The rejection of the Liberals in so many seats gives Albanese the gift of time. He does not seem to care at all about the likely rise of Peter Dutton as the leader of the opposition – someone he respects but someone who has a specific political personality for many voters. As a right-wing warrior, Dutton may be the leader the Liberals need to keep the show together, but not the leader they will want in a few years when they try to reclaim the midpoint of Australian politics. Their big advantage is their base in Queensland, where Labor fought very badly.
The Nationals retained their 16 seats, but the Liberals are looking for a very slow return to power unless they miraculously regain their blue-collar territory in Sydney and Melbourne.
Independent MPs like Helen Haines and Zali Steggall show how to hold a previously liberal seat for years after the first victory; newcomers like Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender will likely repeat the pattern. The success of the pro-independence movement provides stability for Labor.
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The toughest negotiations for Albanese, with Greens leader Adam Bandt, are just beginning. No party leader has a bloc that can join the Conservatives to reject the Labor agenda or force a motion of censure on Albanese and his government. Only a mysterious alliance of liberals, nationals, independents and greens could do that.
Bandt will shape this parliamentary term with a blockade of 12 Greens in the Senate. He wants to end new coal and gas projects, which the new government is unlikely to grant. But is he withdrawing from his old calls to completely eliminate coal and gas? So far, Albanese believes it can meet its election commitments, including its target of 43% emission cuts by 2030.
A Labor reporter, looking at the election results, puts it this way: “Show me how they could prevent Labor from running for a second term.” In any reading, it is very difficult to show.
New leaders make mistakes. New governments can squander their victories. Albanese seems very confident that he can hold on to power if he stands firm.
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