HESTA says Accel could become an acquisition target for a privately held player (protected from public scrutiny) with a special interest in keeping its raw coal-generating assets running longer.
But back to the numbers.
If we assume that Cannon-Brookes can vote 11.2% of the shares it has bought or lent, it is in a strong opening position.
The vote that will determine the outcome of the split requires 75% to be in favor, so it will fail if 25% vote against the proposed split. The problem is, not all shareholders actually vote. In fact, the analysis of voting patterns over many years suggests that only 50% of eligible voters actually voted at shareholders ’meetings.
The smaller the number of votes cast, the greater the weight of those who vote. If only half of AGL shareholders vote, Cannon-Brookes’ effective vote doubles to nearly 23 percent. If HESTA’s support is added to Cannon-Brookes and it assumes even a small vote of support from another institutional shareholder or some retail investors, it’s a done deal.
But it is also worth noting that more shareholders are coming out to vote on important issues such as a major corporate restructuring. For example, two-thirds of shareholders voted at the recent Tabcorp split meeting.
If a similar proportion of AGL shareholders voted, Cannon-Brookes ’effective voting power would increase by about 17.5 percent.
‘I’m with you on this. We only have a few actions in our SMS, but we will use all the votes we have to support you. It is the future of our children. “
Catherine on Twitter
There are a couple of big American funds, Blackrock and Vanguard, whose votes will be crucial. Earlier, Vanguard lobbied the AGL board on the risks of climate change and voted against the only AGL director re-elected last year.
Meanwhile, at the same AGL meeting in September, more than half of its shareholders, including Blackrock and Vanguard, challenged the board and voted in favor of a climate activist resolution calling for consideration of new targets that they forced a coal out earlier than expected.
That said, these investors tend to vote with boards on issues such as restructuring, so it’s hard to know which way to go.
The mother and father of retail investors will play an important role in deciding the fate of AGL. And a noisy group of them has used social media to support Cannon-Brookes, some of whom have recently acquired AGL shares only to vote against their split proposal.
“I’m with you on this. We only have a few actions on our SMS, but we will use all the votes we have to support you. It’s the future of our children,” Catherine says on Twitter.
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