Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will host New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today for talks in Sydney.
Ardern is the first foreign leader to visit Australia since Albanese came to power last month.
New Zealand and Australia remain very close partners, and politicians on both sides of the ditch are often referred to as “family”.
However, even though the leaders of both countries are straddling huge areas of common ground whenever they are, there are still some real points of disagreement and tension in the relationship between Australia and New Zealand.
What will they talk about?
The two leaders are expected to discuss a number of issues. Many will be routine and without controversy.
For example, Albanese and Ardern will compare notes on how to manage the global economic shocks of the war in Ukraine, as well as the imminent threat of stagnation and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among other topics, leaders will discuss climate change and the global economy. (AAP: Lukas Coch)
Both countries are expected to express solidarity with the increasingly malicious behavior of authoritarian states, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the latest North Korean ballistic missile tests.
They will also find common ground on climate change. Although Mrs Ardern has established an effective working relationship with Scott Morrison, she is likely to have an easier ideological relationship with another Labor prime minister.
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The two prime ministers will also spend some time discussing the intensification of geopolitical competition in the Pacific.
Like Australia, New Zealand was alarmed when China announced that it had reached a security pact with the Solomon Islands, and Ardern called the deal “seriously worrying”.
Both Canberra and Wellington have watched with concern as China seeks to expand its trade and security ties to the region, and have been relieved to see Pacific Island countries politely curbing Beijing’s push for a new deal. covering infrastructure, trade, police and cybersecurity.
And while the two countries are already closely coordinating in the Pacific, they are likely to explore how they can leverage their joint resources more effectively to try to shape their trajectory.
What are the main points of friction?
Successive New Zealand governments have bitterly complained about Australia’s deportation policy, which has seen thousands of criminals with criminal records return to the trenches.
The policy is not specifically aimed at New Zealand, but disproportionately affects New Zealanders because they have special rights to live and work in Australia.
Jacinda Ardern said Australia’s deportation policy was “corrosive” to the bilateral relationship. (AAP: David Rowland)
The New Zealand government says many of the “back home” envoys have spent most, or all, of their lives in Australia and have little connection to their theoretical homeland.
They also complain that many of these people sent back, without tying up their family, commit serious crimes and contribute to increasing gang violence.
A recent New Zealand media investigation found that the deportees had committed more than 8,000 crimes since 2015.
After meeting with Morrison in Auckland in 2019, Ardern said the deportation policy was “corrosive” to the bilateral relationship.
The following year, Ms Ardern went even further during a press conference in Sydney, publicly telling Mr Ardern. Morrison: “Don’t deport your people and your problems.”
It is unclear whether Mr Albanese is willing to adopt a different strategy.
Labor has made it clear that it will not abandon the basic policy of deporting criminals, but some government sources have hinted that it may be willing to exercise a little more discretion to ensure that people without a connection to New Zealand are not dumped.
Ardern has made it clear that he will continue to put pressure on Australia on the issue, calling deportations a “major problem” for his country.
“Our concern has been that we have seen some of the really extreme examples: those with little or no connection to New Zealand, who have been deported to New Zealand,” he told a news conference this week.
“And then we see the consequences of this antisocial [behaviour] and this lack of connection at home.
“We want to see if we can move forward with some of these really difficult examples [that] New Zealand has faced. “
But Ms Ardern also did not seem very sure that the new Labor government would take a radically different approach.
When asked if Mr. Albanese might be willing to review the policy, Ms. Ardern did not comment, simply said, “Only time will tell.”
Albanese, Ardern to compare notes on China
While China’s presence in the Pacific will be a major point of discussion, both leaders can also discuss the delicate issue of their bilateral ties with Beijing.
Although there has been talk of a re-establishment between Australia and China after the federal election, Albanese has responded coldly to the initial, rather lukewarm, proposals from the Chinese government.
Leaders are likely to discuss China’s movements in the Pacific. (AP: Li Xiang / Xinhua)
His skepticism was probably compounded by the dangerous interception of a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) surveillance aircraft by a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea.
New Zealand’s relationship with China is much less strained than that of Australia. He has usually been more cautious in his language when it comes to Beijing, and last year there was a small diplomatic revolt when the New Zealand Minister of Commerce suggested that Australia could sever ties with China by showing his government more “respect”.
However, ties between Wellington and Beijing worsened earlier this month after Ms Ardern visited Washington and issued a joint statement with the Biden Administration, warning that a Chinese base in the Pacific could upset the strategic balance of the Biden. region.
The Chinese ambassador to Wellington responded by making a vague trade threat, saying New Zealand’s reputation in China as a “green, clean, open and friendly country” should not be “wasted”.
If Mr. Albanese offers some advice to Ms. Ardern on how best to respond to this warning, it will be drafted very carefully.
Australia, of course, has an intimate knowledge of Chinese trade punishments and a fairly solid track record in absorbing the economic pain that accompanies them.
Still, while New Zealand has a lot in common with Australia, this is an experience I would rather not share with my nearest neighbor.