Rudy Gobert has been the best Jazz player in the last six seasons. In fact, according to Basketball-Reference’s Win Shares metric, it would have been eight consecutive seasons, except for one injury that cost him a month in 2015-16.
That’s an incredibly long time in the NBA today. The players who can have these statistics — being the best player on a team for the past six years or the best in seven of the last eight — are Nikola Jokic of Denver, Giannis Antetokounmpo of Milwaukee, Damian Lillard of Portland and, most notably, Karl -Anthony of Minnesota. Peoples. In addition, Gobert of Utah.
The top two are two league MVPs, great legitimate players in the game. But the last three teams finally decided this season that it had been almost a decade of trying and falling short, and that it was time to make big changes.
It’s probably no coincidence, either, that all three teams dumped their main office just before making their franchise change offers. Portland GM Neil Olshey was fired, replaced by Joe Cronin. Minnesota replaced Gersson Rosas with Tim Connelly. Utah sent Dennis Lindsey to pack and hired Danny Ainge over Justin Zanik. Sometimes, it takes a new perspective to realize that the old way doesn’t work.
Minnesota sacrificed its long-term assets because it could have a window to earn now. Utah, after finding that a supposed win window now wasn’t all that had been broken, and after finding that those windows are closing at an alarming rate, he thought he would get those assets in the long run while the obtaining was still good.
And make no mistake: the window for a Gobert trade was closing. Last weekend I just turned 30 years old. After three consecutive All-NBA gestures, last year he fell to the fourth-best center in the league. And most importantly, it’s making a huge amount of money moving forward: $ 38.1 million in 2022-23, $ 41 million in 2023-24, $ 43.8 million in 2024-25, and $ 46.6 million of dollars in 2025-26. The salary cap will also continue to rise, but there is reason to worry that Gobert will not be the same player when he is 34, at a huge cost.
(Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert (27) blocks Detroit Pistons guard Cassius Stanley (2) on his way to the basket in NBA action among the Utahs Jazz and the Detroit Pistons at the Living Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Friday, January 21, 2022.
Gobert is really fantastic. He wanted, more than any player in the last 20 years of the Jazz, to win a title in Utah. It’s a walking defensive system, and far more important offensively than the casual amateur realizes. He is also the most productive rebounder in the league.
However, what Jazz had didn’t work, and it would never work. That was the right conclusion for Ainge and company.
But pouring in Gobert doesn’t really help either. The return is important here.
Make no mistake: Jazz has no central player in this deal. There are no star young players waiting for a contract extension here. There is no equivalent to what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was in the agreement between Paul George and LA.
But legitimately there are 10 useful and valuable assets that the Jazz are gaining in this trade. Ten!
• Malik Beasley scored 20 points per game in a handful of games after the Wolves acquired him on the 2020 deadline, and then scored 19.6 PPG on 2020-21. He then went to literal prison during the off-season, serving 78 days after pleading guilty to a charge of threatening violence. He shot 45% of three after the All-Star break. He is only 25 years old. Could Jazz help as a shooter? You bet. Could Jazz rehabilitate its value by reinterpreting it as a more offensive focal point? There are also possibilities for that.
• Patrick Beverley is absolutely away from home when he’s on the court, making incredibly positive defensive energy plays and missing with just the same speed essentially … but that’s a set of skills that, frankly, Jazz could have used in recent years. Could they keep it? For sure. Could they change him to the next team desperate for the defensive toughness of the perimeter? Certainly.
• Jarred Vanderbilt started almost every game last year with the Minnesota Timberwolves, who reached the playoffs at 22 years old. He was one of the best rebounders in the league. He then paired it with a legitimate stopper-level defense against the league’s elite perimeter players: he protected LeBron James and he protected Steph Curry. He can’t do much more than sink in attack, yet. Could you see if Will Hardy and his development staff can push him to new heights? Of couse. Could you move him to any team that needs a young defensive side? It would have absolutely value.
(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) LA Clippers baseman Patrick Beverley (21) reacts after being called up for a personal foul, in the second-round playoff action in the second game between the Utah Jazz and the LA Clippers, at the Living Arena, Thursday. June 10, 2021.
• Walker Kessler was named best college basketball defensive player last year. He is a tire protector, he rolls to the center of the rim, but with more mobility than these guys usually have in college. Sound familiar? Yes, he will be worse than Gobert, but he is a beginner with a tiny contract for the next four seasons. Could Jazz keep it as its Gobert-lite of the future? Yes. Could they choose to play a different style of defense and move it to another team that wants a big drop? Definitely.
• Leandro Bolmaro is a 2020 draft pick who didn’t play in the NBA until last season, but showed a few things during his NBA debut season. It reminds me a bit of Joe Ingles without a jump shot – he’s an excellent pick and roll game creator with tremendous 6-foot-6 vision, and also a tenacious, annoying defender who gives it his all. But that bit of “no jump shot” is obviously key. If the 21-year-old develops it, he will be one of the best role-playing players in the league. Without him, he will be on the sidelines. Could Jazz teach you that? May be. Could they let some other team find out? Of couse.
There are five interesting players. Are they beaters of the world? No, but four of them are young to very young and have a certain level of promise. The other, Beverley, is a well-known asset on the track. They are all extremely mobile, if Jazz wants it that way.
Then comes the draft election. Three of the elections received by the Jazz are completely unprotected: those of 2023, 2025 and 2027. The selection of the first round of 2029 they are receiving is protected, but only in the top five. Finally, they have the option to swap draft options in 2026.
Will the Wolves be very good next year? I would bet on it. But the period between 2022 and 2029 is only one really long period for any number of calamities to happen to the Wolves. Any or all of the KATs, Gobert or Anthony Edwards could be injured. Anyone could come to dislike Minnesota. Anyone could bother with each other. Anyone could age, develop, or recede unexpectedly. It’s not like the Wolves are playing in Miami or LA, which can be recovered quickly through free agency if there are problems.
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the NBA, it’s to wait for the unexpected. And when the unexpected happens at any time for the next seven years in Minnesota, Jazz will benefit enormously. Even if for some reason the entropy doesn’t hit, they’ll have five more swings to young, cheap players with an advantage at the end of the first round, you know, the kind of swing Gobert brought them.
Overnight, the Jazz go from owning one of the smallest chests of promising NBA promising assets to one of their largest. Yes, it cost them their talismanic center, the defining player of a decade of Jazz basketball. But because of this move, much more is possible for the next decade.