The Calgary Flames are in a bit of a financial predicament.
Both Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk have stressed their desire to stay in Calgary for the long term. If the Flames are able to make deals with these two, you can bet they will be expensive.
Beyond closing out their two 100-point stars, the Flames still have considerable contract work ahead of them.
Announcement – Continue reading below
Andrew Mangiapane has just scored 35 goals and 55 points. Oliver Kylington racked up 31 points in his first full season as an NHL defender. They both need new offers.
While Kylington could be in line for a bridge contract as a pending restricted free agent, Mangiapane only has one more year ahead of him before he can test the UFA market. A long-term deal is a great possibility for him.
Ideally, the Flames would like to reclaim all of their major outstanding free agents. Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangiapane are the three best ends of the Flames; Kylington is one of the most dynamic players in the Flames’ shallow defensive talent.
As things stand, the Flames have about $ 55.5 million committed to eight forwards, four defenders and two goalkeepers for the 2022-23 season. That leaves them about $ 27 million below the $ 82.5 million salary cap with a minimum of six list positions (and probably a couple more) to fill.
Announcement – Continue reading below
We assume that Gaudreau, Tkachuk and Mangiapane are worth $ 25 million. By then, the Flames would be just $ 2 million below the limit with only 17 players on their roster. This will not fly.
Who stays here? For starters, Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar are unlikely to go anywhere.
Dillon Dube and Juuso Valimaki have uncertain destinies, but are unlikely to be moved for head reasons. Both make relatively insignificant figures and would presumably have value in the hockey trades. They may not stay, but their contracts are not exactly problematic.
There are two players left: Sean Monahan and Milan Lucic.
Monahan, 27, has one year left on his deal with a maximum hit of $ 6.375 billion; Lucic, 33, also has one year left and it costs the Flames $ 5.25 million against the limit, although that figure is more than it seems.
Both Monahan and Lucic have had an excellent career. Both also fell far short of expectations in the 2021-22 season. While it’s not too far-fetched to imagine Monahan bouncing at some point, the Flames have to release some of their money to use elsewhere.
Announcement – Continue reading below
The good news is that Flames CEO Brad Treliving should have multiple options available to move from Lucic and / or Monahan. As mentioned, both players have only one year left on their respective bids.
Escaping your contracts may not be a painless endeavor, but it is also far from impossible.
The trade route
In theory, it seems like the easiest option. The Flames can look for a team willing to roll the dice on Lucic and / or Monahan for a year while receiving an asset to absorb their contracts.
Well, it may not be that easy. On the one hand, teams that can afford to reach a $ 5 million limit while having the flexibility on the roster to fit in a Monahan or a Lucic are virtually destined exclusively to miss the playoffs, and both Monahan as Lucic have the contractual power. exercise a certain level of control over your potential destinations.
Theoretically, a team like the Arizona Coyotes would probably be all about a player like Sean Monahan … but his 10-team no-change clause could put a key in that equation.
Monahan will earn $ 6 million in base salary this coming season. Its non-change clause is relatively lenient. And here’s the thing: Monahan also has future contract negotiations to consider. Even if a team like Arizona is on his NTC, would it be better for him to play the final year of his current contract as a fourth-line center in Calgary or as a center-back in the top six in the desert?
Announcement – Continue reading below
While Monahan’s case is fairly straightforward (his deal is all base salary and his NTC only covers 10 teams), Lucic has a fascinating contract that allows him to control his situation much more.
From July 1, Lucic will be able to give the Flames a list of 10 teams to which he will accept a change. That’s right: Monahan’s agreement allows him to choose 10 teams that can’t be changed, while Lucic’s contract clause is exactly the opposite.
But here’s the catch. Also in early July, the Flames owe Lucic their $ 3 million signing bonus. After that, he will have $ 5.25 million against his salary cap, but they will only have to pay him a base salary of $ 875,000.
Any team that acquires Lucic after paying their bonus will be able to approach $ 5.25 million more than the salary cap while on the hook for less than $ 1 million in real money. This seems like a dream come true for budget teams like Arizona and Ottawa.
Again, Lucic should probably agree to go to any of these places. There’s also the question of what exactly it would cost the Flames to persuade another team to take on one of their hard-to-handle contracts.
