Boris Johnson could face the prospect of another vote of no-confidence in a year after Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, refused to rule out changing the rules.
Some Conservative rebels hope that after the prime minister faces calls from 41% of his own MPs to resign, a second bid to remove him could come sooner than expected.
Under current 1922 Committee rules, a leader who wins a censure vote is immune from facing another for 12 months, which means Johnson is likely to remain the Conservative leader until June 2023. at least.
However, the 18 officers of the committee can change the rules and reduce the period of immunity to six months or less.
Some agents are willing to put pressure on Johnson and would support reducing the time before he can be challenged again, but they expect what they believe are the next two most dangerous moments for him.
This month’s Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections, which the Conservatives hold but hope to lose to Labor and Liberal Democrats respectively, are likely to be used as ammunition by critics of the Prime Minister to argue that it is no longer an asset. and that the party faces elimination in the next general election.
Further investigation into the Downing Street offending party by the privileges committee will begin shortly, with lawmakers expected to report back in the fall.
Gathering evidence from the committee could involve interviewing Johnson as part of his investigation into whether he tricked parliament into repeatedly insisting that Covid’s rules had not been broken, leading to more embarrassing coverage with possible recommended sanctions if found in against him.
Although Brady said it was unlikely that the rules would be changed to allow another censorship vote on Johnson before next summer, he left the door open to the possibility.
“It’s not something we as an executive have discussed at all in this House,” Brady told Times Radio.
She said that after Theresa May won a no-confidence vote against her by a larger margin, the committee considered changing the rules, but ultimately decided not to.
“I am just thinking about it because of the amount of speculation [there] has been in the media, “Brady continued.” Of course, it’s technically possible that the laws may change in the future. And the rules may change in the future. But I think it’s important that we say that the rule that is in place and that is likely to be maintained is that there is a one-year grace period after a vote of confidence. “
Even if the committee decides not to change the rules again, former Conservative leader William Hague warned that Johnson could be fired in other ways.
“One way or another, when you have that level of disaffection in your own party, it won’t end well,” he told House magazine.
“I don’t know how it will end, but it will end with a kind of car accident in the cabinet, or some revolt by the activists, or a change of rules for another leadership vote, or an electoral defeat. Everything will end badly. “
Hague added that “when one can see that something will end badly, one must do something and take responsibility as a leader to do what is necessary, even if it means deviating from the path.”
Johnson still retains public support for his first team, with only two resignations: John Lamont as a ministerial aide and John Penrose as an anti-corruption tsar.
Michael Gove said he continued to support the Prime Minister with enthusiasm.
“If you have been in politics for a while, as I have been, there are always mistakes that you can look back on,” the promotion secretary said. “But I think the prime minister is doing a good job.”
Gove also stressed that he would not run against Johnson again for leadership and urged rebel colleagues to “show that the government is focused on offering to people across the UK”.