South-east England could face severe and devastating drought without above-average rainfall this winter, while current water use restrictions in and around London are expected to last until the new year , even if the rains return, according to the ministers. A severe drought would mean even tighter restrictions, including bans on non-essential water uses such as cleaning windows and filling and maintaining swimming pools.
While it is too early to predict the weather for this winter, anything short of substantial rainfall could bring London under much tougher measures next year, experts have told the Observer. A Whitehall source said officials were being told to prepare for a potentially severe drought across the South East.
Drought is divided into four categories: prolonged dry weather, drought, severe drought, and drought recovery. If the autumn and winter do not produce substantial heavy rains, ministers have been warned, in a briefing seen by the Observer, then the south-east could reach severe drought early next year, the which will require much greater restrictions on water use.
River flows are now lower than those seen in 2012, when drought was declared in February after a dry winter, and London came close to a severe water shortage just months before the Olympics. Tony Juniper, outgoing chairman of Natural England, said: “We were saved by extreme rain in April 2012, which meant low flows rather than shutting down London.” Of the several near-droughts in recent years, he said, “this is by far the worst so far.”
The impact is likely to hit the natural environment and agriculture harder than households, according to Alastair Chisholm, director of policy at the Chartered Institute of Water and Environmental Management. Water companies will do their best to avoid rationing or fountain pipes, but farmers can expect less favorable treatment. “The environment, agriculture and everything else just goes out the window compared to public health and the need to keep people’s water supplies running,” he said.
Ministers were told this week that farmers, who face the ruin of up to half their crops, have just a month’s worth of water left as abstraction levels are now as high as they would normally be in November, the Observer can reveal. Conservation groups have also warned that some rivers are reaching the “point of no return” as they dry up into stagnant pools.
Drought was officially declared in eight of England’s 14 areas on Friday, with more under review, after a meeting on Friday of the National Drought Group, made up of the Environment Agency and other officials, water companies, the water regulator Ofwat, farming leaders and conservation groups. Storms expected starting Sunday will do little to relieve dry conditions as rain runs over dry, compacted soil, and flash flooding is possible.
Five water companies have announced hose bans so far, but farmers have called for more. Although the bans can officially be lifted as soon as the situation improves, in hard-hit south-east England, local officials are preparing for restrictions to last as late as Christmas or the New Year, it has been heard the Observer.
Spectators at Newbury Racecourse on Saturday 13th August. Photo: Steve Paston/PA
Liz Stephens, associate professor of meteorology at the University of Reading, said winter would be decisive. “We are very worried about what the next few months have in store. If we get below average precipitation in the fall and winter, we would be in a very serious situation in the spring.” He added: “If this weather persists, we will need a much wetter than average winter to recover.”
Stuart Singleton-White, of the Angling Trust, said: “Look at these graphs from the meeting, even if we have close to average rainfall, if we get river levels assuming 80% or 60% average rainfall in the long run. in the next two months, then we can avoid [severe drought]but the confidence level of reaching even 60 percent is low.
“Even if the rain reaches us, it will not reach our rivers and our aquifers because it will serve to remould the very dry soil. Unless we get significant rain for a long time, we will have a prolonged drought well into next year and potentially a severe drought.”
Experts said England was in a better position to withstand the drought than in 2012, when a series of dry winters from 2009 to 2010 seriously depleted groundwater sources, prompting the unusual declaration of a spring drought that year. Conversely, good rainfall levels in late 2021 and early this year recharged groundwater sources, which are declining but not yet at critical levels.
Chisholm said: “This drought has come very quickly. More often than not we’ve seen drought after a dry winter, but this year all the resources were very well endowed. We went very quickly from an okay situation to breaking drought records.” .