With the “best summer in history” already underway: Glastonbury’s back, Wimbledon’s back, the masks are out! – It feels anathema to most of us to even recognize the fragile terrain we might find ourselves in when it comes to the pandemic. In fact, due to two “immune escape” variants of Omicron, declining population protection against the virus and our super sociable summer so far, the UK is in the midst of a huge increase in ‘infections.
The cases are the highest they have had since April, with a total of 2.3 million people estimated to have had the virus last week, 32% more than the previous week. While not as high as the 4.9 million seen at the peak of the Omicron BA.2 wave in late March, it does mean that an estimated 3.35 percent of the population has Covid. This figure was 0.1% in the summer of 2020.
This wave, however, is very different from the previous ones. The success of the vaccine program meant the end of the restrictions, so for the first time we are really living with Covid. But as cases continue to rise and pressure on the NHS increases, experts are questioning whether we will reach a crisis point, and some tentatively suggest that if the situation worsens, isolation requirements may need to be reconsidered.
Two variants of Omicron, BA.4 and BA.5 are behind the current increase in cases in the UK. They are highly transmissible and can evade immunity from previous infection or the vaccine, which means that even if you had the first strain of Omicron, you could still catch it. “It’s easy for these strains to break through the wall of immunity,” explains Simon Clarke, an associate professor of cell microbiology at the University of Reading. “This adds to the fact that immunity is declining all the time. It’s like constantly trying to fill a dripping tub. With the advent of new variants, this will keep happening.”
The “best summer in history” is in full swing
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Fortunately, there is currently no evidence to suggest that variants cause more serious illnesses (the most common symptom of new variants is a headache), says the UK Health Safety Agency, but hospitalizations are on the rise. Professor Denis Kinane, founding scientist at Cignpost Diagnostics and a leading immunologist, is concerned. “It’s clear the virus isn’t about to go away,” he says. “There are extremely worrying trends in the increase in the number of infections, especially compared to the levels of a year ago, and are already causing a gradual increase in hospitalizations. The concern now is that as these new strains spread, pressure on the NHS will intensify, with an increasing number of patients requiring medical attention and an increase in staff absences due to infections. “
He believes our summer of freedom with “super spread” events like Glastonbury, Jubilee celebrations and Wimbledon have been crucial to the quick transmission of the variants.
Also, the end of free trials means that many people who have it don’t go through here. Anecdotally, Professor Clarke has heard of incidents of employers telling staff to ignore positive evidence and start working anyway. “We need to be aware that this could get out of control faster than we would like,” he says.
“Maybe we’ll have to control it a bit. It’s not reasonable for people to want to live their lives normally and I don’t suggest another block for a moment, but wearing a mask could be a reasonable measure.”
In fact, several NHS trusts have already returned them after abandoning them in June. Dr Lara Alloway, medical director of Hampshire Hospitals NHS Trust, said: “We have made the difficult decision to require all staff, visitors and patients to wear surgical masks. In addition, we strongly recommend social distance of at least one meter. “These measures have been introduced due to a significant increase in the number of Covid-positive patients in our hospitals, very high rates in the community, and rising staff disease levels.”
“People are hospitalized with Covid, not because of that, but it’s still causing a problem,” says Professor Clarke. “It’s like throwing a stone into a pond, it causes ripples.”
Broadcasting events such as Glastonbury have led to an increase in cases
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Ripples are a major cause for concern for the already stretched NHS. “Trusted leaders are concerned about the level of pressure we are seeing at this time of year,” says Miriam Deakin, NHS Providers ’director of policy and strategy. “It’s been relentless. Historically you could expect a respite during the summer months, but there’s been sustained pressure.”
With the increase in Covid cases affecting the NHS’s ability to cope with delays in care and the exacerbation of staff shortages, there is a growing concern about how autumn and winter can be, especially if flu outbreaks occur earlier in the year.
“Overall, the coming months look very difficult for the NHS,” says Ms Deakin. “As Dr Jenny Harries (CEO, UK Health Safety Agency) recently said, it makes sense for the public to take appropriate precautions, such as wearing masks indoors. We all want to live with Covid, but the fact is that it remains a dangerous disease if you are vulnerable or have underlying health conditions. “
With the end of free trials, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly how many people actually have Covid.
Professor Kinane believes this is a government mistake. “We need to understand that the UK’s globally praised testing regime allowed us a high degree of visibility into the behavior of the virus and often allowed us to deploy tactics that effectively contained the spread of newer variants, especially the launch “The end of universal free trials and the resulting decline in data release have greatly diminished our ability to identify, analyze, and control the spread of future variants.”
While it is difficult to accurately measure Covid’s reach in the community, the hospitality industry feels it. The restaurateur, James Chiavarini, who runs the popular Italian Il Portico on Kensington High Street, said the last few weeks had been very quiet.
“There’s been a noticeable drop in customers and traffic,” he says. “Things are more complicated than ever. Especially now the work from home is so ingrained.”
In France, where virus-related hospitalizations are rising rapidly, the government is “inviting” people to re-use face masks. Dr Quinton Fivelman, scientific director of the London Medical Laboratory, believes this should happen here.
“There has to be a government impetus to encourage people to wear masks to transport and crowded places. I don’t see a blockage going on. People wouldn’t take it seriously and it would be so unpopular, but masks are one thing. What can we do.
Several NHS trusts have reintroduced the masks
/ Alamy Live News.
“It would also be good for the government to do free trials and self-reports again. The number of people I know who returned from Glasto with Covid, but I doubt it has been a recorded case.”
The hope of herd immunity has not been realized because the virus continues to adapt, as does the flu, he explains. “The best we can do is try to be prudent and keep our immune system healthy habits.”
But Professor Kinane warns: “While vaccines have provided us with substantial protection against the virus, if cases continue to rise and the infection rate grows rapidly, changes in restrictions, including mandatory use of masquerades, guidance to work from home and perhaps changes to the The insulation requirements could be options that could be considered. “
In the fall, Covid reinforcements will be offered, but only to those over 65. Some experts, including Professor Kinane, think more should be deployed. “As immunity decreases, it is vital that if an additional dose of vaccination is offered, absorption is rapid and widespread for maximum protection.” Meanwhile, experts are watching nervously as the situation unfolds.