Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group stood side by side with a new left-wing alliance led by the hard left Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the share of votes in the first round of parliamentary elections, according to initial projections.
The frantic last week of campaigning will begin on Monday before the second round, as Macron centrists are still waiting to move forward, but are faced with uncertainty over whether they can win a crucial majority of seats in parliament.
According to Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimates for France Télévisions, Macron’s centrist alliance Ensemble (Together) is expected to get 25.2% of the vote. A historic alliance of left-wing parties, led by Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party, which included the Socialists and the Greens, had exactly the same number, presenting a challenge to Macron.
Turnout on Sunday is estimated to have reached an all-time low of 47%, according to polls, after the candidates described the mood among voters as angry and disillusioned with the class. politics. Government spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire said low turnout was “the key issue”.
Macron, who was re-elected president in April against far-right Marine Le Pen, needs a majority for his centrist group in the national assembly to have a free hand for his proposals to cut taxes and make changes in the welfare system. .
Parliamentary results will mark the balance of power for Macron’s second term, defining his ability to pursue internal policies such as raising the retirement age and revising the benefit system.
Mélenchon’s alliance – known as the Nupes, or New People’s Ecological and Social Union – seeks to increase its seats and reduce the number of Macron centrists. The coalition platform includes a significant increase in the minimum wage, a reduction in the retirement age to 60, and a freeze on basic food and energy prices to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
The parliamentary voting system based on constituencies and uninominal for parliament means that the exact number of seats for each group is still difficult to predict. The shape of the new parliament will become apparent only after the second round on June 19.
Based on initial estimates, Ispos predicted that Macron’s centrist alliance would win the largest part of the 577-seat parliament, occupying between 255 and 295 seats. This suggested that there was a possibility that Macron’s centrists could fall below the absolute majority, which requires 289 seats.
If Macron’s party and its centrist allies fail to gain a majority, it would be a setback for the president and could lead to disorderly bill agreements with right-wing parties in parliament or an unwanted reshuffle of the cabinet.
The left-wing alliance could occupy between 150 and 190 seats, according to Ipsos.
Macron and ministers had stepped up their campaign this week, warning that Mélenchon was dangerous and an extremist who would kill the European Union, “ally with Russia” and increase “global disorder”.
Le Pen’s far-right National Rally Party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes to win at least 15 seats this time, allowing it to form a parliamentary group and gain more visibility in the national assembly. Ipsos suggested the party could occupy up to 45 seats. Although Le Pen came second in the presidential election with a record high of 41%, the uninominal voting system for parliament has historically been difficult for his party in the legislative elections.
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Le Pen, from the bastion of Henin-Beaumont in northern France, called on his voters to protest for his party against what he called Macron’s “brutal” style of politics. He said France was suffering, citing the cost-of-living crisis as well as the treatment of English fans in the Champions League final in Paris, seen as damaging France’s image abroad.
The first weeks of the new government have been tense in the run-up to parliamentary elections, with hospital strikes and concerns over the cost of living, and Ukraine has accused Macron of being too complacent with Russia.
Macron’s new disability minister, Damien Abad, has faced two allegations of rape – which he has denied – but which have sparked street protests for women’s rights, while the new prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, has yet to has had an impact.
Macron has made it clear that ministers running in the election, including Borne, who is making his first attempt to win a seat, will have to resign if they lose.