Guy is understandably frustrated by the events of the past fortnight. The Labor government has been plagued by scandal since it was elected in 2014 and, more recently, like Guy’s office, it has lost a number of senior political posts, albeit with much less fanfare.
The Andrews government has certainly done enough to lose the election, but the opposition has been so depleted that it has been unable to capitalize on Labour’s problems.
The Andrews government has also been plagued by scandal. Credit: Joe Armao
Guy’s political judgment is rightly being questioned by peers. But he has also been dragged down by a poor parliamentary team who have long assumed that simply by being something different from Labour, they would attract support.
It is a tactic that is based on the old political theory that governments lose elections instead of oppositions winning them. While still true, this theory also requires a good opposition to help them do it.
As one Liberal strategist said this week: “No one needs a review or a poll to tell you that voters want to get rid of Andrews, but we’re not a party that people want to vote for either.”
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Organizationally, Guy has also had to deal with rampant factionalism at administration level and a party that has failed to attract new members at the grassroots level, particularly in growth areas.
“You have all these organizational and branding mistakes that can’t be reversed in three months,” another liberal insider said this week.
Then there are the Coalition’s exhausted policy offerings. Pollsters believe the election can be won or lost on health and cost-of-living policies. But with 13 weeks until early voting centers open, the opposition has little to sell.
Frustrated by the scandals eating up airtime, health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier took the plunge and addressed the media on Wednesday just hours after news broke that the opposition had lost its health director. communications
Crozier made it clear he thought Victorians were not interested in staff turnover in Guy’s office, given the elective surgery waiting list had reached 87,000. So when questions turned to how the Liberals and Nationals were going to halve that list, as promised, reporters were told to bide their time.
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“There are so many things that can be done, but we will talk about it closer to the election,” he said.
Rising prices will also be a key concern for voters heading to the polls in November. Interstate governments offer vouchers for before and after school care, road toll discounts and payments for pensioners and people on low incomes.
If the Coalition is serious about moving on from its fortnight of scandals, the release of policies aimed at cost-of-living pressures would be a good place to start.
Working in the Coalition’s favor is the fact that support for Labor has shrunk since the last election, particularly in the party’s traditional heartlands. If coalition MPs get their act together and start publishing some attractive alternative policies, there is a chance the opposition could turn their electoral fortunes around.
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Guy knows that if he doesn’t lead his party into government, or seriously improve his party’s position, his days leading the Liberals will be over. It was a scenario he was warned about when he made the fateful decision to challenge O’Brien nearly a year ago.