. And from this subset, between three and six are expected to reach category 3 or higher, that is, sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
NOAA’s seasonal forecast is for global hurricane activity in the Atlantic and does not predict how many storms will occur near or on land.
But “it only takes a storm to damage your home, neighborhood and community,” Mr. Spinrad. “Preparation is key to resilience, and now is the time to prepare for the next hurricane season.”
Several elements reported the forecast, including La Niña, a broad climate pattern that has been maintained since 2020 and that affects many aspects of the weather, including drought in the western United States. La Niña is expected to persist throughout the hurricane season, maintaining favorable conditions for hurricane formation.
Another factor is a strong monsoon in West Africa, which supports the development of low-pressure areas known as East African waves, from which intense storms can form. At the same time, trade winds from the tropical Atlantic are weaker than average, making it easier for a developing storm to unite without being torn by the wind shear. NOAA is also expecting unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean this summer, and storms are gaining strength as they pass through warm water.
The classification system used by NOAA, which classifies events of increasing intensity as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and Category 1 to Category 5 hurricanes, is based solely on maximum wind speeds and does not reflect the volume or intensity of the rain.
But rains and floods can often cause more damage than wind, and destruction can extend far beyond the southern coastal regions that are most affected by hurricanes. In early September, the remnants of Hurricane Ida devastated the New York metropolitan area with more than three inches of rain in an hour, although its winds had fallen well below the force of the storm. hurricane at that time.
Broadly speaking, many of the patterns that have led to above-average hurricane seasons and other extreme weather conditions are related to climate change.
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“We are seeing such a dramatic change in the type of weather events we face as a result of climate change,” Deanne Criswell, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s administrator, said Tuesday. need for individual preparation. .
As the season progresses, meteorologists will be watching the Loop Current, a warm area in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Its position varies from year to year, and the smaller currents known as eddies can be separated from the main stream, bringing warmer than average water further north of the gulf.
This is not a factor in seasonal forecasting because the effects depend on the geography of individual storms, said Matthew Rosencrans, the chief hurricane forecaster at NOAA Climate Prediction Center. If the path of a storm does not catch it above the current, it is not relevant. But storms flowing through the loop or a whirlwind can intensify quickly and dangerously, as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita did in 2005, and this year’s current looks very similar to 2005.
“Loop Current seems to be active this year; we are seeing this hot water push into the gulf, “Mr Rosencrans said.” If a storm forms and then moves over where the loop current is, it can be an explosive source of energy. “.