At least the first question round of the 47th parliament settled one question: we are not about to see a new “high tone” or a “new era of cooperation”. At least not at this hour or so of every parliamentary day.
The Opposition Leader hit out early on the government’s promised plan to abolish the construction industry watchdog (which has had its powers gutted before it can be scrapped altogether). There was a brief attempt by Peter Dutton to link this problem to rising construction costs, but the real reason was murkier.
The leader of the opposition wanted to know if the prime minister had met any CFMMEU official accused of “sexual assault, harassment or rape”.
Space for play or pause, M for mute, left and right arrows for search, up and down arrows for volume.
Dutton did not name any of the accused and had no evidence to suggest any link to the Prime Minister. It got some dust but no follow through. On the first day the attack fell to the ground.
Still, the tone was set and the government responded in kind. Ministers used every opening (including the Dorothy Dixers, who have gone nowhere) to go after their opponents.
It was not a refreshing new chapter in parliamentary rules.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in parliament. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
The inflation rate surprises no one
The Coalition largely avoided the big cost of living news of the day – the 6.1% inflation figure that came down just a couple of hours earlier. The worst inflation figure in more than two decades.
A figure that largely covers the Morrison government’s time in office, but confirms that Labour’s talk of fixing real wage growth is far from being realised.
The result of annual inflation of 6.1% did not surprise anyone. Economists, the markets, the Treasury and the Reserve Bank were expecting a number roughly where it arrived. That doesn’t make it any easier to manage.
It will bring more interest rate hikes and, we’re told, the inflation problem will get worse before it gets better.
Since taking on the role of treasurer, Jim Chalmers has gradually lowered expectations of when workers can expect to see any improvement in their living standards. He has now acknowledged the obvious: there will be no real wage growth in the “short term”.
So when might we see some improvement? We should have a better idea today when Chalmers provides updated forecasts as part of his long-promised economic statement to parliament.
It will lower its forecast for economic growth by 0.5 percent for the last financial year, this year and the 2023-24 financial year, largely thanks to the global slowdown and the higher interest rates they were charged.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has admitted the obvious: there will be no real wage growth in the “short term”. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)
It is unclear what the new forecast will be for the arrival of hard-to-avoid real wage growth, but the Treasurer cautiously predicts it will happen “in this parliament” (a forecast Labor will desperately hope is accurate).
How far will the worker go?
While the government does everything it can to encourage “sustainable” wage growth, there are limits to its influence on price increases. Global factors are largely to blame. That’s not to say there’s a shortage of free advice for Labour.
Notably, most of this advice involves reining in spending, as opposed to the pre-election approach (endorsed by both major parties) of pouring fuel on the fire with splashes of “cost of living” cash to control some way inflation
Space for play or pause, M for mute, left and right arrows for search, up and down arrows for volume. Treasurer offers grim economic outlook as inflation rises.
With the campaign over, most now accept that the government should at least move in the same direction as the Reserve Bank, withdrawing stimulus from the economy. Even the idea of extending the fuel tax cut (so popular before the election) has few friends now.
So, if spending cuts are needed, where should the government look? The Greens say Labor should abandon its promise to keep stage 3 tax cuts for high earners. The Coalition says Labor should abandon its pledge to spend more on areas from childcare to retrofitting the electricity grid.
Labor is unlikely to accept suggestions from its left or right flank and break faith with the electorate.
Instead, he’s looking to cut out “waste and waste.” This will find some savings with presumably little political pain. But Chalmers is clear: the cuts “won’t necessarily end there”.
So how far is he willing to go? Will the billions poured into dams, inland railways and other regional infrastructure as part of the net zero deal with the Nationals face the axe? Will training programs and overlapping skills be reduced? Will efficiencies be found within the NDIS? Or is he hinting at only modest budget savings when he keeps using the word “cut.”
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sundays or on iview, and co-host of Q+A on Thursdays at 8.30pm.