Retail sales rose 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said, beating the Reuters poll forecast by 0.8%.
Retail sales rose 8.4% year-on-year and are 18% above their pre-pandemic trend.
While retail sales data was applauded, economists were cautious in pointing out that one of the main reasons for the gain was rising gasoline prices.
“Yes, consumers spend more, but they don’t take home the same amount of goods,” First Trust said in a note. “Adjusted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail sales fell 0.3% in June.”
Separately, consumers moderated their inflation expectations in July, a fourth University of Michigan report showed.
U.S. 10-year bond yield fell 4 basis points to 2.92 percent at 16.59 in New York. The two-year high was 3.12 percent.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said the outlook is as cloudy as ever. “The US economy is about to stop, and a big shock would be enough to push it into recession. This shock could come from an energy crisis in Europe in the heating season winter, which could raise natural gas prices in the United States, or overflows from the weakness of China’s economy.
“In the face of these headwinds, the risk of recession is roughly a coin toss from now until the end of 2023.
Market highlights
ASX futures rose 57 points or 0.88 percent to 6559
- AUD + 0.6% to 67.93 US cents
- Bitcoin + 1.3% to $ 20,927.10 near 6.40am AEST
- A Wall St: Dow + 2.2% S&P 500 + 1.9% Nasdaq + 1.8%
- New York: BHP + 2.1% Rio + 1.3% Atlassian + 2.1%
- Tesla + 0.7% Apple + 1.1% Amazon + 2.6% Netflix + 8.2%
- In Europe: Stoxx 50 + 2.4% FTSE + 1.7% CAC + 2% DAX + 2.8%
- Cash Gold -0.1% Up to $ 1,708.17 Uses at 5:00 PM New York Time
- Brent crude + 1.9% to $ 101.02 a barrel
- Iron ore -3.6% to $ 96.60 a tonne
- 10 year yield: USA 2.92% Australia 3.40% Germany 1.12%
- US prices at 16.59 in New York
United States
A preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey released Friday showed that consumers see inflation stand at 2.8% over a five-year horizon, the lowest in a year and below 3, 1% in June.
Its one-year outlook for price increases moderated to 5.2% from 5.3% the previous month and was the lowest since February.
The high reading of consumer inflation expectations from the June preliminary survey was a factor in the decision by Fed officials to raise interest rates last month by three-quarters of a percentage point instead of only half a point.
A separate Fed report showed that factory production fell 0.5 percent last month, as did the May drop. This reflected the fall in the production of long-lived manufactured goods and non-durable consumer goods, and helped reduce overall industrial production by 0.2%.
BlackRock said the belt is tightening and postponing some hiring amid an economic environment that has scared retail investors and brought down their quarterly profits.
The world’s largest asset manager said total spending is likely to end in 2022 with growth of 15 per cent, the bottom line of a previously announced guidance. It is delaying senior hiring next year and bringing in more junior employees to certain roles, noting that it is trying to “juniorize” a number of roles where appropriate.
Europe
Automakers and retail stocks on Friday led a rebound in European stocks after a two-day defeat. The STOXX 600 index across the continent ended 1.8% higher.
Italian equities rose 1.8 percent, recovering the two-and-a-half-year lows reached in the previous session, while investors expected further developments in a political crisis that was brewing in the country.
Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Thursday rejected the resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi and asked him to address Parliament next week.
Stuart Cole, chief macroeconomist at Equiti Capital: “Markets are so volatile right now that I wouldn’t suggest it’s a shift in sentiment towards something more positive.”
The STOXX 600 fell 0.8 percent a week under the backdrop of fears of an energy supply crisis due to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
The critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline in Germany from Russia is scheduled to reopen on July 21 after closing for maintenance this week.
The European Central Bank is also expected to raise rates by 25 basis points next week, although analysts have begun trading with a small chance of a 50 basis point increase as the outlook for the European Union worsens. the euro against the US dollar.
Among the stock-based news, Volkswagen gained 3.5 percent after its China unit clung to the goal of doubling sales of its electric vehicle ID series this year despite power outages. the COVID-19.
Goods
The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange had gained 0.2% to $ 7,186.50 a tonne at 16.00 GMT.
It had previously fallen as much as 3 percent to $ 6,955 a tonne, falling below $ 7,000 for the first time since November 2020.
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Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures fell below $ 100 on Friday due to rising fears of declining steel demand as China’s economy fell in the second quarter.
The most traded iron ore in September on China’s Dalian commodity exchange fell 10% to 645 yuan ($ 95.32) a tonne at the end of day trading, after reaching 641 earlier, 50 yuan, its lowest level since Dec. 15.
This week it has fallen 13.3%, the strongest drop since mid-February.
On the Singapore stock exchange, the August August contract for the steelmaking ingredient fell 4% to a low of $ 96.25 a tonne, the weakest since November, and set it in motion for a weekly loss of more than 11%.