As much as the British people and their elected representatives have wanted a break from politics during the platinum jubilee celebrations, the question of the country’s political leadership has arisen at many street and garden parties.
“I would say that in all the events I’ve been to, and a lot of them, the vast majority have politely tried to avoid it where they could,” said a Conservative MP with a southern constituency.
“But about half a dozen people have been looking for me to talk about Boris and everyone told me I had to go. These were Tory people. They said they trusted me to do my homework in the next few days.”
The same MP, who has not publicly stated that Johnson should be fired, although he has been critical of him, said he has received about 400 emails on the issue of leadership in recent days, only four of which supported the first. minister. “It’s pretty overwhelming on the part of people who normally vote Tory,” he said, giving an indication of his direction of thought.
Johnson’s feeling that support has been steadily declining has been confirmed by reports from jubilee parties related by other Conservative MPs.
“People haven’t been great in politics because they’re the queen, have they?” “But those who mentioned it on the circuit said ‘well done to say what you said’ … and everyone thought I should go.”
It was also widely observed among voters, he added, that Johnson had been booed by a crowd full of royal enthusiasts in front of St. Paul’s Cathedral on Friday when he arrived with his wife Carrie: “His whole argument has been that he is popular and that he is a winner. The reaction proved that he is no longer very popular. This kind of thing will happen again. “
Boris Johnson booed as he arrived at the Queen’s Jubilee Thanksgiving Service: Video
Another Conservative MP from a northern seat reported that the reaction of his constituents had been more varied and less predictable, with almost as many defending Johnson as wanting him out, although he had also received enough discontent to do so. writing to Sir Graham Brady. chairman of the 1922 Committee of Deputies, to demand a vote of confidence. He had concluded that his effort to survive as a Member of Parliament in a seat with a small majority would be much more useful to oppose the Prime Minister at the gates, than to continue trying to “defend the completely indefensible.”
It is not entirely impossible that this weekend, as the country marks the seven decades of the queen’s throne, could be Boris Johnson’s last as prime minister.
If that were the case, he would have served on Downing Street for less than three years, even less than his predecessor: Theresa May, whose short term did so much to end a painful end as her disagreements over Brexit. it lasted three years and 11 days.
Deputies return to Westminster on Monday. The issue of leadership will be on everyone’s mind. The tension will be almost unbearable for Johnson and his followers, on the one hand, and those who want him to leave, on the other.
The focus will be on both Brady and Johnson himself. For the past few days, Brady, from his constituency in Altrincham and Sale West, has been overseeing the number of letters and emails that have come from Conservative MPs asking for a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister.
Even before the break of the jubilee, about 30 Conservatives had made it public and demanded that the Prime Minister leave and more than a dozen more had been very critical. Some of Johnson’s detractors said they sensed that the magic number had been reached even before he left for his constituency 10 days ago.
Once he reaches 54, Brady must contact the Prime Minister at the earliest opportunity to communicate the bad news to him and to arrange a secret ballot of the 359 Conservative MPs. A senior Conservative source said: “If we get to the number, it will happen as soon as it is realistic. Obviously, if the Russians invade East Anglia there would be some margin, but unless there are unforeseen events, the vote would be one or two. days.
Theresa May won a vote of confidence in 2018, but had resigned in six months. Photography: Andy Buchanan / PA
The figure may have risen to 54 in recent days and Brady – aware of the need not to let a political crisis overshadow the jubilee – delayed saying so until the festivities and concerts were over. Brady won’t say.
Only he knows the numbers. None of its staff have access to letters and emails. The rules state that if there is a vote of confidence, Johnson must win a majority (180) to remain a Conservative leader and remain prime minister. If you win, the rules state that there can be no other vote of confidence for at least one year. But Johnson and all Conservative MPs know it’s not just about winning: other factors also determine whether a leader survives to fight another election.
It is also about the margin of victory and the number of rebels. When Theresa May was put to a vote of confidence in December 2018, she won with 200 MPs expressing confidence in her and 117 saying the opposite. So almost twice as many of her MPs and ministers supported her as she did. But without a Conservative majority in the Commons after the 2017 general election, she was terribly weakened at a time when she desperately needed numerical strength to reach her Brexit deal in Parliament, and in six months had resigned.
Johnson’s starting position seems much stronger. He has a working majority of 75 in the Commons, taking into account the non-voting president and his deputies, as well as the non-sitting Sinn Féin MPs. But while he is likely to get a simple majority, the big question many of his critics and supporters are asking this weekend is how many could turn against him once the contest is called.
“That’s the key,” said one Conservative rebel. “If between 75 and 100 votes against him, I think he would have big problems. He would continue, but it would be much harder for him to govern at a time of economic hardship and much harder to get legislation.”
That’s why some rebel Conservatives, including some who have already sent letters to Brady, now believe it would be best to delay a vote of confidence until after two critical by-elections on June 23 in Tiverton and Honiton, where Conservatives are under threat. . in a normally secure Conservative seat in the Liberal Democrats, and in Wakefield, where Labor is expected to regain one of the traditional strongholds it lost to the Conservatives in 2019.
If the Conservatives lose both contests in a wave of anger against Johnson for Partygate, then there is a feeling within the party in general that all bets could be void.
“It will be at that moment that the message will really reach the comrades that, rather than being an election winner, our leader has become an election loser,” the Conservative rebel said. “So for those of us who want him out, it might be best to wait until the time of maximum danger, and probably around June 24.”