This week’s Charles Schwab challenge has become a microcosm for 2022: Scottie Scheffler leads, and everyone else is chasing him. Scheffler will look for his fifth win of the year on Sunday at the Colonial Country Club after shooting a 2-under 68 on Saturday that gives him a two-time lead over Brendon Todd and Scott Stallings.
It didn’t look like that for much of the day. Scheffler started lukewarm with 8- and 6-foot putts in the first two holes, and shot a pair of 35s in front before rolling from behind. He birdie the first two on this side and closed with another on the last to secure a spot in the final pairing on Sunday afternoon.
While that’s not uncommon for Scheffler this season, it’s a different experience than he has traditionally had on this golf course. Colonial isn’t necessarily tailor-made for the reigning Masters champion – he hasn’t finished in the top 50 in two starts here – but his leadership is no coincidence. Scheffler leads the tee field on the green and while he’s doing well so far, he hasn’t been an all-time heater during the first three rounds. In other words, that advantage is sustainable on Sunday given the difference between Scheffler and a fairly average chase package, as well as the wonder that is hitting the golf ball.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s at stake on Sunday with Scheffler at Fort Worth as he tries to continue what has so far been an absolutely dream season.
The leader
1. Scottie Scheffler (-11): Scheffler was out of the conversation for two brief days in the Southern Hills a week ago when he lost the cut in the PGA Championship, but other than that, he owns the season. . His last two months have been almost comical. This was followed by a victory at the Phoenix Open with a T7 at the Genesis Invitational and another victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T55 in The Players before two more victories in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and, of course, in the Masters. His T15 at AT&T Byron Nelson felt like a total failure, which should tell you the level at which he’s been playing. Throw in another win on Sunday and a career warm-up suddenly becomes one of the great seasons of the last four decades.
Also, if he wins the first prize of $ 1.5 million, it will be the second richest season in PGA Tour history just behind Jordan Spieth’s 2014-15 season in which he won just over $ 12 million. It should also be noted that there are still three months to go before the end of the season.
Other contenders
T2. Scott Stallings, Brendon Todd (-9)
4. Harold Varner III (-8)
T5. John Huh, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed (-7)
As I said, the chase package is not elite. Any of these guys is capable of winning a PGA Tour event, of course, but none of them will put much fear on Scheffler. Todd actually fired Saturday’s round twice over the rest of the field, and did all his damage to the top nine on the field. In any case, this showed that there is a number for players to throw, but the chances of one of the golfers at the top of the board doing so while catching Scheffler are not high. Data Golf offers Scheffler a 55% chance of winning this tournament.
Myth … again
Mito Pereira was the tragic figure last week. He doubled the last hole of the PGA Championship when a pair would have won it and a bogey would have put it in a playoff. Pereira handled it all very well afterwards, however, which won him many fans in the future, and now they have a chance to shoot for her husband on Sunday. Pereira is five behind Scheffler, but only three behind second, as he will try to do with this classification what Justin Thomas did to him a week ago: go far back and get a victory.
Updated proposals and probabilities
Here’s a look at the new odds after 54 holes, via Caesars Sportsbook.
- Scottie Scheffler: -140
- Brendon Todd: 7-1
- Scott Stallings: 9-1
- Harold Varner III: 10-1
- Patrick Reed: 22-1
- Chris Kirk: 22-1
- Cam Davis: 35-1
It’s hard to know what to do with this one. Scheffler’s number isn’t great, but I’m pretty sure he’ll win the tournament and I really don’t trust the guys behind him unless he doubles the number. I figured I’d grab a steering wheel over Reed or Kirk with 22-1 or Cam Davis with 35-1 and see if he plays like he did last Sunday (he won’t, but that’s probably the play here).