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“You have a liberal base, where if you ask them who would be the best prime minister, less than half of them are willing to say Steven Del Duca,” the professor says.
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May 25, 2022 • 21 minutes ago • 4 minutes of reading • 38 comments Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford makes a campaign stop at the Finishing Trades Institute of Ontario in North York, Ontario on Tuesday, May 17 of 2022. Photo by Christopher Katsarov / The Canadian Press
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With Ontario’s election entering the final stretch, clues suggest a tumultuous session as Doug Ford’s computers prepare for a second majority in Queen’s Park.
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The latest Postmedia / Leger poll on Wednesday suggests that Conservative leadership throughout the campaign remains strong, with 38% of respondents intending to vote PC.
Steven Del Duca’s Liberals fell from 28 to 26 percent over the past week, and the NPD rose from one to 24 percent.
Mike Schreiner’s Green Party got six percent support while Jim Karahalios’ New Blues got three percent, one point ahead of Derek Sloan’s Ontario game.
But while almost all polls predict another big PC victory, McMaster political science professor Peter Graefe said the undecided vote may have something to say about it.
“As Andrea Horwath’s last act, do you have the rabbits to take off your hat to convince a group of those liberal voters to come to the NPD?” he asked.
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About 44 percent of respondents said their decision was not final.
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Dissatisfaction with computers fuels the rise of unconventional Conservative parties in Ontario
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Ontario polls suggest a fierce battle ahead: for second place
Among the three major parties, the Liberal supporters were the least firm, with only 43% saying they were determined.
This compares with 64 per cent of determined PC voters and 67 per cent of NPD supporters who say their vote is final.
A curious metric in many polls, including Leger’s figures, suggests that there are torrents of discontent in the Ontario Liberal Party, especially when it comes to trust in its leader.
“You have a liberal base, where if you ask them who would be the best prime minister, less than half of them are willing to say Steven Del Duca,” Graefe said.
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When asked who they think will form the next Ontario government, only 35% of declared Liberal voters said Del Duca, while 41% of the same people thought Doug Ford’s victory was inevitable.
Only 45 percent of Liberals said Del Duca was the best choice for the prime minister, compared to 81 percent of the PC, 73 percent of the NPD and 54 percent of the Greens who thought his leader of the party was the person who ran the province.
“This is an incredible sign of disillusionment with the (liberal) campaign,” Graefe explained.
“It’s also the party with the softest vote in terms of people saying they could vote for another party; you know their decision isn’t firm.”
Fifty-five percent of all respondents said Ford computers will form the next government, the first time that exceeds 50 percent.
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Twenty-two percent said they would win Del Duca or Horwath, one point less than those who answered “I don’t know.”
Andrew Enns of Leger said this illustrates the challenges facing the Liberals in introducing the PC message.
“Steven Del Duca has probably not consolidated his good faith with voters,” he said.
When asked to rank a number of attributes for the leaders of the three major parties, respondents assigned “discovery” (26 percent), “disinterested” (25 percent) and “getting things done” ( 25 percent). cent) to Ford.
The attributes assigned to Horwath were almost statistically linked between “unprepared to govern” and “ready to govern.”
With 29 percent, the top attribute assigned to the Liberal leader was “I don’t know,” with “unwilling to govern” and “boring” rounding out the top three.
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Andrea Horwath has a chance to get another four or five percent of the electorate
Pere Graefe
Just under 70 percent of Liberal voters chose the NDP as their second choice, making the New Democrats the first choice for all declared voters.
“The chance is that Andrea Horwath will find another four or five percent of the electorate,” Graefe said.
“The numbers are there for the possibility of a late rise in the NDP.”
Poll numbers suggest NDP support is consolidating, Enns agreed, which could translate into some interesting election night results.
“Some surprises are possible,” he said, noting that some hotly contested regions, including Hamilton / Niagara and even Toronto, could produce one or two surprises.
“There’s a scenario here where PCs are back with a potentially improved majority,” Enns said.
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“As the divisions work, they could come back with a few extra seats than they had.”
As the NPD and the Liberals are unlikely to form a government on June 2, questions are being asked about the future of both leaders after election day.
“This is his best chance to become prime minister, and if he doesn’t come out I suspect he can move on,” Graefe said of Horwath.
The poll was conducted May 20-23 from a panel of 1,503 randomly selected Ontario voters with a margin of error of ± 2.5 per cent, 19 times 20.
• Email: bpassifiume@postmedia.com | Twitter: bryanpassifiume
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