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July 5, 2022 • 55 minutes ago • 3 minutes of reading • Join the conversation An illustration of the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19. Getty Images jpg, SP
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Some infectious disease experts say the rise in virus transmission indicators is a “summer wave,” but in Gray-Bruce the waters remain calm.
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Specialists now often use wastewater data to identify transmission trends in Ontario, as COVID-19 testing, while consistent among those eligible, is no longer done broadly enough to draw a detailed picture.
Sewage data in Ontario is imperfect. People living in rural areas often do not feed the data set. However, the figures show a clear increase in June in all areas tested.
The results may not be surprising given the current context. Ontario Science Table mobility data shows that Ontarians drive to their jobs, retail stores, recreational outings, and use public transportation at a rate nearly double that at many points in the past two years. Meanwhile, COVID-19 prevention measures, such as mask mandates and capacity restrictions, are no longer in place in most environments.
In Gray-Bruce, however, increased mobility and the lack of widespread preventive measures to protect against COVID-19 transmission have yet to be presented in the growing data indicators.
Dr. Ian Arra, Gray-Bruce’s official health doctor, said none of the case counts, hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care units have a trend in the region.
At the provincial level, Gray-Bruce had the second highest number of new cases week after week in the province as estimated on Tuesday.
No outbreaks of COVID-19 were confirmed at any long-term care center, retirement home or hospital in the region, although two outbreaks are suspected.
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Arra said there have been no premature deaths as a result of an outbreak in several months in Gray-Bruce.
“We haven’t seen it here yet, if it will happen,” Arra said of the summer wave. “I don’t think that’s a changing trend.”
In Gray-Bruce, just under 75% of the region’s population is vaccinated with two doses. The figure is one of the lowest in the province. More than 50 percent of the region’s population has received three doses of COVID-19 vaccines, which is close to half the pack in Ontario.
According to data from the control panel of the Ontario Science Board on Tuesday, which shows cases and hospitalizations for 1 million people a day, it is estimated that those who remain unvaccinated are almost twice as likely to test positive for the virus, five times more likely to be there. hospital with COVID-19, and four times more likely to be admitted to the ICU.
Arra said there are several factors for those who choose not to get vaccinated. He cited the systems of personal and individual beliefs and the relative or perceived security of those of Gray-Bruce.
“People in other parts of the province have seen dozens killed in long-term care outbreaks,” Arra said. “People who are on the fence may feel that there is no added benefit, obviously there is an added benefit… The data is very clear about protection.”
He said the difference in vaccine absorption between health units is not statistically significant.
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“It’s trivial,” he said. “It won’t change the result on the ground.”
He also said the Omicron variant is so transmissible that a large percentage of the population is likely to have some immunity through previous vaccinations or infections.
Arra said there is likely to be another increase in cases of COVID-19 and transmission in the fall, as is usual with viruses.
Recently, Federal Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos said booster injections may be needed every nine months to stay up to date and vaccinate effectively.
Currently in Ontario, only those who are 60 years of age or older, residents of First Nations, Inuit and Métis communities 18 years of age or older, those living in long-term care homes, retirement homes and environments are eligible. of congregation, and some immunocompromised people. the next round of reinforcements.
Arra said he did not think repeated reinforcing injections of COVID-19 would be required in perpetuity. He said there are currently two schools of thought among experts and believes the COVID-19 virus will eventually mutate to the point that its effect on the population is no longer severe enough to need vaccines to protect itself.
“Hopefully in the near future, not in many years, that’s the way it is,” he said.
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