The east coast of Australia will receive a downpour this weekend as moisture coming from the tropics is linked to a southern weather system.
Key points:
- The weather has been caused by timeless rain at the upper end
- People in flood-affected regions are advised to be cautious but not worry
- The rain is expected to really start once two weather systems are connected in the next few days
“We’re expecting rainfall on most of the east coast,” said Christie Johnson, a meteorology expert with the Bureau of Meteorology.
The heaviest falls over the weekend may focus on the coast of New South Wales south of Sydney, according to the BOM model.
But many regions from Darwin to Hobart can expect rain from now until early next week.
Ms Johnson stressed that areas affected by flooding in the rivers north and southeast of Queensland were not considered at serious risk, for the time being, of extreme rain this weekend.
“We don’t want people to worry, we just want them to be alert, be up to date on forecasts and be alert to any warnings that are issued, because our teams of hydrologists are watching it very closely,” he said.
The BOM is forecasting rain over a wide area of Australia’s east coast this weekend.
A very humid dry season
Non-seasonal rain will begin in Darwin, which is expected to receive up to 35 millimeters over the next few days.
It comes at a time of year when the average monthly rainfall is less than 2 mm.
“It’s the dry season up there,” said climatologist Kimberley Reid of the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
“It’s not unprecedented, but it’s pretty rare.”
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Tropical moisture will flow through western Queensland and cause rainfall in much of the state.
“We could see a total of 10 to 40 or even 50 mm of rain through this area on Friday, which is obviously quite unusual considering the rain we normally see in this part of the world at this time of year. year, ”Johnson said.
Experts say it is difficult to predict exactly where the rain will fall at this stage. (Provided by: Drew Chapman)
When systems collide
Top End rain will first affect Queensland’s tropical north coast on Thursday and Friday, causing potentially heavy showers.
From then on, the storm will link up with a weather system to the south, causing very unpredictable rains.
“There could be rain in virtually any part of East Queensland,” Johnson said.
“The central coast of Queensland north of Brisbane seems to be raining a bit more, especially on Sunday and early next week, but there is a lot of uncertainty around that.”
Brisbane can expect up to 15mm of rain a day over the weekend, possibly increasing early next week.
As the two systems connect over the weekend, rain is expected to focus on NSW, where strong localized falls could occur.
“The current system is evolving in such a way that it looks like there could be a focus for the weekend on the southern part of the NSW coast: the Ilwarwarra and the northern part of the south coast,” Johnson said.
Sydney can expect daily rainfall of up to 50mm between Friday and early next week.
Residents will wait for the storms to be bitten and without barking. (Provided by: Cliff Gralton)
“Event that breaks the waves”
The rain of the dry season has caught the attention of climatologists who say the weather pattern is similar to what is usually seen in February rather than June.
“This is a great connected event,” Ms. Reid said.
“We’re at the beginning of what we call a wave-breaking event.”
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He said the lightning current had split in half, sending one lightning north to the tropics and another south.
“You have a time you’d expect at the mid-latitudes that appear in the Northern Territory,” he said.
“So the waves in the atmosphere break like an ocean wave.
“When that happens, you get strong weather events like a trough and a low cut.”
Ms Reid says it is normal for models to be different at this stage. (Instagram: @jordancantelo)
Reid said the forecast uncertainties reflect how different computer models had predicted the development of weather systems.
“Exactly where the rain will fall depends a lot on the position of the low-pressure system over NSW,” he said.
“So if you move 100 miles further north than we could predict, then that’s when you get massive errors in forecasting.
“As we get closer to the events that happen, the ideal is for the models to start converging and they should start saying the same thing.
“But when you’re a few days out, expect them to be inaccurate, especially with the rain.”