Doug Ford and his progressive Conservatives are about to form a government for a second term, with another likely majority on the cards, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News, found from respondents that Ford would get 41 percent of the votes cast, three points more than halfway through the campaign.
The poll indicated that a majority government for the PCs was likely due to the voting split between Liberal and NPD.
With that, the poll also found that when it comes to who will become the official opposition, the race is extremely tight between the NPD and the Liberals.
Read more: 45% of Voters Believe Computers Will Win Doug Ford in Ontario Election: Ipsos Poll
The NPD under Andrea Horwath and the Liberals led by Steven Del Duca are statistically tied with 25 percent and 24 percent of the vote, respectively. That’s 2 percent for Horwath and 4 percent for Del Duca.
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Ontario Green Party Mike Schreiner would get six percent of the vote, which doesn’t change.
Other games like New Blue would get four percent. One in 11 (or nine percent) is undecided, while four percent of respondents say they will not vote or one percent refused to answer.
The poll said six out of 10 respondents who expressed support for a party said they were absolutely certain of their choice, and four out of 10 were not so sure. Those who supported the PC Party were 66 percent more confident in their election compared to the Liberals with 60 percent, the NDP with 55 percent and the Greens with 43 percent. The other half (49%) were less confident.
“This means that there is still time for the movement of votes, especially among progressive parties,” according to the Ipsos poll. “It also suggests a degree of apathy that could lead to less participation among supporters of these parties.”
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Read more: 40% of Ontario voters believe Doug Ford is best suited for Ipsos poll
In terms of election success, the poll noted that in key areas such as the Greater Toronto Area and southwestern Ontario, PCs have a strong lead, especially at 905 with a 20-point lead. .
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In Toronto, PCs are competitive and also lead in all other regions of the province, according to the survey.
Among men, the PCs dominate the vote with 49 percent, a substantial advantage over the NPD with 21 percent, the Liberals with 19 percent, the Greens with seven percent, according to the poll.
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However, among women, none of the parties stands out with a three-way statistical tie, according to the poll.
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If broken down by age group, the PCs are the ones who lead the most with the 55-year-olds with 48 percent, well ahead of the Liberals with 26 percent, the NDP with 17 percent and the Greens with a six percent.
In the 35-54 age group, PCs also have a big lead with 38 percent support, followed by the NPD with 26 percent, the Liberals with 24 percent and the Greens with eight percent .
Meanwhile, in the 18-34 age group, the poll noted that the NDP leadership was 38 percent, with PCs behind 33 percent. The Liberals sit at 22 percent and the Greens at six percent.
However, only 48 percent of those between 18 and 34 said they were absolutely certain they would vote.
In an interview with Global News, Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said Ford and the PCs “have found themselves at a particularly advantageous time in terms of public opinion.”
“People are going through a lot of changes: they’re just coming out of a pandemic,” he said. “Obviously, inflation is an incredibly fast-paced problem, and I think they’re looking for some stability in their lives.”
He said the public believes the Ford administration “did nothing wrong” when it comes to managing the pandemic.
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“They are prepared to allow the government to try to manage us through the situation we will face,” Bricker said. “So they’re not fickle, they’re not focused on change right now, and in particular they don’t see any opposition option that’s really convincing to them.”
Meanwhile, Bricker said that “right now” there is a “pretty bloody race for second place.”
“Progressive voters don’t seem to be able to unite behind a single option,” he said. “If they could, then the Ford administration would be in trouble.”
Bricker said right now that neither Horwath nor Del Duca have been able to “win what might be called the progressive primaries here and be the stand for progressive voters in this election.”
“And as long as they remain divided, (it will be) very difficult to defeat conservative progressives,” he said.
Ontario’s election is scheduled for Thursday.
-with files from Hannah Jackson of Global News
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos survey was conducted between May 29 and 31, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n = 2,501 eligible voters in Ontario over the age of 18 was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 online was interviewed and a sample of n = 1,000 Canadians over the age of 18 was interviewed by live telephone interviewers by landline and mobile phone, using random digit dialing. The accuracy of Ipsos surveys that include non-probabilistic sampling is measured by a credibility interval. In this case, the survey has an accuracy of ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times 20, if all Ontarians had been surveyed.
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