Former Winnipeg Mayor Glen Murray is far and away the leading candidate to become the city’s next mayor, a Probe Research poll suggests.
Murray, who served as Winnipeg’s mayor from 1998 to 2004, is the preferred mayoral candidate of 44 per cent of decided voters who responded to Probe’s online survey of 622 Winnipeg adults, conducted from July 14 to 25.
Murray had a sizable lead over the 11 other registered candidates, none of whom garnered more than 20 percent support from decided voters in the Probe poll.
“The former mayor is in a strong position going into the next phase of the campaign. He benefits from strong leadership and the view that his significant political experience matters,” Probe Research said in the survey document.
Murray served a full term and part of a second term as mayor of Winnipeg before resigning to run for federal office. He also served as the Ontario Liberal member of the provincial Parliament and a cabinet minister.
Murray said he is not taking his great leadership for granted.
“I’m doing 10 or 12 events on the weekends, seven to twelve on weekdays. We want to be the hardest working campaign,” Murray said Thursday at The Forks.
County of Sant Jaume for two terms. Scott Gillingham came second in the poll, attracting 16 percent of decided voters who responded.
Former Winnipeg Center Liberal MP Robert-Falcon Ouellette is in third place, with 13 per cent.
“The current St. James councilor and former Winnipeg Center Liberal MP are the next leading contenders, but both have a long way to go before they pose a significant threat to Murray’s mayoral bid again Probe said.
No other candidate scored in double digits.
Business consultant Jenny Motkaluk, who won 38 per cent of the popular vote in the 2018 Winnipeg mayoral race, is in fourth place with 8 per cent support, the Probe poll suggests.
Probe said Motkaluk “has key pockets of support, but is dealing with strong negative views of her after she made comments criticizing The Forks over their plans to celebrate Canada Day.”
Businessman and author Shaun Loney, who was the first candidate to declare his intention to run in the race, is in fifth place, with six percent.
“Loney is seen as having good ideas, but suffers from a significant lack of name recognition and may be losing support to Murray and (to a lesser extent) Ouellette,” Probe said.
Former Manitoba Liberal Party leader and lawyer Rana Bokhari is in sixth place, with four per cent.
“Bokhari’s accessible voter base is relatively small,” Probe said, adding that “it’s surprising given his tenure as a former provincial Liberal leader.”
Rick Shone, owner of The Wilderness Supply, received support from three percent of survey respondents.
Security company owner Don Woodstock, food delivery driver Jessica Peebles and 2018 mayoral race registrant Desmond Thomas each got two percent.
Grocery worker Chris Clacio and engineer Idris Adelakun each attracted one percent.
Murray leads substantial, not insurmountable
Probe Research Fellow Mary Agnes Welch said Murray’s lead over the other candidates is substantial three months before the civic election. He also described the ex-mayor’s support as very broad.
“Right now, he has support among critical groups of voters. Women, seniors, who vote!, and kind of in those suburbs south of Winnipeg. He already has inroads into those really critical voting blocs,” Welch said in front of Probe’s office in downtown Winnipeg. .
He also noted that Murray’s leadership is not insurmountable. In the 2014 Winnipeg mayoral race, former MP and NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis had a big lead over the summer, but ended up losing to Brian Bowman on Election Day.
Gillingham said he is not worried about Murray’s lead right now.
“There are three months left before election day,” he said outside the town hall. “Mr Murray has name recognition. We understand he was advertising while the survey was being conducted.”
Sant Jaume Coun. Scott Gillingham is second in the Probe poll, with 16 percent support. (CBC)
Probe Research also asked respondents how likely they were to vote for registered candidates and potential candidates. Murray remained the most popular candidate, albeit with a narrow lead over Gillingham and Ouellette.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they would definitely or possibly vote for Murray, compared to 51 percent for Gillingham and 50 percent for Ouellette.
Murray and Gillingham have been active on the campaign trail, each making several public policy announcements. Ouellette has not held a briefing since signing up in May.
“I know you’re wondering why I’m not running a little more,” Ouellette said Thursday in an interview at the Riel House National Historic Site in St. vital
“We’re going to a few events and we’re working with the team, but we’re also enjoying the summer. It’s going to be a very long campaign. There’s still 92 days until the election.”
Of the registered candidates, Motkaluk garnered the most negative sentiment, with 43% of respondents saying they would definitely not vote for her.
The Probe poll also found that Murray was the candidate of choice for NDP and Liberal voters who took part in the poll, while Gillingham was the preferred candidate for the Progressive Conservatives.
Robert-Falcon Ouellette is in third place with 13%, though he hasn’t made news since his registration in May. (Bartley Kives/CBC)
Probe Research conducted its survey using a representative sample of respondents collected from the company’s own Winnipeg panel and supplemented with respondents from a national panel.
As an online panel, no margin of error can be attributed to the sample. A random, non-convenience representative sample of 622 adults would have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, 19 times out of 20, Probe said.
The Winnipeg election is scheduled for October 26.