Could Boris Johnson lose his seat in the next general election? It is an issue that would have been laughable for any other Prime Minister, but the defeat in his constituency in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is not unthinkable.
London’s local elections earlier this month saw a substantial shift towards Labor. A YouGov poll this weekend suggested Johnson would lose his seat if elections were held tomorrow. The election calculation, which analyzes data from national polls, is also tentatively favoring a Labor victory in the West London constituency.
“He stays in the lead, which I like endlessly because he’s such an unpopular guy now,” said David Williams, president of Hillingdon Labor. “At the local level, he is not a political asset, he did not run in the local elections. So I want to see him go and I want him to stay at the same time: it’s a very strange feeling. “
It would take a strong 15% swing for Johnson to lose. But Williams said changes in constituency boundaries would add Northolt to the seat, a city he described as “a strong work area.” Meanwhile, young travelers are moving from inland London to the outer districts and Hillingdon is no exception, especially with a new station on the Elizabeth line in Johnson’s constituency.
Perhaps the biggest local problem is the future of Heathrow’s third runway. The Conservative-controlled Hillingdon council is also struggling with a £ 38 million deficit, despite a £ 25 million government bailout in March. One of the solutions is the construction of more housing, which attracts more municipal taxpayers and the payments of article 106 of the developers, for new facilities.
But the electoral cost of development is felt in places like Yiewsley, a battlefield south of the constituency. Labor took the two Conservative council seats in May, fueled by local opposition to council plans to replace the library with a six-storey block of flats and a new library, with part of them in the car park. car park for Yiewsley Park. The neighborhood pool was demolished 14 years ago and the ground is still empty despite promises of a new leisure center. With threats from the judicial review and protest campaign groups, it looks likely the problem will be extended next year and beyond, making it a hot local issue for Johnson.
Debbi King of the Yiewsley.org campaign group said: “It will have a big impact; so far it has been forced.” So far, Johnson’s response has been neutral, but protesting against the plans would be a showdown with Conservative councilors who are already blaming Downing Street for their financial difficulties.
Boris Johnson plays petanque with nursing home residents in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituencies he has held since 2015. Photo: Leon Neal / Getty Images
The problem arises on Yiewsley Main Street. Outside a Wenzel Bakers branch, Paula Grimes, a charity worker, feels betrayed by the council’s approach to the pool and Yiewsley Park, even though she voted for Johnson last time. will do it again. “There are many things bigger than the confinement holidays,” he said, referring to Ukraine and rising food prices. “I don’t think people can cope with a big change.”
His partner, Daniel McGuinness, vehemently disagrees. He is annoyed by Johnson’s decision to shut down during the pandemic. “I have absolutely no time for man,” he said. “He looks like a jester. I fought during confinement.”
Johnson will be happier with the divisions between the Labor headquarters and Hillingdon’s left-wing activists. Williams said the party was hampered in local elections because they were not allowed to select candidates until shortly before the deadline for nominations. “The national party prevents us from selecting [parliamentary] candidate, “he said. There is no shortage of strong competitors, however.” Everyone wants to be the knight who kills the dragon. “
Senior Labor figures say Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be among the 125 seats won by Labor if they want to get a majority in the next election. In fact, according to the Electoral Calculation, it would fall to Labor even if the party was in 25 seats to get a total majority.
However, prime ministers have a much larger personal vote than most MPs. Margaret Thatcher comfortably held Finchley even though she was not a theoretically safe seat, according to Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter. Johnson’s seat “looks competitive,” he said. “What will probably not happen is that Johnson would lose his seat, but the Conservatives remain in power. The Prime Minister cannot lose his own seat without the Conservatives losing their parliamentary majority.”
A senior Conservative familiar with the area said “it is possible” a major upheaval and Johnson could lose, and suggested that the Liberal Conservatives who supported David Cameron and Theresa May were not deeply impressed with the Prime Minister. However, he said non-traditional Conservative voters still liked Johnson.
“It’s fair to say that anyone can have problems at any time,” he said. “Anything is possible. But the local council is conservative and popular. There are good activists there and Johnson got more than 50% of the vote last time. I think the economy will be the thing, and how people feel personally. It is also possible that he will not stop again, if he leaves “.
But there are other options for Johnson. He could do the “Chicken Run” and stay in a different seat, although doing so could be seen as a defeat, a bad image for a prime minister. Assuming, of course, that when the next election arrives, he is still at number 10.