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When the number of cases increases, the COVID modeling expert recommends returning to the inner masking, avoiding crowded spaces, obtaining a booster vaccine.
Date of publication:
July 3, 2022 • 18 hours ago • 4 minutes reading • 137 comments A COVID modeling expert encourages those who meet the requirements to get their COVID-19 booster injections before the peak of the wave BA.4 and BA.5 and do not expect newer vaccines. Photo of NICK PROCAYLO / PNG
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Omicron’s third wave has begun and is expected to increase rapidly and peak in August, says a COVID modeling expert.
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“I think there was hope that we wouldn’t have another wave until the fall, but the wave is starting now,” said Sally Otto, who advises masking again, in addition to getting reinforcements.
Otto, an evolutionary biologist and mathematical modeler at the University of British Columbia, presented her data at the main American meeting of evolutionary biologists in Cleveland, Ohio, last week.
Data from public health laboratories across Canada that track Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants show that they will soon surpass Omicron’s initial subvariants in Canada, said Otto, who is a member of the COVID-19 modeling in BC.
“Right now we are at a reasonable low point, the lowest point of 2022,” Otto said. “So we can afford to be a little more relaxed right now, but not for long, because that’s rising so fast that we’re going to face a bigger risk.
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“Now you go to the grocery store and your risk is reasonably low. You go to the grocery store in three weeks and there’s a high probability that someone else has COVID.”
There is a lot of uncertainty about the severity and harmfulness of the BA.1 to BA.5 subvariants, Otto said, at a time when public health measures are the lowest that have gone through the pandemic, with no mandate to mask or any provincial vaccination test. need for public events and meetings, and little desire to return them.
“Every week of July, the risk of COVID doubles and this should help give people an idea of the likelihood they have of encountering COVID in their communities,” Otto said.
“But the good news is it’s summer, so do these outdoor parties and open those windows and just avoid those spaces full of people with strangers as much as people can, and wear a mask, but don’t stop to live”.
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Otto recommends wearing a mask in crowded indoor environments, “especially in mid-July and August, when this next wave of cases will be in full swing.”
It also encourages those who meet the requirements to receive their COVID-19 booster vaccinations before the peak of wave BA.4 and BA.5 and who do not expect newer vaccines.
Last week, the National Immunization Advisory Committee recommended booster vaccines before a fall wave for people 65 and older, long-term residents, people with clinically compromised immunocompromises, indigenous people, and marginalized communities.
The NACI said it will offer recommendations on the type of vaccine against COVID-19 as evidence of appropriate vaccines becomes available.
Otto said he cannot predict whether there will be a falling wave or its expected virulence.
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“What I can say is that there is still a huge evolutionary potential for this virus, because there are many cases worldwide and that means this virus is changing in multiple ways around the world,” Otto said.
“I think COVID is with us in the long run and we need to improve a little bit when it comes to reacting and responding: when the waves go up, so do all the protection measures and when the waves go down, as we are now., at a reasonable low point … we can afford to be a little more relaxed … but not for long ”.
For those who lost track of variants and subvariants, COVID-19 mutated into Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron variants. Omicron is considered less deadly than Delta but more transmissible. The Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are similar to the initial Omicron BA.2 subvariant, with the exception of some mutations.
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“And these mutations make BA.4 and BA.5 even more difficult for our immune system to recognize the virus,” Otto said.
Several countries, including the US, Portugal, France, Israel and Italy, have reported an increase in COVID-19 cases.
Canada’s director of public health Theresa Tam issued a statement on Thursday saying the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are more transmissible and can evade immunity better than previous versions. An increase in cases is likely in the coming weeks, he said.
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As of June 18, there were an estimated 15,047 new weekly cases of COVID-19 in Canada, comparable in November and below the 288,771 cases per week at the peak of the Omicron wave in January.
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While the number of BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants of Omicron COVID-19 is declining, the estimated number of BA.4 and BA.5 is increasing at a daily growth rate of 3.1% in British Columbia .
Compared to Alberta, the growth rate is 4.9%, doubling every 14 days, 6.3% in Ontario doubling every 11 days and 5.5% in Quebec, where it doubles every 14 days. 12 days.
The good news is that data from the COVID-19 immunity working group and Canadian blood services suggest high levels of antibodies in all age groups, determined by blood donations through mid-May.
The bad news is that the ability of antibodies to neutralize COVID virus and prevent infection is substantially compromised for BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, Otto said.
ceharnett@timescolonist.com
To read more information from the Times Colonist, click here.
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