According to one of the UK’s leading statisticians, hospitalizations for the recent rise in Covid infections may be “surpassing” based on the latest figures.
The total number of people hospitalized in England who have tested positive for Covid-19 stood at 11,878 in the seven days to Wednesday, an increase of 33% over the previous week.
Dr David Spiegelhalter said the cases were still increasing more widely and that there was a “huge insufficient count” as the tests were not being carried out to the degree they had been.
More than 2 million people had the virus according to the Covid-19 infection survey, the largest regular survey of coronavirus infections and antibodies, which Spiegelhalter described as one of the most reliable data sources, despite which he stressed was a couple of weeks ago. .
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today program: “It’s high. It’s not as high as it had been, this year it went up to 8%, but I think we need to look at hospitalizations.”
“They’ve been going up a lot and they’re almost at the level of previous peaks this year. I think there are some signs that they may be overcoming them.”
About a quarter of those hospitalized were found to have been taken to hospital, he said, but added that they all needed extra care and this was fueling staffing problems in the NHS.
“Fortunately, there is no increase in ventilation. This does not mean that there are no serious cases,” he added.
The latest figures are seen as evidence of how the virus is becoming more common, with the potential to add more pressure on hospital staff already trying to erase a record of operations back.
The current wave is being driven by Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, which are now the dominant strains in the UK and are more transmissible than variant BA.2 which caused infection levels to reach a historical maximum previously. the year.
According to the UK Health Safety Agency (UKHSA), the hospital admission rate in England for people who tested positive for Covid-19 stood at 14.6 per 100,000 last week, compared to the 11.1 of the previous week.
Admissions to intensive care units (ICUs) stood at 0.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 0.3. The two figures are the highest since mid-April.
Health experts have warned that the numbers are likely to continue to rise throughout July, driven by a “substantial amount” of declining immunity among the elderly.
Dr. Spiegelhalter said one trend was an increase in non-Covid excess deaths in hospitals, rather than in homes, and it was unclear why this was happening.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) showed that there were 1,540 excess deaths in the week ending June 24, although only 10% was due to Covid-19.
“Some people say that perhaps this is the beginning of the impact of measures against the pandemic and the disruption of health care and health use by people,” Dr. Spiegelhalter said.