The President of the United States, Joe Biden, gives a press conference on the last day of the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on June 30, 2022.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurfoto | Getty Images
President Joe Biden is heading to Saudi Arabia this week as part of his first trip to the Middle East as commander-in-chief.
It goes with a list of goals, including energy security, bringing the Saudis and Israel closer together, advancing a truce in Yemen and establishing a more cohesive regional front against Iran.
But it’s a controversial move for this president, and no one is sure how much he will really achieve.
The planned visit has provoked much criticism, both from the right and the left, for being what some call a “shameful” descent and for revealing a clear reversal of the harsh talk against the kingdom that Biden had used during his candidacy and in the first months of his presidency.
Now, things are different. Gasoline in the US is more expensive than ever, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has drastically reduced the world’s oil supply and Biden really wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to be friends. Will the trip then feel like an uncomfortable apology or a reinstatement for two countries with mutual interests?
“I wouldn’t go. I wouldn’t shake his hand,” MP Adam Schiff (D, California) said in an interview in June, when asked about the president’s planned meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He then referred to the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the administration attributed to the Crown Prince. The Saudi government has repeatedly rejected the accusation.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends the G20 leaders ’summit by videoconference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on October 30, 2021.
Royal Court of Saudi Arabia | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
While campaigning in 2019, Biden promised to treat the Saudi kingdom as “the outcast they are” and as president, vocally criticized the country’s human rights abuses. He also insisted on seeing King Salman of Saudi Arabia as his counterpart, instead of the 36-year-old Crown Prince, who directs the day-to-day affairs of the kingdom.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in March refused to heed a call from Biden, as the US leader called on the Gulf states to increase oil production after banning Russian oil imports.
And in an interview in early March in the Atlantic, when asked if he thought Biden had misunderstood him, the Crown Prince replied, “I just don’t care. It’s up to him to think about the interests of Biden. ‘America.’
A “welcome restart”
It seems that Biden has come to put these interests ahead of what was perhaps a more idealistic narrative.
On Saturday, the president published an article in the Washington Post titled “Why I Go to Saudi Arabia.” In it, he argued that “from the outset, my goal was to reorient, but not break, relations with a country that has been a strategic partner for 80 years.” He stressed the importance of the US-Saudi relationship for stability in the region and for US interests.
Biden is not the first president to present himself with a platform “human rights will be fundamental to my foreign policy,” only to confront his office with the realities of the Middle East.
Hussein Ibish
Senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute of Washington
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the kingdom’s royal court, sees Biden’s visit as a tonic for damaged relations.
“I think the mistake the Biden administration made was that it brought the rhetoric of its campaign to the administration” and that it “hit a wall of realism,” he told CNBC.
The visit, he said, “is a re-establishment. And I think it’s a welcome re-establishment. Because the relationship is important to the kingdom as well. And they’d like those clouds to pass.”
“I think by virtue of visiting the kingdom it leaves it behind and that allows things to go back to where they were with America before,” Shihabi added.
Biden says human rights will continue to be high on his agenda. But many observers say this is unlikely, given other security and energy-related interests.
“Biden is not the first president to come forward with a platform of‘ human rights will be fundamental to my foreign policy ’, only to confront his office with the realities of the Middle East,” Hussein Ibish said. , a resident academic in Arabic. Gulf States Institute in Washington.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry and the White House did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Petroleum and Israel
Biden has downplayed what many analysts say is the desperate need for his administration to see Saudis and OPEC members pump more oil in order to ease record gas prices for Americans.
“In the absence of the war in Ukraine, the tightening of the oil market and rising oil prices, there would be no rapprochement with Saudi Arabia,” said Martin Indyk, a former US diplomat and member of the Council. of Foreign Affairs, in an interview. with the Financial Times.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, U.S. President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed show their copies of the agreements signed while attending the ceremony of signing the Abraham Accords, which normalize relations between Israel and part of its Middle East. neighbors, in a strategic realignment of Middle Eastern countries against Iran, on the southern turf of the White House in Washington, USA, September 15, 2020.
Tom Brenner | Reuters
But Biden has largely rejected it, stressing Israel’s security as a top priority. The trip “has to do with national security for them, for the Israelis,” he told reporters in June. This could be an effort to shift the narrative to an issue that has more support in Washington: Republicans and most Democrats support Arab-Israeli normalization.
The fact that Biden will fly from Israel directly to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is a small indication of progress on this goal. The Biden administration has also been pushing for more military interoperability between Israel and the Arab states to form a U.S.-led unified coalition that would create more influence against Iran.
But there is very unlikely to be an open compromise, as security cooperation between the kingdom and Israel is likely to continue “behind the scenes,” as it has done for several years, according to Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief analyst at MENA from risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.
What does Saudi Arabia want?
While critics have said the meeting will put the ball completely on the Saudi court, there are a few things the kingdom longs for from the U.S. – primarily a railroad security guarantee.
“Improved air defense,” Shihabi said. “Air defense is absolutely crucial to the importance of the whole peninsula, the whole GCC, and I think that’s where Biden can make a big difference. A more formal commitment of resources that would ensure the GCC’s airspace would be the great demand. “
An Aramco oil tanker was engulfed in flames after a missile attack claimed by Yemen’s Hutis. The strike took place on the eve of the Saudi F1 Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche circuit.
Peter J Fox | Getty Images
Biden angered the Saudis when he withdrew U.S. Patriot missile batteries and other advanced military systems from Saudi Arabia last year, even though the kingdom was being hit by missile and rocket attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. and other groups supported by Iran.
“Unlikely to lead to progress”
Despite having several interests or shared interests, Biden still can’t make a breakthrough in relationships, says Vert Maplecroft’s Soltvedt.
“The US is asking Saudi Arabia to increase the rate of oil production have fallen on deaf ears. That is unlikely to change,” he said.
Biden advisers have also spoken out that Saudi Arabia is committed to staying fully aligned with the US against Russia and China. But some warn that the rapprochement effort will not succeed.
“There is little to suggest that Biden’s strategy of filling the Crown Prince … with concessions will lead to a sustainable commitment of the United Arab Emirates to the United States in the great power competition of this century,” Trita Parsi said. co-founder of the Quincy Institute. for Responsible Statecraft, he wrote in an opinion piece for MSNBC.
He argued that making a military commitment to protect the Saudis and other Gulf allies is not in the interest of the United States.
U.S. military personnel stand next to a M142 high-mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) during Saudi Arabia’s first World Defense Show north of the capital Riyadh on March 6 of 2022.
Fayez Nureldine | Afp | Getty Images
“Committing American lives to defending these Arab dictatorships is far more outrageous than a shameful handshake with the Saudi Crown Prince,” Parsi said. “Biden will break at once his promises to bring troops from the Middle East, make Saudi Arabia pay a price and end the war in Yemen.”
Still, others argue that a strong relationship with the Saudi leadership, specifically with the Crown Prince, is vital to maintaining U.S. influence in the region and the world.
“Great power competition with China is not possible by moving away from the Gulf region and expecting the best,” Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute said. “On the contrary, it means continued commitment.”
“It is a plausible partnership for broad and shared mutual interests,” he added, “although the values are not shared or mutual in many cases.”