Sunday, 29 May 2022, 18:55 – Astronomers say this will be an all-or-nothing event.
While we may not see anything extraordinary on Monday night, there is a chance that we will see hundreds, if not thousands, of meteors crossing the sky.
About 27 years ago, in 1995, astronomers saw a comet begin to break. Although Comet 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3 had been discovered about 65 years earlier, it had been a rather insignificant object all this time. Even the associated meteor shower, the Herculean tau that reaches its peak at the end of May each year, barely produces meteors. Since 1995, however, the comet has been significantly illuminated as it has broken into multiple fragments. This rupture also ejected a good amount of dust and debris around the comet.
This image from NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope shows an infrared view of the shattered remains of Comet 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3, strung in a trail of pearls along its orbit. Larger fragments can be seen emitting plumes of ice, dust, and gas, which are moved away by radiation pressure due to sunlight. (Credit: NASA)
Since then, the Herculean tau have continued to be a rather unimpressive meteor shower. Each year, it occurs between late May and mid-June, and reaches the end of May. However, it tends to produce so few meteors that it has not been worth mentioning in any seasonal night sky observation guide.
This year, however, is different.
On the night of May 30-31, 2022, astronomers believe that there is a possibility that the Earth could pass through a concentrated cluster of debris of 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3. If this opportunity is offset, it will probably produce a eruption that rivals the heavy annual meteor showers, such as the Perseids or the Geminids. However, there is also the possibility that we may see thousands of bright streaks in the sky while producing a meteor storm!
The time to look at it depends on where you live. Researchers at the Paris Observatory’s Institute of Celestial Mechanics and Ephemeris Calculus have shown that if an explosion occurs, it will focus on the Baja California peninsula around 10 p.m. PDT on May 30th. Most of North America will be able to see it. , with the exception of the Arctic and the Pacific Northwest.
For Canada, this means that the eastern half of the country has the best chance of seeing any outbreaks that may occur. The chances are slimmer the farther west an observer is, due to the effects of twilight.
Meteor activity is expected to last only a few hours, with a maximum around 1:00 AM EDT on Tuesday at 2:30 am NDT, 2:00 AM ADT, 12:00 noon CDT, at 23:00 CST / MDT and at 22:00 PDT.
Look at the bright star Arcturus, in the southwestern sky, in the hours after midnight, EDT, from the night of Monday, May 30 to Tuesday, May 31, 2022, to find the radiant of the potential burst of Hercules tau. Credit: Stellarium / Scott Sutherland
ON THE OTHER HAND
While on Monday night we may see something really impressive, we shouldn鈥檛 expect too much.
“This is going to be an all-or-nothing event,” said Bill Cooke of NASA’s Bureau of Meteorological Environment.
Meteor showers are the result of Earth’s passage through streams of debris left by comets and some asteroids orbiting the Sun. The key word for all of this, for this story, is behind it. Tiny meteoroids in the garbage stream are almost always ejected from the comet or asteroid to follow them after their parent object.
In the case of this possible explosion of the Herculean tau, it all depends on the debris of the 73P / Schwassman-Wachmann 3 being ejected with enough force during the rupture to shoot them in front of the comet.
The reason for this is due to the time and relative positions of the Earth, the comet’s orbit and debris flow, and the main fragments of the comet.
We usually see almost nothing at this time of year from the comet’s very diffuse debris flow. After the comet shattered, however, there was much more dust and debris near the remaining fragments. If we could find some of this more concentrated waste, it would cause the explosion we are looking for. However, time is off.
This orbit diagram shows the relative positions of the inner planets, the apparent primary fragment of comet 73P / Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-C, and the comet’s orbit on May 31, 2022, at 5 UTC. Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / Scott Sutherland
At the moment, these larger fragments of the comet are not close to us. They have to go through our current location in space over the next few months. Then, however, the Earth will be millions of miles away from where we are now, as long as the planet continues in its orbit around the Sun. So for this outburst to occur, we need some of the rubble to have been shot so far away from the fragments that are in our path on Monday night.
According to NASA, observations with the Spitzer Space Telescope showed that some of the debris was ejected with enough force to find it.
“That’s one of the reasons astronomers are excited,” Lee Mohon wrote on NASA’s Watch the Skies blog.
SIGNS OF PROMISE
There is still no indication of whether the outbreak is actually occurring, and we have certainly been disappointed by previous outbreak predictions. However, we are seeing some promising signs.
The Spanish meteorite network managed to capture a Herculean tau fireball on Friday night.
FIRST CARIDE TAU HERCULIDA # SPMN270522H! Recorded yesterday Friday on #Arag贸n by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC. Hopefully the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights. Ready for the campaign? 馃ぉ pic.twitter.com/cm0gPwbCvA
FIRST CAROUS TAU HERCULIDA Research Network for Fireballs and Meteorites (SPMN) on Twitter: “FIRST CAROUS TAU HERCULIDA # SPMN270522H! Registered for the Fireball and Meteorite Research Network (SPMN) on Twitter on Friday: “FIRST CAROUS TAU HERCULIDA # SPMN270522H! Recorded yesterday Friday on #Arag贸n by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC. Hopefully the announcement of many comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights .. Ready for the campaign? Recorded yesterday Friday on #Aragon by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC Hopefully the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights Ready for the campaign? / Twitter “at 23h57m46s TUC. Hopefully the announcement of many more fragments of the comet Red and Meteorite Research Network (SPMN) on Twitter:” FIRST CAROL TAU HERC脷LIDA # SPMN270522H! Recorded yesterday Friday on #Arag贸n by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46sUC. announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights .. Ready for the campaign? Record yesterday Friday on #Arag贸n by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC Hopefully the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights. com / cm0gPwbCvA / Twitter “the next few nights. Ready for the campaign?” Recorded yesterday Friday on #Arag贸n by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23h57m46s TUC. Hopefully the announcement of how # SW3 in the next few nights .. Ready for the campaign? Aragon by Antonio Lasala @ AntonioLG1 at 23:57:46 TUC. Hopefully the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights. Ready for the campaign?
– Fireball and Meteorite Research Network (SPMN) (@RedSpmn) Fireball and Meteorite Research Network (SPMN) on Twitter: “FIRST CAROUS TAU HERC脷LIDA # SPMN270522H! be the announcement of many more fragments of comet # 73P # SW3 in the coming nights Ready for the campaign?
In addition, the global meteorite network also detected its first tau hercules.
The #globalmeteornetwork detected the first Herculean tau last night. The geocentric radiant was RA = 203.2 掳, Dec = 17.7 degrees based on 17 orbits. The activity seems to be just beginning: it was first detected on May 28 at 7pm UT with a ZHR ~ 0.3 and not low. pic.twitter.com/MoU8CXVRIf
The first tau hercules were detected last night by Denis Vida on Twitter: “The first tau hercules were detected last night by the #globalmeteornetwork. The geocentric radiant was RA = 203.2 掳, December = 17, 7 掳 based on 17 orbits. Activity seems to be just beginning – first detected on May 28, 7pm UT with a ZHR ~ 0.3 and not going down. Pic.twitter.com/MoU8CXVRIf/Twitter “. The geocentric radiant was RA = 203.2 掳, Dec = 17.7 degrees based on 17 orbits. The activity seems to be just …