With BC’s independent COVID-19 modeling group predicting another wave of infections will spread across the province and peak in August, weekly data released Thursday by the BC Disease Control Center they show the beginning of the increase.
For the first time in two months, the number of coronavirus-positive patients in BC hospitals has increased this week. There were 369 in the hospital, including 36 in critical care, as of Thursday.
This graph shows the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 on Thursdays in BC since the province switched to a “hospital census” model in January. (CTV)
The BCCDC informs anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 on admission to hospital as a COVID-related hospitalization, even if the disease is not the primary reason why the patient requires hospital care.
Since the province switched to this “hospital census” model to track hospitalizations in January, there have been as many as 985 positive COVID patients on a Thursday and only 255.
The incoming wave of infections is the third driven by a variant of the Omicron strain of the virus.
The independent modeling group predicts that subvariant BA.5, which is thought to account for most new cases, will fuel the latest increase in infections, although it is unclear how high the wave will rise or what impact. will have in the BC. health system you already have.
The BCCDC’s latest report on coronavirus lineages in the province does not divide BA.5, but it did show the proportion of “other” variants – which includes BA.5, BA.4, and some strains of BA.2. which was increasing.
The “other” category accounted for about half of all coronavirus genomes sequenced in the province from the week of June 19-25.
The BCCDC said BA.5 increased most rapidly, accounting for about 40 percent of all cases during the week in question, which ended 10 days ago.
CASES AND WASTEWATER
Hospitalizations are generally a delayed indicator of COVID-19 transmission. They usually do not begin to rise or fall until a week or more after the number of infections begins to rise or fall.
This effect is somewhat offset by BC data, however, because the number of hospitalized patients is the only figure the BCCDC publishes in real time. All other data the center publishes each week is based on the last completed “epidemiological week.”
Thursday’s data on infections and wastewater monitoring are from the week of June 26 to July 2, meaning they are five days behind the number of patients in the hospital.
However, the number of new cases reported during the period was an increase: the first time weekly cases have increased since the epidemiological week that ended April 30.
The BCCDC reported 765 new laboratory-confirmed infections from June 26 to July 2, compared to 620 the previous week.
These totals include only “laboratory-confirmed, laboratory-probable, and epi-linked cases,” according to the BCCDC. They do not include the results of the rapid home tests, which are the only type of tests available to most BC residents, meaning the numbers published each week do not capture the total spread of COVID-19 in the province. .
Lower Mainland wastewater data can help approximate the trend of infections among people who do not meet the requirements for laboratory testing.
As of July 2, viral loads at four of the five Lower Mainland wastewater treatment plants showed increasing trends, with only the Lulu Island plant showing a modest decrease in coronavirus concentrations, according to the BCCDC’s weekly “status report”.
At the Lions Gate plant on the North Shore, viral loads have risen 115 per cent week-on-week, and at the Northwest Langley plant, they have risen 251 per cent over the past three weeks.
VACCINATIONS AND FUTURE PLANNING
Earlier this week, Health Minister Adrian Dix told reporters at a news conference that the province was preparing for a resurgence of COVID-19 in the fall, and said everyone in BC should expect to receive a booster dose of the vaccine at that time.
Dix plans to hold another press conference with Dr. Penny Ballem on Friday afternoon, in which she will talk about the province’s vaccination strategy.
Although vaccination has not prevented waves of infections caused by Omicron and its subvariants, it has significantly decreased the risk of serious consequences of the disease.
BCCDC data show that a person with three or more doses of vaccine is about half as likely to be admitted to the hospital as an unvaccinated person of the same age and about one-third more likely to require critical care.
As cases and hospitalizations in BC begin to increase again, so has the number of health workers who do not work due to illness.
Some 16,400 health workers took at least one day off during the week of June 20, according to Dix, compared to the roughly 15,000 recorded a few weeks earlier.
Not all of these rest days were caused by COVID-19, but industry workers, who are already facing exhaustion after more than two years of the pandemic, say the increased spread of coronavirus puts more stress on the system.
Hospital Employees Union policy and planning coordinator Mike Old said health workers are facing an “alarming” situation with regard to COVID-19.
“We’re seeing health care vacancies for diseases we haven’t seen since late January,” he said. “The workers are very, very exhausted.”
Old said a survey of its members found that one in four said their employers did not fill due to illness or other vacancies, and one in three is considering leaving health care in the next two years.
“It is very important for members of our community to understand that when they protect themselves from COVID transmission, they are also protecting our health care system,” he said. “Our healthcare workers need all the help they can get.”
Dix said the province continues its efforts to strengthen the health system, while recruiting and training more workers.
When asked if the government would consider recovering any of its previous COVID-19-related restrictions in the fall, Dix declined to rule it out.
“No option is ever ruled out,” he said, adding that officials still recommend wearing a mask indoors.
“I’m the health minister. I have access to a lot of information about health care; I wear masks in indoor public spaces,” Dix said.
With archives by Andrew Weichel and Maria Weisgarber of CTV News Vancouver