Political scientist James Walter says that “the current situation of the Liberals is as serious as it was in the early 1940s.” Robert Menzies’ first term as Prime Minister of the United Australia Party (UAP) ended in 1941 when his party lost faith in him. The UAP backed down in the next election and then dissolved. Menzies would not return to the Prime Minister until he had founded the Liberal Party, with a reconsidered political platform, in 1949. This established the Liberals for 23 years continuously in office.
Walter says this will be “a time of 1941” if the Liberals do not rethink and regroup because “they could do even worse in the next election.” They need to rethink “because they have long been out of step with the majority, climate change was the main thing.”
Opposition leader Peter Dutton. Credits: Dominic Lorrimer
It is true that the Liberals have not yet made a full assessment. There may still be some delayed reaction once they have done so. But Dutton has a bit of political logic on his side. Makes five key points to classmates.
First of all, it is important not to overreact. The biggest deadweight in the Coalition vote was the unpopularity of Scott Morrison. He didn’t like it very much and especially the “green green” seats among traditional liberal voters. He had come to be seen as a supporter of women and corruption. The removal of Morrison as leader should allow the Liberals to lose some of that dead weight and regain some credibility.
Dutton has already said he wants to sit down and discuss the Integrity Committee’s bill, which was drafted by independent Helen Haines.
Loading
Second, Dutton points out that the Coalition should not rush to the left in reaction to the election. The Coalition lost votes not only to its left but also to its right. In its preliminary count, some 200,000 voters left the Liberals to vote in favor of wheat. At the same time, 700,000 left the Coalition to vote for the smaller parties to the right of the Coalition, such as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Clive Palmer’s United Australia, Dutton says, citing internal liberal estimates. The Libs fragmented support on both sides.
Third, Dutton doesn’t want to clear any seats, but he doesn’t believe the green seats that were the party’s past are the future of the party. These seats, such as Menzies’ former Kooyong headquarters, Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth, Tony Abbott’s Warringah or Julie Bishop’s Curtin, were home to “aspiring” voters three generations ago.
Not anymore, Dutton argues. They have become so rich and established that they have passed into the postmaterialist phase, he says. The top priorities of the teal independents were climate change, integrity and justice for women. Dutton tells his colleagues that liberals should appeal to the new aspirational classes, middle-income people in the outer metropolitan areas and regional areas of the country.
He gives this illustration. Voters on Melbourne’s Kew River in central Kooyong want to buy an electric car as a statement, while people in the outer metropolitan areas want to buy one to save on the high price of petrol, Dutton says. These are the new aspiring voters and they are Dutton’s target audience. He has spoken publicly about families and small businesses as his main concern, and has dismissed large companies as “far removed” from the Liberals.
Loading
“My focus is on small businesses and our policies will be targeted at small and micro businesses,” he said this week at his first press conference as a leader. “The single mother who was at home with an online business. A couple who started a business with COVID. Those who lost their jobs and are now working to rebuild their business are the people I’m going to address. .
“I want people to understand and know that as you move through the shopping streets and see small concrete slabs in industrial parks that export $ 5 million worth of Australian products every year, they are the ones. I want to give – I support them so that they become bigger companies “.
James Walter, Professor Emeritus at Monash University and co-author of a two-volume history of the Australian Prime Minister, says Menzies’ rethinking of liberalism, known as his call for “forgotten people”, saw a split between the union movement on the one hand and the rich on the other. Menzies’ political goal was “people in the middle who don’t have the resources to fight either.”
In this way, Dutton’s repositioning of the liberal target audience smells like Menzies rethinking.
A post-election analysis by Microburbs, a property and marketing data analytics firm, suggests that the Liberals should not harass this audience too much. They are already in this territory. The coalition’s vote is “poor,” says its founder Luke Metcalfe, as Tom Burton told The Australian Financial Review this week.
From a detailed study of the results of individual polling booths compared to local ABS census data, “the big result is that we are seeing a continuation of the trend in the last federal election, where the support base of the Coalition is moving towards poorer and less educated people, born in Australia, ”says Metcalfe.
“Rich and educated professionals ranged from 11% to 12% against the Coalition, while poor workers in the country ranged from 3% to 4% against.”
The danger for Dutton here seems to be in overcoming. Poor workers do not necessarily match 100 percent with the aspirational class. Or, as James Walter puts it, “it’s okay to say they’re the class with aspirations, but many of them aspire to be able to afford food to put on the table.”
Loading
Fourth, Dutton expects Labor in office to be inevitably thrown to the left. Because? Because, in order to get the legislation passed in the Senate, the Albanian government will not have the numbers and will be forced to commit to the Greens, who will dominate the cross-banks of the upper house.
Finally, Dutton predicts that this will be the wrong direction for the times. The world economic cycle has changed. From disinflation to inflation, at zero percent plus normal interest rates, and that prices will rise and economic growth will suffer. “Whether in the green seats or in the woods, most people are motivated by the hip pocket,” he says. If they hurt their hip pockets, they will blame the government of the day.
And the energy price cycle has also changed, with major implications for climate change policies. Even if Labor policies do not drive up energy prices or force blackouts, Albanese has taken over in an accelerating global energy crisis. Prices are skyrocketing. The mere coincidence of an unfortunate moment could be enough for the Coalition to explode and blame Labor anyway.
“If electricity prices go up 100 percent, then climate change won’t be as important a priority as it is now,” says Dutton. Therefore, Dutton has no plans to move liberal politics to appeal to where voters are today. Keeping it broadly constant on climate change and the economy, he believes the events will bring voters back to the Liberals tomorrow.
Dutton predicts that the times, as John Howard once said, will suit him. If he is wrong, he will have given the future to Anthony Albanese.
Cut to the chase of federal politics with Jacqueline Maley’s news, opinion, and expert analysis. Subscribers can subscribe to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.