Analysts have warned that reported plans for US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan could lead to one of the most dangerous moments in cross-strait relations for decades.
Pelosi’s visit has not been confirmed, but there is speculation that it could happen in the coming weeks. He would be the most senior US official to visit since Newt Gingrich in 1997.
China has warned that a visit by Pelosi would have “consequences”.
“I think the Chinese need to do more than they did in 1997; Xi Jinping cannot be seen as weak in that,” said Bonnie S Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund think tank. “It is a very dangerous moment. I think few people realize how dangerous this is.”
The Chinese government and military are staunchly opposed to any foreign visits or expressions of support for Taiwan, and the heightened backlash to a visit by Pelosi, a longtime critic of the Chinese government, has sparked a concern
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government claims that democratically self-ruled Taiwan is a breakaway province that must be “reunified” with the mainland, ideally peacefully but by force if necessary.
Taiwanese troops on exercise in New Taipei City on Wednesday. Photograph: Ritchie B Tongo/EPA
Last week, US President Joe Biden said he understood the US military did not want Pelosi to visit. Pelosi speculated that there were concerns that her plane was shot down.
Such drastic military action by China is not considered likely, but China’s defense ministry said on Tuesday it would “not stand idly by”. He threatened “strong measures” to “frustrate any external interference and separatist attempts at ‘Taiwan independence,'” state media said.
Hu Xijin, a Chinese nationalist commentator and former editor of the Global Times newspaper, has speculated that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may send aircraft to the island of Taiwan for the first time since the civil war ended in 1949. Such an act would mark a major escalation of the hundreds of sorties conducted in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, but not its sovereign airspace, in recent years.
Glaser said Taiwan would be forced to turn planes in response, adding that “there’s always the potential for a crash, but even if there isn’t, the Chinese are proving that they can fly over Taiwan with impunity, because Taiwan he won’t shoot them.”
Analysts said the US administration’s response to the plans and China’s reaction meant it was difficult to de-escalate the situation without making either China or the US appear weak.
In Taiwan, the visit and the drama surrounding it have attracted days of headlines, with broad support for Pelosi’s visit and a narrow focus on comments by US politicians. Some commentators and citizens urged the US not to back down from China’s threats, while others predicted that Pelosi could be a precursor to the US Secretary of Defense or Secretary of State one day doing the same journey.
The furore comes as Taiwan conducts large-scale defense drills, including mock air strikes on major cities that ordered millions of residents to evacuate as sirens wailed. On Tuesday, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen inspected live-fire military exercises off the coast, amid efforts to bolster defenses and reassure the public of their capabilities.
Speaking during the drills, defense ministry spokesman Sun Li-fang said Taiwan was monitoring the movements of Chinese warships and aircraft around the island, some of which were spotted near the south -east of Taiwan. The drills occur annually and are unrelated to current tensions over Pelosi’s visit.
“Now is a very sensitive time,” said Chen Shin-min, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, citing the upcoming political conclave in Beidaihe, where CCP elders will judge Xi’s leadership, as well as the PLA’s anniversary . and the crucial CCP congress later this year, when Xi will seek a third term.
“If Pelosi visits Taiwan, Xi Jinping will be criticized by others who may not want him to remain China’s leader,” said Chen, who specializes in international security and the Chinese military.
“In this situation it is dangerous for Taiwan… Xi Jinping may want to use external activities, for example [to] attack Taiwan, [to increase] China’s nationalistic sentiment,” he said, adding that an attack was unlikely because China would likely lose as long as the US was involved.
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However, canceling a visit comes with its own risks, according to Chen. “[That] would lead Taiwan to question the credibility of the US security commitment. There is no war right now, [but] if mainland China can use its language to influence the decision of the United States, how can Taiwan trust the security commitment of the United States? For Taiwan, this is a very big problem.”
Publicly, Taiwanese officials, including the president, have warmly welcomed visits from foreign delegations. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and foreign affairs committee member Wang Ting-yu tweeted cheers at Mike Pompeo’s assertion that he would gladly join Pelosi on her trip.
Privately, The Guardian understands there is some concern in government circles that US actions, specifically Biden’s more recent comments in Tokyo that the US would defend Taiwan, are potentially provocative at a time when Taiwan wants to maintain security of the status quo.
The United States has not formally confirmed whether it would assist Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese attack, but Biden has repeatedly suggested otherwise. Although his language has caused confusion, referring to “obligations” and “commitments” that do not exist in the policy, many analysts believe it is a sign that under his presidency the US would provide military support.
The US provides Taiwan with weapons to defend itself, in accordance with legislated commitments to the island. As China becomes more isolated on the world stage and more belligerent toward Taiwan, other nations such as Australia and Japan have increased their support for Taiwan.
At the Indo-Pacific Ketagalan Forum in Taipei on Tuesday, Tsai called for a more coordinated global response to authoritarian regimes that “threaten to upset the regional balance.” She said: “I want to make it clear that the Taiwanese people are committed to defending our country, maintaining our democratic way of life, and maintaining regional security and stability.”
Additional reporting by Chi Hui Lin