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ESPN staff
The 2022 U.S. Open Championship returns to the Brookline Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, for the first time since 1988, with a course loaded with 156 golfers battling for the top 60 places to advance. 2011 U.S. Open winner Rory McIlroy enters the weekend as a favorite after winning the RBC Canadian Open last weekend. McIlroy will have to overcome a difficult field such as defending champion Jon Rahm, PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler.
Where is the value of the bets? Will favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down the course for the third major of the year.
Go to a section: Choosing experts to win | Bet value options to win | Notable golfers odds Props and more
Expert selections
Rory McIlroy won the U.S. Open in 2011 and is the favorite to win again this year. Photo by Warren Little / Getty Images
Matt Barrie, ESPNWinner: Rory McIlroy
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Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.comWinner: Will Zalatoris
Andy North, ESPN Winner: Justin Thomas
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Mark Schlabach, ESPN.comWinner: Shane Lowry
Marty Smith, ESPNWinner: Tony Finau
Curtis Strange, ESPN Winner: Cameron Smith
Wright Thompson, ESPN.com Winner: Dustin Johnson
Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com winner: Rory McIlroy
Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.comWinner: Rory McIlroy
Scott Van Pelt, ESPN Winner: Will Zalatoris
Kevin Van Valkenburg, ESPN.comWinner: Will Zalatoris
Josh Weinfuss, ESPN.com Winner: Scottie Scheffler
Bet value options to win
Our betting experts offer you options to win based on value. We look at the betting board and tell you who is most likely to collect your ticket.
Xander Schauffele will look to win his first major at the 2022 U.S. Open after finishing in the top 10 in each of his last five appearances at the event. Photo by Andrew Redington / Getty Images
Michael Collins, ESPN Senior Golf Analyst. Winner: Sam Burns (25-1)
Why he will win: Burns already have three wins this season and are close to their last three starters. With 25-1, he has a lot of value in a stacked field.
Anita Marks, ESPN betting analyst. Winner: Sungjae Im (40-1)
Why he will win: I play well on the big stage (T-2 and T-8 in the Masters, T-17 in the PGA Championship). He ticks many of the boxes when he looks at the metrics needed to win at Brookline, ranking 29th in driving accuracy, seventh in greens in regulation and third in fighting this season.
David Bearman, Deputy Sports Betting Editor, ESPN.comWinner: Justin Thomas (11-1)
Why He Wins: Thomas put on another amazing performance last week in Canada with a 63-64 weekend to almost chase Rory McIlroy. He is third in the tee-to-green of the tour and the shots won overall, 6th in approach and 14th in the tee. Thomas is possibly the hottest golfer on the tour right now and finally overcame the “second big” drought last month. Number 3 should be on the cards this weekend.
Chris Fallica, ESPN betting analyst. Winner: Dustin Johnson (40-1)
Why he will win: Johnson is a former U.S. Open champion and has enjoyed a five-final stretch in the top six in seven years. This course will require a long and precise game outside of the shirt, and this is the alley of the DJ. It hasn’t had the best of years, but at this price, it’s worth playing.
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ESPN Betting Analyst Tyler Fulghum Winner: Xander Schauffele (22-1)
Why he will win: Schauffele has never won a major, but he has always competed in the US Open. He has played the event five times throughout his career and has a T-5, T-6, T-3, 5 and T-7. Schauffele always seems to play his best when the conditions are more treacherous and the field is the deepest. It’s time for the X-Man to move forward with their first big win.
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst. Winner: Shane Lowry (35-1)
Why he will win: Lowry has just produced a T-10 in Canada to go with his T-3 finishes in both the Masters and RBC Heritage and the result of second place in the Honda Classic. It currently ranks ninth on the tour in terms of wins: get closer to the green, which is integral to a track like Brookline with postage stamp greens.
Odds of winning the 2022 US Open
Notable golfer odds on Caesars Sportsbook
GolferWinT-10 finishRory McIlroy10-1 + 130Justin Thomas11-1 + 140Scottie Scheffler12-1 + 150Jon Rahm14-1 + 165Cameron Smith18-1 + 200Jordan Spieth22-1 + 225Xander Schauffele + 22-1 + 225-1 + 225Xander Schauffele + 22-1 + 225-22-1 + 225 -1 + 250Brooks Koepka35-1 + 450Dustin Johnson40-1 + 400Bryson DeChambeau80-1 + 800Patrick Reed80-1 + 700Phil Mickelson200-1 + 1200
Props and more
Our betting experts have more than just winning bets. Below are some accessories for the entire event, from the top 10 to the cuts made to the tournament clashes.
Dustin Johnson’s Top 10 Finishes (+400)Bearman: This choice is not about the LIV Tour, but about getting a 4-1 in the top 10 of a former No. 1 player in the world, who has a strong track record of playing well in the Northeast Fields. He has six top 10s at the U.S. Open, including a win in 2016. This year hasn’t been great, but if he carries his A game and his golfs with a chip on his shoulder, that could charge the same as the 40-1 payout to win.
Collin Morikawa finished in the top 10 (+175) Bearman: I will play Morikawa to win and in the top 10, as he is without a doubt the top scorer on the tour and this course requires this type of game. His fight has always been the putter, but Morikawa discovered it in the previous two majors. This course is tailor-made for a boy approaching fifth and 20th on the tee, and a third stage of the Grand Slam is no doubt.
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Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 5 (+800) Collins: DeChambeau is healthy and surprisingly under the radar this week. This is a literal “buy” bet. He will try to do what he did at Winged Foot to win the US Open.
Playoff to decide the winner (+310) Collins: Media members hate hearing the word playoff in golf, but this week has all the potential for a three-to-four playoff. A lot of guys seem to be at their best right now.
Xander Schauffele finished in the top 10 (+225) Fallica: Although Schauffele did not achieve a major victory in the championship, he stood out in the courses of the US Open. He has released five Top 10 in each of his five appearances, with three top-5. Schauffele ranks seventh in strokes won: tee-to-green and ninth in strokes won: total. This well-rounded game should lead to another strong weekend at the U.S. Open.
Viktor Hovland will miss the cut (+225) Fallica: Hovland has not had a Top 20 in a knockout event since March and has never finished in the top 10 in a major. He’s also terrible around the green –204th in wins around the green – and given the small size of those greens, that could be a problem for him this weekend.
Finishing in the top 20 of Max Homa (+160) Marks: The first two victories of the Homa tour were both on high quality tracks in the championship. He was T5 at the Memorial, where he only needed 99 putts that week, and T-13 at the PGA Championships last month.
Adri Arnaus reaches the top 40 (2-1) Marks: Arnaus has the distance to compete this week. He has dominated the DP World Tour, finished T-30 in the PGA Championship and is the second best Spanish player, behind Jon Rahm.