Australia has almost zero chances of getting a submarine from the current U.S. program, experts say, as another report shows the U.S. is struggling to meet its own needs.
The defense faces a capacity gap as the existing Collins-class fleet withdraws and hopes to fade to get a new submarine under the Aukus agreement by 2040.
Under the Aukus agreement, Australia will buy at least eight submarines from the United States or the United Kingdom.
Former Defense Secretary Peter Dutton suggested the US could give Australia a couple of its ships, a suggestion that was largely rejected.
The latest report to Congress on the progress of U.S. shipbuilding efforts shows that submarines “experienced cost growth” in the first part of the program, and there is now a shortage of spare parts, maintenance delays. existing ships and concerns about shipyards. capacity.
Complications including, among others, the pandemic have led to delays in the production of US Navy-class Virginia submarines.
“Some observers have expressed concern about the ability of the industrial base to execute this workload without finding bottlenecks or other production issues in one or both programs,” the report says.
The U.S. plans to build its own fleet of at least 60 nuclear-powered ships, but the report released this week shows that it will reach a minimum of 46 ships in 2028, 50 in 3032 and between 60 and 69 in 2052. trying to increase capacity, but will still struggle to achieve its own goals for decades.
Shadow Defense spokesman Andrew Hastie, while in London, has challenged the UK to compete against the US to supply the first two submarines by 2030 by increasing its construction capacity, but experts have also rejected this idea.
Marcus Hellyer, a senior analyst at the Institute for Strategic Policy in Australia, said Australia’s “only way” to get a nuclear-powered submarine by 2030 would be if the US gave us “one of its own ships “. “But their number is declining when they want an increase,” he said.
“The submarine working group [which will report in March next year] you have to look at all the options, but at some point you have to draw a line and say this is just a distraction. “
Hellyer said this meant that any submarine Australia would buy would probably be from the next generation of American submarines, which will start to be bought in the mid-2030s and will be much more expensive.
He has estimated, based on the current model, that the entire program to build eight submarines will eventually cost $ 171 billion, including inflation.
Research presented to the US Congress suggests that the next model would cost at least A $ 3 billion more (each) than the current model, further increasing the price.
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Hellyer said looking at rising costs if Australia gets the newest ship was a way to illustrate the problem of planning to buy submarines from another country that is continually improving and evolving its own fleet.
“What is our philosophy here? We continue to build a ship as the US moves forward, and we stay with this orphan … or do we move at the same pace with the US? ”He said.
“This would mean that our small fleet of eight ships could be different [models]. ”
Rex Patrick, a former South Australian senator and diver, said Australia “will not leave submarines off the US line”. “The US is involved in operations around the world and they are important operations and the US Navy will not cede any capacity for Australia to get submarines. [so they can] submerge your toe in the water, ”he said.
“All publicly available material points out that the US does not provide us with a submarine.”
Hellyer said there was also “no way” for the UK to save a submarine, as it is only building seven of the Astute class (which is one of the options considered for Australia) before moving to a new model. “The UK is currently finishing its Astute program,” he said. “They must wrap it to transfer resources to the Dreadnaught program.
“They don’t have the capacity to build us submarines.”
There have been suggestions that Australia could pay for the US or the UK to expand its production capacity.
“You can get anything with money,” Patrick said. “But that’s taxpayer money.”
Both Patrick and Hellyer said buying a conventional (non-nuclear) submarine from another country “from the shelf” would be another way to fill the capacity gap.
Defense Minister Richard Marles has consistently said he keeps an open mind about the solution to the capacity gap.
“As we go through the process now of looking at what solution we are pursuing, we also want to not only determine that solution, but also find out if there is any way to put it online long before the 2040s and to the extent that any Hi there is a capacity gap, what are the means to close it? he said earlier this month.
“None of these questions have obvious answers. It’s part of the job we’re doing right now. But as we announce early next year what capacity, or which submarine, we’re going to pursue, we really want to have answers to all of these in that moment “.
Guardian Australia has contacted the Marles office for further comments.