analysis: the January 6 hearings have reached their dramatic conclusion, for now. Here’s what they could mean for Donald Trump’s future

With its prime-time slot, new revelations and previously unseen outtakes from Donald Trump’s chaotic day on January 6, it was billed as an exciting grand finale.

But the eighth hearing of the US congressional committee investigating the assault on the Capitol had a final plot twist.

This is just the beginning.

A flood of new information means that another round of hearings is planned for this September.

“The dam has started to break,” said Liz Cheney, the committee’s vice chair and Trump’s Republican inspector general, Javert.

Amid rumors that he is preparing to announce his next presidential bid in the same month, Trump is likely to return to the center stage of American politics.

But one question remains: What impact, if any, have these hearings had on Trump’s future?

The possibility of criminal charges related to the insurgency has long been looming.

But the former president may have a bold, if legally questionable, plan to evade any prosecution.

The Jan. 6 hearings mixed Hollywood glamor with DC politics

The nine congressmen on the select committee wanted Americans to pay attention.

Through eight public hearings, they built their case, centering Trump at the center of a vast conspiracy to illegally hold the reins of power in the US.

With smart production values ​​and an experienced TV producer at the helm, the January 6 committee wanted their hearings to be seen. (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz)

There was more than 22 hours of testimony, with a mix of live testimony, recorded testimony and video presentations.

The hearings were interspersed with rousing speeches by committee members who explained what they had discovered through extensive investigative work over 12 months.

Designed to gain maximum exposure, the committee wanted to make their case to the largest possible audience.

Ahead of the first public prime-time premiere on June 10, much was made of the fact that the committee had engaged the services of a former high-flying television producer to give the presentations a glossy sheen.

The attention to production values ​​was evident in the product.

There were carefully cut videos using new footage showing that beneath the apparent chaos of January 6, there was also organizing by far-right extremist groups.

Witnesses played different roles in this political drama.

Perhaps the most compelling witness to testify was not a star of Trump’s inner circle, but a supporting player.

Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson gave explosive testimony before the committee on January 6. (AP: J. Scott Applewhite)

White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson had a front-row seat to the chaos that led up to Jan. 6.

His claim of an enraged president pushing his security to allow supporters into the Capitol despite warnings that many were armed raised the possibility of criminal charges.

Testimony from former Attorney General Bill Barr and attorney Eric Herschmann suggested that those around him repeatedly told Trump that talk of a “stolen election” was “bullshit.”

They also used experts to pass judgment on Trump’s behavior, most notably the extraordinarily slow conservative former judge Michael Luttig.

With the style and pace of a Shakespearean actor, he trashed both his party and his former legal secretary John Eastman for his role in the plot to overturn the election.

“Donald Trump and his allies and supporters are a clear and present danger to American democracy,” he said.

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It was clear that the main audience for these hearings were Republican voters.

Almost all the witnesses presented are self-confessed Republicans.

Trump could fire them as RINOs – Republicans in name only.

But many of those whose testimony was most damning were people who once trusted Trump or were close to the president.

These are not Trump’s political enemies, or at least they weren’t until they testified against him.

In the first public hearing, Liz Cheney warned her Republican colleagues: “There will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your dishonor will remain.”

But Donald Trump is still there.

And while he might be on the wane in the eyes of many, he remains a looming presence in the Republican party.

To some extent, the hearings paid off as the committee had hoped

Before the hearings began, it was fashionable in Washington DC to say that they would not change a single opinion.

Democrats would continue to hold Trump responsible for the events of January 6, while many Republicans would still support him.

Hearings have investigated how hundreds of people stormed the Capitol as members of Congress tried to certify the results of the 2020 election. (AP: Andrew Harnik)

But surveys conducted before the hearings and after this round ended show that there has been a small but significant change.

A quick read initially suggests that Americans are still split along party lines.

Half of those polled this week by NPR/Marist say the riot was an insurgency and a threat to democracy, statistically unchanged from December.

And half of those polled say they think Trump should be charged with a crime.

But only 10 percent of them are Republicans.

Although he remains popular in the party and is the favorite for the presidential nomination in 2024, some cracks are beginning to appear in his support.

40% of Republicans believe he is partly to blame for Jan. 6, according to a recent Reuters/IPSOS poll.

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That’s seven more points in six weeks.

Republican focus groups also suggest that party loyalists may be willing to take a look at other candidates in the upcoming presidential primaries, according to Politico.

Trump’s potential challengers in 2024, including Mike Pence, appear to be buoyed by the numbers.

The big issue of processing

The hearings have had an impact on Trump’s inner circle.

Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon was charged with contempt of Congress after being subpoenaed to give evidence, but failed to comply.

Bannon was convicted of two counts of contempt of Congress and faces up to two years in prison.

Former White House adviser Steve Bannon was charged with contempt of Congress for defying a subpoena. (Reuters: Carlos Barria)

Former trade adviser Peter Navarro will face his own contempt of Congress charges later this year.

The House committee does not have the power to charge anyone directly, but it can refer matters for criminal prosecution to the Department of Justice (DOJ).

While the committee has been clear that it believes Trump’s behavior warrants punishment, there are strategic calculations to be made about whether to refer him for prosecution.

Trump and his supporters already see the committee as operating as a witch hunt and will reject any reference to it as politically motivated.

The DOJ does not need a referral to bring charges against anyone.

The man who heads the department, Attorney General Merrick Garland, has said he has been “watching all the hearings.”

The DOJ has been conducting its own investigations into the riot and has already charged hundreds of people in the attack.

But the decision to indict a former president for such a crime is unprecedented and will carry great weight.

Would being president protect Trump again?

Even before the possibility of charges related to Jan. 6 entered the equation, Donald Trump was facing a number of legal problems.

There are a myriad of civil charges and two state criminal charges — one over whether he lied about the value of his assets and another over whether he tried to illegally interfere with the Georgia vote count.

But rather than fearing another run, Trump may be even more motivated to seek the presidency.

The Trumps reportedly want to be America’s first family again in 2024. (Reuters: Brendan McDermid)

The DOJ has a decades-old policy that a sitting president cannot be impeached.

“The spectacle of an impeached president still trying to serve as chief executive boggles the imagination,” the 1973 memo said.

US media suggests that those close to Trump believe this is a factor in his 2024 decision-making.

This policy has never been tested. And many constitutional lawyers argue that the founding fathers were clear that no one, not even the president, is above the law.

However, there is nothing in the constitution that prevents a convicted felon or incarcerated inmate from running for the highest office in the land.

Trump has hinted that regardless of what happens next, whether it’s more hearings or even impeachment, his decision about his political future has been made.

“I’ve already made that decision, so there’s nothing more,” he recently told New York Magazine.

“In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision.”

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