Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s push to speed up the fight against climate change is sparking a showdown with the country’s farmers, who say it is threatening the food supply and their profits.
The government proposes to cut fertilizer emissions by 30 percent by 2030 as part of a plan to reach net zero in the next three decades. But producers say that to achieve that, they may have to significantly reduce grain production at a time when the world is scrambling for more supplies. Also at stake is the estimated $10.4 billion (US$8.08 billion) that farmers could lose this decade from reduced production.
The tension comes as efforts to reduce energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are lagging, so policymakers are increasingly looking to other sectors, including agriculture. Climate targets on nitrogen in the Netherlands, for example, sparked protests from farmers worried they would be forced out of business. Livestock and fertilizers are key sources of nitrogen emissions. Angry Dutch farmers brought cows to parliament, threatened to kill them and blockaded food distribution centers serving large supermarkets.
“If you push farmers against the wall with no wiggle room, I don’t know where this is going to end,” said Gunter Jochum, president of the Wheat Growers Association of Western Canada, which represents producers who grow about 3 million of acres “Just look at what’s happening in Europe, in the Netherlands. They’ve had enough.”
Production losses could be significant, according to an analysis commissioned by Fertilizer Canada. According to the report, Canada could lose more than 160 million metric tons of canola, corn and spring wheat between 2023 and 2030 because of the plan. That’s nearly double Canada’s expected grain production this season.
Emissions from agriculture have skyrocketed in recent decades as farmers apply more fertilizer to boost production. Emissions from cropland rose 87% to about 7.6 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide over three decades to 2020, according to the latest data from Environment and Climate Change Canada. By comparison, emissions from oil and gas extraction more than tripled by 69 metric tons of carbon dioxide over the same period.
Farm groups say the extra fertilizer is resulting in more food. Spring wheat yields increased more than 40 per cent over the past decade to 2020, compared with the 1990s, Statistics Canada data show. Similarly, canola yields increased by 56 percent during the same period.
“We’re talking about the food supply,” said Karen Proud, executive director of Fertilizer Canada, an industry group representing major manufacturers and retailers, including Nutrien Ltd. and Koch Fertilizer Canada. “Canada is already among the top countries that use nitrogen efficiently. We don’t have much room to go before we start affecting yields.”
While the reduction target is “ambitious”, it does not “represent a mandatory reduction in fertilizer use” and action will focus on improving nitrogen management, said Cameron Newbigging, a spokesman for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in a statement. The approach to achieving reductions is still being developed and the government is accepting comments until August 31 and will develop “the next steps in the approach” once the consultations are complete, he said.
Farmers are already trying to reduce their use of fertilizers because costs have soared. They use specialized equipment to apply it more efficiently, said Wheat Growers’ Jochum. Government incentives to offset the cost of new equipment or soil testing could help reduce emissions without jeopardizing food production, said Jim Everson, president of the Canola Council of Canada.
“I hope the government has the ability to listen,” said Bill Campbell, president of Keystone Agricultural Producers. “I certainly hope the policies don’t become reactionary.”
Saskatchewan grower Ian McCreary says more education is needed to help farmers reduce fertilizer use. McCreary, a member of Farmers for Climate Solutions, estimates his fertilizer use dropped by up to 20 percent per acre after spending $50,000 on equipment changes and mapping and testing his farm’s soil to determine how much nitrogen needs The move probably saved him $20,000 in input costs this year and hasn’t cut into returns, he said.
“We’ve simply taken nitrogen out of areas of the field that weren’t using it anyway,” McCreary said.