For several years, Luis Virla boarded a bus and then moved to a train as part of his commute to Calgary. But like many, once the pandemic began, it slowed down the use of traffic.
Even now with the pandemic restrictions almost gone and his anxiety about catching the virus, the 36-year-old is still not passing through Calgary in transit for his job at a tech startup. Instead, he spends most of his work at home.
If you need to go to the office, drive or take a walk.
“I’ve had very little traffic since the pandemic,” Virla said.
As part of a family of four, including two young children, he realizes that he will have to get back into the habit of using the bus and eventually training because of his home with a car.
“I would definitely take the shuttle again, but I probably wouldn’t want to travel every day,” he said, preferring more flexibility.
Public transportation across the country is still falling sharply compared to pre-pandemic levels, even as more people return to the office and gas prices hit record highs.
The number of users on Calgary Transit is increasing, but it is still only about half of what it was before the pandemic. (Geneviève Normand / Radio-Canada)
Long recovery ahead
Although vehicle use and air travel have recovered almost completely from the pandemic, traffic use may still take a few years to return to normal levels, observers said.
Statistics Canada’s most recent user figures come from March 2022. This was the twelfth consecutive month of year-on-year growth in urban traffic. However, the number of users is only 52 percent of what it was at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.
“The nature of work and work-related travel has changed significantly since the pandemic,” said Raktim Mitra, an associate professor in the School of Urban and Regional Planning at the Metropolitan University of Toronto.
More people walk and bike when they can, he said, and it can be hard to break the habit of driving. Some travelers are still aware of the space and are concerned about COVID-19, after being told they were physically distancing themselves for much of the past two years, he added.
“My guess is that it will take us at least two, three, four years to get back to where we were, if we ever go back,” he said.
The need to travel has diminished and could remain so for five years or more, says Raktim Mitra of the Metropolitan University of Toronto. (Craig Chivers / CBC)
The latest employment figures show that about 19 per cent of employed Canadians still work from home, compared to 30 per cent during much of the pandemic. About five percent have a hybrid agreement where they divide their time between office and work from home.
Calgary has experienced one of the highest recoveries of weekday foot traffic in the city center compared to pre-pandemic levels in North America, according to an index by commercial real estate services firm Avison Young, which uses aggregate mobile phone location data.
However, the influx of workers in the city center is driven mainly by cars and trucks. The total number of Calgary Transit users has increased recently, reaching about 55 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
“Calgary is heavily influenced by people who like to drive. And our downtown market has a lot of people who have historically always wanted to drive to work. This has made people more comfortable with how to get back to work. the office, “said Todd Throndson, general manager of Avison Young in Calgary.
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There are different emerging trends about returning to the office across the country, says Todd Throndson, CEO of Avison Young in Calgary.
Many travelers in the city realize that trains and buses can be spacious on Mondays and Fridays, while the rest of the week is full; many companies only require workers to be in the office Tuesday through Thursday.
“There are some interesting things going on with the passage regarding the return to the office,” said Stephen Tauro, a spokesman for Calgary Transit. “We are in a transition.”
The number of users in the city is slowing down and is expected to gradually increase over the summer, Tauro said, with a jump expected in September with the return of school and more people to the office. However, you are not sure when the user will be fully recovered.
Uneven recovery
The use of public transportation varies across the country, with some Ontario cities such as Brampton and London reporting that the number of users is recovering to more than 70% of pre-pandemic levels. In some small cities, however, the user has dropped by 80% compared to 2019 levels.
“I think a lot of people go back to work, so they’re getting busier every day,” said Zain Mazhar, before boarding a bus as part of his trip from Mississauga to Ajax, Ontario.
For most of last year, Tina Huang would normally have empty seats next to her on the bus to Toronto, but “she’s full there now.”
Fewer users saw a sharp drop in traffic revenue in recent years, which was offset by billions of dollars in temporary government support. Many traffic agencies are still juggling to offer more routes and services to lure customers back, while trying to control costs.
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Traffic agencies should be prepared to increase the number of users, says Josipa Petrunic, president of the Canadian Urban Traffic Research and Innovation Consortium.
Some in the industry are optimistic about the rapid increase in the number of people across the country, especially in large cities.
That’s when transit agencies should plan to increase demand, said Josipa Petrunic, president of the Canadian Urban Transit Research & Innovation Consortium, a Toronto-based nonprofit.
She expects to reach a turning point as more people continue to return to the office, combined with rising levels of immigration and population.
“Suddenly, people will be very upset about a traffic service that is not fast, not convenient, not on time, it doesn’t take them where they need to go,” he said. “Meanwhile, the price of gasoline is on the ceiling and the bank is breaking down.”
Overall, Petrunic expects it will take two years for users across the country to overcome the pandemic and return to 2019 levels.