BC recorded nearly 10,000 more deaths than expected during an 18-month period of the pandemic, but with less than a quarter attributed to COVID-19, it’s unclear why.
The accompanying issues and questions were published Monday (May 30) by the people of the University of British Columbia and public health professor Kim McGrail in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.
It collected all excess deaths, whether caused by COVID-19 or not, from the provinces of Canada during the period from March 14, 2020 to October 23, 2021. Excess deaths are those that are produce beyond the number expected by Statistics Canada.
For BC, StatCan estimated that there would be 74,096 deaths during the 18 months studied. In fact, an additional 11.4% or 9,496 people died, bringing the total count to 83,592.
The mystery, however, lies not in the excessive number of deaths, but in why most of them are not documented as directly caused by COVID-19. Of the 9,496 deaths, only 2,109 or 22.2% are attributed to the virus.
McGrail says there is no easy answer.
(“Excess Mortality, COVID-19 and Health Care Systems in Canada”, Kimberlyn McGrail)
One possibility is that BC is underestimating the number of people dying from COVID-19, reporting its cause of death as something else.
Another source could be the record number of deaths from drug toxicity recorded in 2020 and 2021. StatCan takes these deaths into account when projecting the deaths expected for next year, but the pandemic caused a sudden increase in fatal overdoses. that the agency could “I did not predict. Between 2019 and 2020, the total number of overdose deaths in BC went from 981 to 1,768, before rising again to 2,236 in 2021.
The BC heat dome also had an unexpected impact on mortality rates, McGrail says. Nearly 600 people died during the extreme weather event of 2021, according to the BC Coroners Service.
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McGrail says delayed appointments and surgeries, fewer hospital beds and worsening doctor shortages are other possible contributors. However, it will probably never be possible to quantify them, he adds.
The real problem with McGrail’s research, however, is the lack of consistency in provincial mortality reports.
According to his report, BC had the highest proportion of excess non-COVID deaths in the country during the study period, but McGrail says that because each province reports deaths differently and is based on different definitions, it is difficult to compare them reliably.
Consistency is vital to assessing national health care responses and working toward better future solutions, McGrail says. For example, it would allow policymakers to determine how different pandemic policies in the provinces affected mortality rates, he says.
In the future, McGrail says he would like to see Canada invest in a shared and consistent reporting system and deeper forensic analysis.
(“Excess Mortality, COVID-19 and Health Care Systems in Canada”, Kimberlyn McGrail)
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