China’s hysterical reaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is intended to demonstrate the dire consequences that await the island if it persists in defying the will of Beijing’s communist rulers. The four days of unprecedented military exercises that China has launched, amounting to a sea and air blockade, are designed to show the dire fate that Taiwan should face if it maintains its defiant attitude.
Indeed, at a time when the world is still struggling to come to terms with Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the prospect of China launching a similar operation to capture Taiwan threatens to have an even more catastrophic impact on order established worldwide.
Imagine the devastation that would be inflicted on the global economy if the world’s leading democracies were forced to impose punitive economic sanctions against Beijing in response to a Chinese invasion. Britain alone would lose nearly £100 billion in trade overnight.
Fortunately, despite Beijing’s grotesque saber rattling in the Taiwan Strait, there is virtually no chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in the near future for the simple reason that, as far as its military prowess, China is nothing more than a paper dragon. Even if, as many analysts predict, China becomes the world’s largest economy by the 2030s, it still has a long way to go in terms of matching the military might of the US and its allies.
For starters, invading an island nation like Taiwan is a very different proposition than Russia’s assault on Ukraine, which has mostly consisted of sending columns of tanks and troops across its neighbor’s land border, backed by of artillery, missiles and fighter planes.
The Ukrainian military, moreover, has enjoyed only a modest ability to defend itself against Russian aggression, as evidenced by Kyiv’s constant calls for NATO countries to provide more sophisticated weaponry and supplies.
By contrast, Taiwan possesses its own well-trained air force, batteries of state-of-the-art US Patriot air defense systems that are more than a match for China’s next-generation J-20 fighter jets, plus to have great motivation. army
Taiwan is not Ukraine, and the Chinese military is a long way from being able to mount the kind of large-scale and complex amphibious landing operation that would be necessary to take control of the island.
Because despite the vast sums the Chinese Communist Party has spent on developing its forces, the country is still playing catch-up to acquire the strength to challenge the military supremacy of the United States.
The development of China’s two new aircraft carriers is an example. While naval powers such as the US and Britain have been building this highly specialized military capability for the better part of a century, China only acquired its first carrier in 2012 and is still on a learning curve pronounced when making optimal use of it. .
Another important consideration is that the Chinese military has not been directly involved in a major war since the Korean conflict in the early 1950s, so it lacks the real-time combat experience gained by the US and its allies. in combat theaters ranging from Afghanistan. in the Falklands.
So even if the Chinese continue to make bellicose gestures in response to Ms. Pelosi’s arrival in Taipei this week, their ability to launch a direct assault on Taiwan is limited, as the Taiwanese themselves would be the first to recognize
From Taiwan’s perspective, the most likely threat to its survival is likely to come in the form of political instability similar to the domestic unrest that hastened the demise of democratic rule in Hong Kong. For this reason, many Taiwanese are more concerned about China’s ongoing efforts to subvert their democracy through support for pro-Beijing political activists and cyberattacks than the possibility of a full-scale Chinese invasion.
The limitations of China’s military power are certainly a consideration that Western policymakers should bear in mind as they consider how best to deal with the more confrontational attitude that Beijing has adopted under President Xi’s leadership Jinping.
With the Chinese economy facing the very real prospect of stagnation and major cities regularly subject to Covid-inspired lockdowns, Mr Xi has more than enough to manage without sparking a global crisis in Taiwan. An alternative view is that Xi is deliberately seeking to divert attention from his country’s economic problems ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November.
Either way, Beijing is acting from a position of weakness, not strength, in its threatening behavior toward Taiwan, which is why US President Joe Biden was wrong to question the wisdom of the visit Mrs. Pelosi earlier this week. Any suggestion the West is not fully committed to Taiwan independence will simply encourage Beijing to engage in more acts of intimidation.