Announcement – Continue reading below
Last summer, it looked like the Coyotes had acquired half of the bad assets in the entire National Hockey League. Andrew Ladd, Anton Stralman, Shayne Gostisbehere … the gods, they played in Arizona last year.
The following is what cost the Coyotes to dump their unwanted contracts during the low season of 2021:
In Arizona: D Anton Stralman (one year, $ 5.5 million maximum success) D Vladislav Kolyachonok (2019 second round selection) 2024 second round selection
In Florida: Selection of the seventh round of 2023
In Arizona: D Shayne Gostisbehere (two years, $ 4.5 million successful) Selection of the second round of 2022 Selection of the seventh round of 2022
Announcement – Continue reading below
In Philadelphia: Future Considerations
In Arizona: LW Andrew Ladd (two years, $ 5.5 million maximum success) 2021 Second Round Selection (60th overall – Janis Moser) 2022 Second Round Selection 2023 Conditional Third Round Selection
For New Yorkers: Future Considerations
Undoubtedly, the Coyotes received valuable assets in exchange for taking on the Ladd, Gostisbehere and Stralman contracts. That said, they did not receive any first-round picks in any of these bids.
The only first-round players who acquired the Yotes last summer came to them in exchange for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Darcy Kuemper and Christian Dvorak: offers where they sold valuable players (yes, they recovered expired offers from Canucks to make money). work on the OEL agreement, but this is not very relevant).
Announcement – Continue reading below
Last year, the Panthers gave up a second-round player and a similar young defender to move Stralman, who approved the move to Arizona, and create room to expand Anthony Duclair and Sam Bennett. It’s hard to imagine the price being too different to move Monahan or Lucic, assuming Flames can find a destination that works for everyone.
If you could give up a second-round pick and a player like Juuso Valimaki to move someone like Monahan and free up the space needed to re-sign Andrew Mangiapane, would you?
The purchase route
On the one hand, buying Lucic makes no sense.
FIG. 1: Purchase details of Milan Lucic
Year Original Cap Hit (Flames) Original Cap Hit (Oilers) Exclusion Head Hit (Flames) Purchase Cap Hit (Oilers) Flame Saving 2022–23 $ 5,250,000 $ 750,000 $ 4,666,667 $ 666,667 $ 666,667 $ 666,666 $ 666,666 $ 2002,666 $ 2002,666 $ 2002,666 $ 2002,666 $ 2002,363 $
The Flames could not even afford a replacement for Lucic next season if they bought him. It is a complete non-initiator.
Announcement – Continue reading below
The purchase of Monahan is a significantly more realistic proposal, although it would result in the Flames being punished with a $ 2 million penalty in 2023-24.
That said, would you rather spend selections and / or prospects to eliminate $ 6.337 million or not give up additional assets to release $ 4 million?
FIG. 2: Purchase details of Sean Monahan
Year Achieved original maximum Achieved maximum purchase Savings 2022–23 $ 6,375,000 $ 2,375,000 $ 4,000,000 2023–24 0 $ 2,000,000 $ – $ 2,000,000
If the Flames can’t find a handy trading partner for Monahan this summer, buying the last year of their deal could be the way to release the money they need to fit Mangiapane and Tkachuk under cover.
The path to retirement
This section belongs mainly to Lucic.
Let’s be clear: Lucic has had a hellish career. He has been a formidable National Hockey League presence for 15 seasons, playing 1,096 games in the regular season and 136 more in the playoffs.
Lucic has a Stanley Cup ring and 565 career points (226 goals, 339 assists) in the NHL. He won the 2007 Memorial Cup and was named MVP of the tournament. He has done all this while playing a style of punishment that comes with his toll.
According to Treliving, Lucic played through an AC joint sprain at the end of the 2021-22 season. In his last 48 games of the year, he only scored one goal and four points.
During a similar stretch of declining production in the 2019-20 season, Lucic contemplated retirement. He finished that year strong, had a very nice 2020-21 campaign and started 2021-22 well before hitting a wall along the stretch.
As mentioned above, Lucic is being paid a $ 3 million signing bonus in early July. This is your money. If Lucic retired after receiving this bonus, all of his maximum success for the 2022-2023 season would fade into the air and he would only lose his $ 1 million base salary for the season.
Will Lucic play for $ 1 million? If I were a free agent today, I would probably receive more valuable offers. It’s hard to say, and only he knows the answer to that question. He is a proud and competitive guy.
If the answer is “no”, then the …