6:30 p.m. ET
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ESPN staff
Tired of waiting for commissioners to make a decision on expanding the College Football Playoff, the 11 presidents and chancellors who make up the CFP board of directors took control Friday with a unanimous vote to expand the field to 12 teams in 2026 .
The presidents have strongly urged commissioners to try to implement the new format as early as 2024. The 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick will meet next week in Irving, Texas, to begin this discussion.
After more than a year of indecision and unproductive in-person meetings, the monumental shift in the sport’s postseason happened quickly, in a one-hour virtual meeting.
How did they finally come to an agreement? Who benefits most from the new deal? And what comes next?
Heather Dinich, Adam Rittenberg and Pete Thamel break it all down.
Why are they expanding now?
The root of this expansion, like most things in college sports, comes back to money.
Two weeks ago, when the Board of Directors held an unscheduled call to launch this moment, the tone of the call was heard among the presidents that they were leaving too much money on the table. The cost of not extending over the final two years of the current College Football Playoff contract was about $450 million. And a source told ESPN that leaving so much money on the table was the motivator to get involved again. It’s certain there will be a 12-team playoff after 2026. The next few weeks should determine whether or not they can work out the logistics in time to implement it sooner.
When asked why now, on the Friday of Labor Day weekend and the college football season opener, Mississippi State president and CFP board chairman Mark Keenum went say: “It’s time.”
“It’s time to make a decision,” he said. “We need to give direction to our commissioners. We felt we needed to give them a definitive, ‘This is where we are.’ This is where we think college football needs to be headed in terms of our national champion playoff. .’ … I think our commissioners need that direction from this board, and so I’m glad we were able to give it to them today.” — Thamel
How did they end up with 12 years over 8 or 16 years?
There has always been strong support at both the presidential and commissioner level for 12 teams, and that’s partly because they like first-round byes for top-four seeds, but also because of workable logistics in the overall schedule. of college football. While there were some who at least wanted to consider the possibility of a 16-team format, there simply wasn’t enough interest.
“You start getting into some of the details and the logistics … and then someone said, ‘Well, why can’t we think about other options?'” Keenum said. “Well, I will say this, all presidents believe that the 12-team format is the right one, for this moment, at this moment.” — Dinich
How does this affect future conference realignment?
The biggest reverberation is that the six at-large bids will serve as bait to keep Notre Dame independent for the immediate future. With a clear shot at the playoffs and NBC seemingly motivated to keep Notre Dame now that it has a share of the Big Ten, the two biggest marquees in Irish independence seem primed for the immediate future.
As for the rest of college football, that’s a fascinating question. The money gap between the Big Ten’s Power Two and the SEC remains wide. There will always be motivated schools jockeying to join these leagues. But the fact that there are automatic bids for the top six conference champions adds a layer of certainty to leagues like the Pac-12 and Big 12 that have been hit by recent defections. Holistically, it helps the sport. The realignment would occur unrelated to access to the playoffs. — Thamel
Who benefits most from an extended playoff? Does it hurt anyone?
The SEC has had the most appearances (10), wins (14) and championships (5) during the CFP era, and will likely improve its field share with as many as seven slots available. Although commissioner Greg Sankey repeatedly stated the league was fine with a four-team playoff, the number of CFP-capable programs in his league, plus the additions of Oklahoma and Texas, increased the need for access . The Big Ten also benefits, as the league has had a top-12 seed in the final CFP standings, but has only had six total appearances by three teams in the four-team model.
The model is also a major win for the Group of 5 conferences, which produced its first CFP participant in the four-team system last year (Cincinnati) and unanimously supported the 12-team proposal . At least one Group of 5 program will make the 12-team playoff annually, and the enhanced profiles of leagues like the AAC and Sun Belt increase the chances of two Group of 5 participants in some years. While the Group of 5 participants will likely be road teams playing first-round matchups, they finally have a real seat at the table.
The vote is good news for Notre Dame, which will have six access points instead of four. Athletics director Jack Swarbrick was part of the four-person task force that in June 2021 presented the 12-team model, which was later adopted. He remained a staunch supporter and ally of Sankey and others during the tense commissioners’ meetings that followed.
There are no obvious losers in an expanded playoff, although the annual distribution of teams could tighten the gap between the SEC and the Big Ten and the other power conferences. A model that guarantees spots for the six highest-rated conference champions creates the possibility that leagues like the Pac-12, Big 12 or ACC are left out entirely, which would sting in multiple ways. The Pac-12 hasn’t had a CFP team since 2016, while the Big 12’s only CFP entrant, Oklahoma, will soon be leaving for the SEC. But a postseason system that triples the number of spots should, in theory, help all power leagues.
— Rittenberg
What does this mean for Notre Dame’s independence?
Notre Dame’s strong preference is to remain an independent FBS going forward. Football’s independence is central to the university’s identity, and there is a belief around college athletics that Swarbrick and president the Rev. John Jenkins, both 68, do not want to be the leaders to step down to this status before retiring.
Swarbrick’s input and support for the 12-team model underscores his belief that it will allow Notre Dame to maintain its position while still having the access it needs to compete for national championships. While some playoff stakeholders have been less willing to commit, Notre Dame approved a system in which it would never receive a first-round bye, making the path to a championship significantly more difficult.
Notre Dame will remain an expansion target for any league, namely the Big Ten, which has coveted the school for decades. But Notre Dame is less motivated by money than other expansion candidates and has left millions on the table to remain independent in football. Notre Dame was always more likely to join a conference due to playoff issues or an inability to put together a nationally competitive schedule. While scheduling concerns may increase due to the realignment, Notre Dame is positioned to regularly compete for one of the top six spots. Notre Dame has made the four-team CFP twice and has finished in the top 15 of the final CFP rankings every year since 2017.
— Rittenberg
Notre Dame’s strong preference is to remain an independent FBS going forward. Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire
Is this the last time we see playoff expansion?
One of the many unanswered questions is how long the next contract will last, which will help determine how committed the presidents are to this format. The current contract was for 12 years, and it may only be 10 years before they change the four-team field. If there’s one thing that’s true about college athletics, it’s that nothing is certain for any length of time.
Keenum couldn’t help but laugh a little when he referenced his head coach, Mike Leach, who has publicly and repeatedly stated that he favors a 64-team format.
“We will always be in a team of 12 [format]? I can’t answer that,” Keenum said. “We continue to look for ways to make the playoff even better going forward.. And my God, I have a head football coach who thinks we should have a 64-team playoff. I mean, that’s what he believes, so my point is, there’s always room for improvement.” – Dinich