The minerals needed to drive the green transition from fossil fuels could become the “21st century version of the” oil weapon, “warns an internal study commissioned by the Canadian Department of National Defense.
There is widespread agreement among scientists that drastic cuts in fossil fuel consumption are needed to prevent catastrophic climate change, and a transition to electric cars, wind and solar power are the key pillars of that change.
But as countries rush to adopt more electricity technologies, investors and governments are struggling to control access to commodities such as copper, lithium and rare earths in remote regions. This has led many observers to fear that the green transition could have echoes of the tension and violence that characterize global oil exploration.
“The explosive growth of electronic devices in the last decade, along with rapid advances in green technologies such as wind power and electric vehicles, are driving the increase in demand for REE. [rare earth elements]”, said the study prepared for the DND in 2020 and which was accessed under the legislation on freedom of information.
“REEs are also crucial to national security as they are key ingredients in the production of a variety of defense-related components and applications,” the study said. “Any disruption to the availability of rare earths could have serious economic and national security impacts around the world.”
The rare earth elements are a group of 17 commodities with names like neodymium, cerium, and yttrium. These are key components for advanced technologies such as hybrid vehicles, laser guidance systems and flat panel monitors.
Analysts said the general trend of competition for control also applies to other minerals needed for the energy transition, such as copper and lithium.
The newspaper said China “has already shown its readiness to use its rare earths as a political weapon,” citing Beijing’s 2010 decision to halt REE shipments to Japan after the latter’s arrest. ‘a Chinese fishing crew during a maritime border dispute.
China controls about 90 percent of the world’s supply of rare earth elements, the study said. used by Arab countries during the 1973 OPEC embargo, when oil exports came to a halt in the US in retaliation for Washington’s support for Israel.
Nearly 100 pages of the DND’s internal files were retained, underscoring the sensitivity of information about access to these resources.
The Department of National Defense rejected an interview request. In comments sent by e-mail, a spokesman said the study, conducted for DND by the National Research Council of Canada, did not lead to any direct action by the military. However, he “reported broader departmental discussions that are ongoing.”
The DND is in talks with the United States on the countries’ “shared defense industrial base,” the spokesman said.
‘Voltage multiplier’
To fuel the green transition, environmentalists fear that the demand for new mines, often in remote and ecologically sensitive areas, will lead to pollution and violence among communities and investors.
These local conflicts could escalate in tandem with geopolitical struggles between countries and corporations as power agents strive to control increasingly valuable resources everywhere, from the rainforests of South America to the United States. Far North of Canada and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The global transition to clean energy will require much more copper, which is abundant in this mine in Herriman, Utah. An internal study by the Canadian Department of National Defense found that geopolitical competition for key minerals needed for a low-emission future is already underway. (Rick Bowmer / The Associated Press)
“We are already seeing more conflict at the local level,” said Donald Kingsbury, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto who studies mining in Latin America, about the renewable energy boom.
For example, he said tensions are rising over the so-called lithium triangle, which spans the borders of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina, citing protests and conflicts between national and local governments over who should control resource revenues and decisions. about new projects.
“It’s a stress multiplier,” Kingsbury said of the new demand for minerals linked to the energy transition. “We see that it is setting the stage for future conflicts in the future.”
Demand for copper is expected to double by 2050, predicted the CEO of commodities trading giant Glencore last year, meaning the world will have to extract 60 million tonnes a year.
The production of an electric car requires more than twice as much copper as a gas vehicle, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris. A clean energy vehicle also needs minerals that are not used in traditional cars, such as cobalt, lithium, and graphite.
Demand for lithium is expected to increase more than 40 times by 2040, according to the IEA, and demand for graphite, cobalt and nickel will increase more than 20 times.
Reaching zero net emissions “requires truly monumental global change, a global copper-intensive system for renewable energy,” said Daniel Earle, CEO of Solaris Resources, a Canadian mining company. “You’re basically talking about an effort to electrify everything you can.”
A struggle for the untapped resources of Ecuador
Earle hopes to capitalize on this new demand in an impoverished corner of southeastern Ecuador.
Solaris wants to build an open-pit copper mine on a 286-square-kilometer concession, extracting more than a billion tons of material near the border with Peru. If the Warintza project receives its environmental permits and meets other requirements, copper mining at the site could begin as early as 2026, Earle said.
It is in places like this, a biodiverse region and a focus of illegal mining accessible almost exclusively by helicopter, where the struggle for resources linked to the energy transition is heating up.
Members of Ecuadorian indigenous communities are protesting in the capital, Quito, in 2020 to oppose new mining and oil exploration in their traditional territories in the Amazon rainforest. (Dolores Ochoa / The Associated Press)
Earle said the largest copper projects already in operation, including Chile’s Escondida giant mine, the world’s largest, do not have the capacity to meet new demand. He expects smaller operations in more remote regions, such as the Solaris plan, to proliferate globally.
Highly dependent on oil revenues and reluctant to approve new mines, the Ecuadorian government is in the process of allowing more mineral extraction, said Nathan Monash, president of the country’s Chamber of Mines.
“Ecuador is almost at a perfect time to launch mineral resources when the transition takes place,” Monash said. The sector could be responsible for 500,000 direct and indirect jobs in Ecuador by the end of the decade if planned projects go ahead, Monash said.
He acknowledged that the increase in mining activity could replicate some of the “geopolitical issues” that have affected the oil sector. But he insisted that Ecuadorian companies have a “commitment to local communities” after “learning a lot from the extractive policies of the past.”
“All neighbors may have disagreements, but it basically boils down to trust,” Monash said. “Has it created trust between local agents and mining companies?”
A waorani guard is facing police in front of Ecuador’s Constitutional Court in 2020 during a demonstration against mining and oil extraction in traditional indigenous territories. Canadian mining company Solaris Resources says Shuar Indigenous communities living near its proposed copper mine have endorsed the project. An Ecuadorian indigenous national organization opposes it. (Dolores Ochoa / The Associated Press)
Federico Velásquez, Solaris vice president of operations, stressed that Shuar indigenous communities living around the proposed mine support the project, due to promises of jobs and infrastructure in one of the poorest regions of the world. ‘Ecuador.
Other indigenous groups in Ecuador, including the Shuar Arutam People’s Governing Council, which represents dozens of communities in the region, have called on the government to suspend the project.
“These activities [by Solaris] violate our legitimate decision to say ‘No to mining’ in our territory, a decision protected by our right to self-determination and other collective rights, “said Josefina Tunki, president of the group, in a statement last year. past.
Local environmentalists are also concerned about new mines, fearing water pollution, deforestation and long-term damage to remote ecosystems, said Nathalia Bonilla, president of the Quito-based conservation group Accion Ecologica.
Fear of embargo
The mining industry argues that these projects are necessary to combat climate change, create jobs and move Ecuador beyond its dependence on oil extraction. If a company like Solaris doesn’t build the copper project, they say, someone else could.
“China is the dominant player in natural resources in Ecuador,” said Earle, CEO of Solaris. Chinese companies take “100 percent” of the copper concentrates from the Mirador mine near the Warintza project, he said, and virtually all of Ecuador’s oil production.
“Chinese mining companies have made the leap to Western mining companies.”
The Chinese embassy in Ecuador did not respond to requests for an interview.
In addition to its growing presence in South America, China continues to control the rare earth market “and is the leader in rare earth research and development,” the DND study said. analysts believe Beijing could block sales of rare earths. goods during periods of conflict.
There was a situation comparable to the oil market of the 1970s. During the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Middle East nations of the Petroleum Exporting Organization …