It was the week that everything changed. For years, security analysts and politicians have warned of China’s rise in the Pacific. Officials representing Beijing have been working slowly and, for the most part, quietly on the small island nations that dot the vast Pacific Ocean: cementing allies, funding infrastructure projects, conducting concerted person-to-person diplomacy.
But this week Beijing has picked up the pace.
The leak of a broad economic and security pact revealed that China expects to sign 10 Pacific countries for an agreement that could fundamentally upset the balance of power in a region that covers nearly a third of the world. Pacific nations are now facing an election that will shape the region for decades to come.
“An unprecedented marathon”
It began with the announcement that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi would embark on an “extraordinary and unprecedented” trip across the Pacific from May 26 to June 4, with eight countries in 10 days. Wang landed in the Solomon Islands on Thursday, before moving to Kiribati and Samoa on Friday; Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste will follow next week.
Some of the countries Wang visits, such as Kiribati, have been the hardest to visit during the pandemic, as Pacific island countries, fearing Covid’s devastation in fragile health systems, have introduced some of the strictest border closures. of the world and are still closed to visitors.
“Being able to do this is a feat,” said Dr George Carter, a researcher in the Department of Pacific Affairs at the National University of Australia, saying the visit “has surpassed any other diplomacy in terms of , in the last two years ”.
“A foreign minister goes to a country like Kiribati that is still in international confinement, a foreign minister meets with Fiamē [Naomi Mataʻafa, the new prime minister of Samoa]that he has not met with Australian or New Zealand ministers or leaders as prime minister is sending big signals. “
Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific Islands program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said the trip was an “extraordinary and unprecedented marathon that will leave many people in the West nervous. It’s not just what it says the trip to reactivate post-Covid China with the region, but what kind of agreements it will sign with its counterparts along the way. “
An inaugural ceremony of the 2023 Pacific Games Stadium Project is being held in Honiara. The athletics track and football field were built with Chinese help. Photo: Xinhua / REX / Shutterstock
Wang’s first stop was the Solomon Islands, which signed a controversial security deal with China last month, fueling the worst fears of Canberra and Washington, which have long been on the lookout for signs that China could establish a military base in the Pacific Islands.
The pact between China and the Solomon Islands, which has not been made public, but a draft of which was leaked online, seems to allow such a basis, which allows China to “make ship visits, make logistical repositioning and scale and scale “. transition in the Solomon Islands “, although the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, has denied that there is a similar basis in the letters.
“It’s the biggest concern of this deal for Australia,” James Batley, the former Australian High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands, told the Guardian last month. “For Australia, it’s potentially a strategic nightmare, but it’s also worrisome for other Pacific islands for the same reason.”
But the agreement between Solomon and China was just the beginning. Shortly after the news of Wang’s major Pacific tour was announced, the news of the proposed security agreement for the entire region arrived.
The agreement, proposed between China and 10 Pacific countries, covers everything from a free trade zone with the region, to the provision of humanitarian aid and Covid aid, to the sending of groups of art on the islands. But most troubling is the view it establishes from a much closer relationship on security issues, with China proposing that it be involved in police training, cybersecurity, sensitive marine mapping and access to security. natural resources.
It would mean a significant shift in the regional security order and place the Pacific island countries firmly at the center of the geopolitical tug-of-war between China and the US and its allies.
“[China] “It has slowly increased its diplomatic and economic engagement in the Pacific.” But now with the Solomon Islands, it has opened a door to another possibility in terms of engagement with China. say Carter, China’s move from economic partner and development to security actor in the region came “very quickly and quickly.”
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong is exchanging gifts with Henry Puna, Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva, Fiji. Photo: Pita Simpson / Getty Images
Traditional partners fighting
The proposed regional agreement caused the west to collapse. Australia’s new foreign minister, with less than a week to go after the federal election last weekend, flew to Fiji to reaffirm Australia’s commitment to the Pacific.
“What we would ask, like Australia, is to consider where a nation could be in three, five or ten years,” Penny Wong said when asked about the deal proposed by China.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who is currently touring the United States, said: to do it”.
In a move that was touted as significant, it was announced on Friday that Fiji would join Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the first Pacific island country to do so, as the U.S. seeks to strengthen alliances with the nations of the Pacific. .
But the real question comes next week when Wang will host a meeting of his Pacific counterparts at a summit in Suva and urge them to sign the agreement. Some Pacific leaders have expressed willingness to consider Wang’s proposal, while a senior diplomat told the Guardian that some leaders had “major concerns.”
Still, “there is a gap left in this region for traditional partners: they have to work very hard to get the hearts of the people of the Pacific back,” they said.
Experts believe that some countries could certainly be influenced by the Chinese agreement.
Dr. Anna Powles, a senior professor of security studies at Massey University in New Zealand, said the deal would mean “a significant loss of strategic autonomy for the Pacific countries and that is why Beijing is unlikely to have success”.
“This, however, does not prevent some Pacific states from pursuing bilateral versions of the agreement. We will soon know how effective Beijing’s diplomacy is in the Pacific.”