A subvariant of COVID Omicron known as BA.5, which has been dubbed “the worst version of the virus we’ve seen,” continues to spread across the United States, but it’s still unclear how bad it is.
Since Omicron was first discovered in late 2021, it has stubbornly refused to leave. Highly transmissible, even compared to previous versions of COVID, caused a record winter peak earlier this year, and is believed to have become even more transmissible since then.
Omicron has mutated several times, first from BA.1 and BA.2 to BA.5, the version that is now spreading across the country along with the similar subtype BA.4. Projections from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that during the week ending July 9, BA.5 accounted for 65 percent of COVID infections according to samples collected, with BA.4 which accounted for 16.3 per cent.
If accurate, this estimate would mark an increase from 53.8 percent the previous week and 39 percent from the previous week.
An archive photo shows a test site of COVID and pedestrians with masks in New York on June 6, 2022. Some scientists think the COVID BA.5 subtype may be more transmissible than the previous types. John Smith / Getty / VIEWpress
“The Omicron BA.5 subvariant is the worst version of the virus we’ve seen,” wrote Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and professor of molecular medicine there, on his blog in late June. “It takes the immune escape, already broad, to the next level and, based on that, improved transmissibility, far beyond Omicron (BA.1) and other variants of the Omicron family we’ve seen.” .
According to Topol, genetic sequencing of BA.5 has been shown to mutate significantly since early versions of Omicron, making it difficult for our bodies to recognize its ear protein and provide immunity.
Topol is not the only one who has warned about BA.5. At a press conference on July 12, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said that “people with a previous infection, even with BA.1 and BA.2, are probably still at risk of suffering BA.4 or BA.5 “.
BA.5 is believed to take transmissibility and immune evasion to another level. Two key questions are now what this means for vaccines and whether BA.5 causes more serious disease in people who get it.
At its most recent technical briefing on COVID variants published on June 24, the UK Health Safety Agency (HSA) addressed the vaccine issue, noting that there was not enough data at the time to know with certainty how BA vaccines work.5. However, he stated that preliminary analyzes have indicated that “the protection afforded by vaccines is likely to remain comparable to that observed above.”
Walensky echoed the point at Tuesday’s press conference, stating that while data on the effectiveness of the vaccine against BA.4 and BA.5 were still being collected, “we know that the effectiveness of the vaccine against serious illness and death remains high for other Omicron sublinings and probably also for BA.4 and 5. “
It is currently unknown whether BA.5 causes more severe disease than other Omicron subtypes.
In his blog, Topol noted that there had been a study showing that BA.4 and BA.5 induced worse diseases than BA.2 in hamsters, but animal studies are not necessarily accurate in predicting what will happen in humans. In its June 24 report, the UK HSA noted that the risk of hospitalization had been rising since April this year, but said the effect was small and that the reason was not it is clear.
Professor Francois Balloux, director of the Institute of Genetics at the University of London (UCL) (UGI) in the UK, had a firmer vision. On Wednesday, he tweeted: “We have massive data on hospitalization / death rates BA.5, preprints with large sample sizes coming out left, right and center, all showing no increase in virulence. [severity] on BA.1 / BA.2. “
We have massive data on hospitalization / death rates of BA.5, prepress with large sample sizes coming out left, right and center, which show no increase in virulence compared to BA.1 / BA.2. However, half of the scientific community and most of the media got caught up in a few 🐹🐹🐹 who lost weight …
– Prof Francois Balloux (@BallouxFrancois) July 13, 2022
Balloux also said CDC data on the proportion of U.S. cases of BA.5 “does not pick up on the complexity of the current situation.”
Finally, there are case data. CDC figures show that the seven-day moving average of new COVID cases in the U.S. has been roughly between 100,000 and 110,000 for a few weeks, although it jumped to 123,365 on July 12th.
The online statistics tool OurWorldInData, which uses COVID data from Johns Hopkins University, shows that several countries, including France, Italy, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, have experienced recent increases in cases in terms of daily positive cases per million people, although the variant behind the cases was not specified.
In a mid-July 12 statement, the White House said BA.5 “has the potential to increase the number of infections in the coming weeks” and that “vaccines remain our most important tool.” to protect people. The Biden administration also said it would continue to provide antivirals like Paxlovid to health services.