The next election is supposed to be three years away, but we are seeing many predictions of the political demise of Justin Trudeau. But for his Liberal Party, there is no easy way to leave him behind.
Predicting Mr. Trudeau’s next three years seems like a cup game if one considers that the surprises of his first seven years in office included Donald Trump, the pandemic, and the war in Europe.
But he is a prime minister whose last two re-election candidates saw him run by minority governments without winning the popular vote, and who will have been in office for 10 years at the time of the next election.
Any other party, with any other leader, would already have plans, or plots, to replace him. For the Liberal Party of Canada, however, the big challenge would be to find a replacement leader who is not considered a pale imitation: a liberal Trudeau other than Justin Trudeau.
By profile, the obvious candidate is Chrystia Freeland, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, who is now presenting the budgets, managing the main political files, replacing the Prime Minister on key occasions and often by her side for big announcements.
But if the problem with Mr. Trudeau seeking re-election in 2025 is that Trudeau has been too much, and Canadians are tired of the way he has done things, it’s hard to imagine Mrs. Freeland being seen as the wind of change.
And for all the weight Mrs. Freeland has in Mr. Trudeau’s government: she led NAFTA talks with Mr. Freud’s administration. Trump helped build political peace with Ontario’s Prime Minister Doug Ford and is responsible for the pandemic’s fiscal recovery plan. a political actor like the prime minister. Few people are.
Mr. Trudeau is a master of the crazy art of conversation, while Mrs. Freeland gives long lectures. Even now, with his lowest approvals, no one doubts the ability of Mr. Trudeau to enchant a room or offer a line.
And this is an enigma for liberals: it is difficult to find a better salesman for Trudeau liberalism than Justin Trudeau. And it will be difficult to find a liberal leader who does not look like a Liberal Trudeau.
There are some contenders with their own political charm. The Minister of Innovation, François-Philippe Champagne, can work a room. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly also has some charisma. But they’ve both been on the team for seven years. Trudeau.
Defense Minister Anita Anand is younger and some see her as a potential candidate for leadership, but by 2025 she will presumably have been Cabinet Minister Trudeau for six years. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, did not join the government of Mr. Trudeau, however, is unclear if he can handle the world of electoral politics, which is very different from any other stage.
And at this stage, when potential leadership candidates are still limited to the quiet work of traveling to fundraising and regional liberal meetings and making rejection plans, many of these potential candidates seem to have similar ideas. on how to differentiate yourself from Mr. Trudeau. with more attention to the economy.
Ms. Freeland, as Minister of Finance, has a platform to do so, but it is closely tied to Mr. Freeland’s general government agenda. Trudeau.
Mr. Champagne, the Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, is positioning himself as the cabinet’s liberal business that will talk about industrial strategy, economic growth and jobs. Liberal dignitaries have suggested to Ms. Anand is looking for similar territory if he decides to run, although his current job as defense minister does not make it particularly easy. Mr. Carney, if he chose to run, would have a different challenge: he would enter the race with great financial credentials, but he would have to convince voters that he is in touch with ordinary Canadians.
It is a group of potential aspirants who would aim to rename the Liberals as a more economy-focused party after a long tenure with a more left-wing prime minister. This is a kind of Liberal Party tradition that replaced Pierre Trudeau with John Turner and Jean Chrétien with Paul Martin, with less than stellar election results.
With Justin Trudeau seven years in office but three years after an election, the dilemma for the Liberal Party is not whether Mr. Trudeau. Trudeau will reappear. It’s if it can be replaced by someone that voters think is different.
For subscribers: Get exclusive news and policy analysis by signing up at Policy conference.