Every good series is transformed at some point into a mystery: the teams that explore the lineups become schemes, into something firmer. After this threshold, both teams know the basics: who they want to play with and when; how they want to attack in attack; its defensive principles against such attacks.
The series is about execution, toughness, balance and a little luck.
These strange and fascinating NBA finals aren’t quite there, but they are nearing the strategic end. Rotations have been trimmed, schemas have been adjusted, and modified again. A team has made a change of starting lineup.
The total score is 422-421, Warriors. Both teams have 64 3s in solid to big shots. The Golden State Warriors have one more offensive rebound than the Boston Celtics and less staff loss. The Celtics have more than 7 free throws.
The notebook games – Games 1 and 4 – were similar: the road teams roared to victory behind the sweepers in the fourth quarter. The intermediate games were relative outbursts.
Defenders No. 1 and No. 2 in the league have won the day; both teams are scoring about 110.5 points for every 100 possessions, equivalent to the attack of the 20th ranked in the regular season.
2 Related
As expected, Boston feels more stable, with enough reliable support to withstand Jayson Tatum’s miserable 2-point shot; has 14 of 51 in 2, and returned to fight in game 4 to reach the balance between the decision, as much as passer and goleador, and the attack to the traffic. Golden Curry’s offense outside of Stephen Curry’s whirlwind feels precarious, though Andrew Wiggins has done his job and the Warriors have found ways to get Klay Thompson out in Boston.
Curry has 137 points; Golden State’s second-highest scorer, Thompson, has 69. Curry averages 34 points with 50 percent shooting, including 49 percent from the bottom, against a defense that obliterated everyone once Boston finished his season. in January. That defense, and Golden State’s inconsistent score around Curry, is pushing him to his limits.
Curry’s pick-and-rolls have increased in every game, following the second spectrum: 30, 35, 39, 45. That number 4 in Game 4 was the second highest of the season. Curry has only attempted 11 catch-and-shoot 3 and 40 absurd throws. (This division was closer to the regular season.) He only averaged 3.8 assists. Boston’s midfield defense has closed the beautiful game of Golden State: the rhythm of cuts and divisions and the back screens in which Draymond Green lives, which usually produces a lot of easy assisted buckets.
(Curry is 20 out of 40 in these 3 pull-ups, which is totally absurd. Robert Williams III and especially Al Horford climbed higher past Curry in Game 4. They moved their feet and navigated between two and three screens. In quick succession, Curry’s defenders – Marcus Smart and Derrick White – chased him from behind, freezing some of these 3 pull-ups and Curry getting up through a space window barely to contain his body. He’s in a phone booth. What a remarkable series for him so far.)
Williams’ mobility could end up being a deciding factor. Boston is over 20 with Williams on the ground. He handled the fine for Green’s assignment when Golden State started Green in the middle in Game 4. (He hoped Williams would protect Otto Porter Jr., with Horford at Wiggins and Tatum at Green. But coach Ime Udoka relied in Williams and it worked).
Boston has found a good balance between going small, with four guards and wings around Horford or Williams, and taking advantage of his size with two big lineups. The right combination varies from game to game, but Udoka has a good idea.
Four Boston formations have appeared in all four games. Notably, only one Golden State group has done so: their ex-and-perhaps-present-again, starting five, with both Kevon Looney and the frantic Green, a group that is over-22 in 50 minutes. Looney is a better team plus-36. Golden State has recovered a whopping 37.5% of its own faults with Looney on the ground, accumulating non-Curry points. This group finished Game 4, and Steve Kerr might want to start Game 5 (Monday, 9:00 PM ET, ABC), waiting for Green to find his rhythm during the final productive minutes of Game 4.
The Boston Celtics are tied with the Golden State Warriors 2-2 with the NBA championship in play. You can watch the action on ABC and the ESPN app.
Match 5: Monday, 9:00 pm ET, on GSGame 6: Thursday, 9:00 pm ET, on BOSGame 7: June 19, 8:00 pm ET, on GS *
*If necessary
No matter what lineup I start with, I wonder if Thompson’s job keeping Jaylen Brown in times of crisis could get Kerr to switch Green back to Horford or Williams.
Green has done a solid job on Brown, but the effect of his grunting intensity seems to have diminished. The green around the edge, in a helping position, is generally good for the Warriors defense. This was one of the reasons why the Gary Payton II-Wiggins-Green trio looked promising in Game 2; Payton and Wiggins defended Tatum and Brown, sending Green back to a great Boston.
