As more Conservative MPs go public with their letters of censure to Boris Johnson, the possibility of a vote on the post of Prime Minister grows. Here’s how the process works:
How is a vote triggered?
The rules stipulate that 15% of Conservative MPs must submit a letter of censure to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, for a vote to be held.
Deputies do not have to reveal their identities, although some will choose to make themselves public under pressure from their constituents or to encourage others to do the same.
There are 54 deputies needed to force a no-confidence vote, and they can file a letter in person at Brady’s office, ask a colleague to drop it, or email it directly.
The only person who knows how many letters have been sent is Brady himself. Such is the level of mistrust among Conservative MPs, various rumors have spread to deter people from filing letters of censure.
Brady does not need, as has been stated, to call all Conservative MPs who have sent a letter to check that they are satisfied with his decision. Nor, as others have suggested, does he approve of a list of those who have sent letters to Johnson’s ministerial aides, known as private parliamentary secretaries.
There have also been rumors that government whips have previously been posted to monitor Brady’s office, to spy on those entering and leaving.
What happens if you reach threshold 54?
There is some discretion in Brady, but he is expected to tell the prime minister and then arrange a private vote of confidence “as soon as possible.”
Most MPs agree that it is not practical to hold such a vote during the recess, which ends next Monday, and especially not during the festive weekend of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
In December 2018, Brady told Theresa May that the threshold had been reached and that a vote would be held on her position as Prime Minister the next day. The speed of the procedure was seen as an attempt to give as little time as possible to their opponents to organize against the current government.
How is voting organized?
A ballot box is securely stored in the office of one of the 1922 executive members and will be dusted off if a no-confidence vote is called.
It will probably be placed in the same room where MPs meet weekly for committee meetings, on the first floor of the Palace of Westminster and in the center of a long corridor, overlooking the River Thames.
Throughout the day, all Conservative MPs will be able to vote by secret ballot. Photographs inside the commission room will be prohibited. This is intended to deter party whips from demanding photographic evidence that a MP has voted in favor of, which means that even if they are on the government’s “payroll”, they can freely decide whether to vote for or against Johnson.
This is not to say that supporters and opponents of the Prime Minister will not spend the day pushing frantically and counting the promises of each MP to ask how they voted.
If a Member is far from Westminster, he or she may designate a colleague to vote on his or her behalf as a proxy.
How is the result announced?
Brady will probably do as he did in 2018 and gather MPs and journalists in the same parliamentary committee room where that day was voted. He will then declare whether or not the parliamentary party has confidence in the Prime Minister, and will reveal the number of votes cast in both directions.
If Johnson survives, the 1922 Committee will not be able to cast a vote of confidence for another year.