The lineup of Curry, Payton, Wiggins, Porter and Green helped change Game 2. He recorded two combined minutes in Games 3 and 4. The Payton-Green combination made a messy space, and both Brown and Tatum are each increasingly aggressive shooting. Payton.
Kerr is plugging holes, achieving any resemblance to two-way balance. In the fourth quarter of Game 4, with the Golden State season faltering, Kerr turned to a three-guard lineup of Curry, Jordan Poole, Thompson, Wiggins and Looney: putting Green in and betting on a group with 78 minutes shared beforehand. time. This is actually a modified version of Poole Party’s previously crappy small ball group, with Looney in Green’s place; the current Poole Party has recorded eight minutes in four games. (It will be fascinating to control Green’s minutes forward.)
Kerr even played with a super-duper-small ball, briefly playing Curry, Poole, Payton and Thompson together. Now it seems too late to throw Jonathan Kuminga or Moses Moody into the fight, but maybe Kerr could dare in a home game. There will be adjustments that we do not see coming.
The Celtics let Poole take off during Game 4 stretch as his offense unraveled again. This time it was not the business losses, although Boston committed 16, 10 of which were robberies. (Forty of Boston’s 60 loss of possession have been of the live ball variety that ignites Golden State’s fastball. Only 27 of Golden State’s 59 coughs have been live ball thefts.)
Throughout the game, Boston appeared rushed and anxious during the stretches. The Celtics led head-to-head against the best Golden State defenders when a single action would have produced something more favorable. They took 3s of pull-up insulation at the beginning of the clock: Smart (22% in 3s of pull-up this season) over Looney, Payton Pritchard goes to the ball hero in half transition, Brown lost almost everything after dancing with Nemanja Bjelica.
The Thompson tree that gave Golden State the lead forever came after Brown turned down a selection of whites – with Poole against the whites – to go to Thompson one on one. Thompson hooked up with Brown and forced an ugly float. Use the selection and make Poole work. Tatum missed a previously contested tray by doing the same, with Wiggins reading Tatum’s intention to turn down the selection and stuck to his hip.
Composing things, Boston spacing went wrong in some of these units. Watch White and Williams cut the paint as Tatum climbs up to get there:
Even a couple of 3s of Boston’s momentum and kick in the crunchy time, a foul by Tatum, another by Horford, played pretty well because the momentum that produced them came against Golden’s best defenders. State and did not generate enough traction. to really suck the help. (Don’t overlook fatigue, both mental and physical, as a possible driver of these puzzling end-of-game stretches from Boston. The Celtics’ best players have had a lot of heavy postseason minutes now.)
When the Celtics perfected their game plan, they mostly got what they wanted. They have relied on the two-person Tatum-Smart game to generate mishaps for Tatum all postseason. They redirected some of these pick-and-rolls to off-ball actions with the same effect. Tatum and Brown would engage in off-ball action with whatever Celtic had Curry or Poole protecting him: pin-downs, flare screens, even Tatum throwing under the edge for Pritchard.
Golden State was reluctant to change these actions although it has largely been okay to change Curry and even Poole to Tatum in the pick-and-roll. Any defense other than changing, chasing the election, shooting the gap, whatever it is, opens up gaps and the Celtics found a good look in those gaps.
The Warriors ’willingness to switch Curry to Tatum and Brown in pick-and-rolls has been one of the most startling subplots, though I’m not sure it surprised the Boston coaches. It seems like Golden State would rather give Boston a size mismatch than put two on the ball, as it did when Luka Doncic dragged Curry into the game and the ball, and turned on Boston’s passing game.
The Boston Celtics are tied with the Golden State Warriors 2-2 in the final, with the game on Monday 5 (9pm ET, ABC) in San Francisco.
GAME 4: GS 107, BOS 97• Curry’s epic series of game changes
GAME 3: BOS 116, GS 100• The Celts use size, speed to regain control • Curry in unfamiliar territory
GAME 2: GS 107, BOS 88• Steph was a problem for the Celtics • The C’s regret more problems in the third quarter
GAME 1: BOS 120, GS 108• Boston’s victory a year in the making • The Celtics beat Dubs in their game
• Serial keys | Expert Selections | Possibilities
The Warriors want to force Boston to play one-on-one in the mud. They bet on their ability to help, confuse the stars of Boston and force the changes that drive their rapid breaks. (That said, the Warriors could be more diligent in selecting when Smart is the ball handler and Tatum is the driver).
The Celtics in Game 3 felt comfortable attacking these switches. As Horford slid toward the center, they placed everyone around the arch, opening the lane for Tatum and Brown’s rotating and sweeping units by Curry and Poole. When …