New Brunswick Liberal leadership candidate Susan Holt has emerged as the “change” candidate in the party’s race that concludes this weekend.
But it won’t be clear until Saturday’s result how real — or ephemeral — that support will be.
Holt is relentlessly promoting social media posts on Twitter from New Brunswickers describing her as a fresh face, different from mainstream politicians.
“I can’t say I’ve even given much thought to why I have this feeling, but she’s giving me hope for politicians in general and for provincial government,” said Jamie Nason, a resident of Tracy, a rural community outside. Fredericton.
Nason is a self-described progressive voter, as is Douglas Mullin, a long-time NDP candidate and volunteer who recently bought a Liberal affiliation to vote for Holt.
“For the Liberal Party, what it’s presenting is definitely fresh,” he said.
JP Lewis, a political scientist at the University of New Brunswick in Saint John, said Holt’s social media frenzy doesn’t necessarily reflect reality, but that “these are our best indications of what’s going on… It may be the only information we have. can see clearly.”
JP Lewis, a political scientist at the University of New Brunswick Saint John, said Holt’s social media support doesn’t necessarily reflect reality, but could be “our best indication of what’s going on.” (Graham Thompson/CBC)
“New” is a common theme
All four candidates in the leadership race are being promoted as new in one way or another.
Former MP TJ Harvey posts messages of support on his Facebook page from New Brunswickers. Liberal MP Robert Gauvin’s history as a former Progressive Conservative underscores his unique form of novelty.
Even former Liberal minister and MP Donald Arseneault argues that he intentionally created a campaign team made up of people from outside the party’s old guard.
But Arseneault warns that the temptation to elect a new leader has caused the Liberals pain in the last two provincial elections.
Holt is “definitely a strong candidate. She has a lot of qualities that would make her a great leader,” Arseneault said.
But “we went with new faces in the past. The last two [leaders]we went through new faces and look where we are now.”
Former premier Brian Gallant, left, and former Liberal leader Kevin Vickers. (James West/The Canadian Press (left) and Mike Heenan/CBC (right))
He was referring to former premier Brian Gallant, who failed to secure a second majority in 2018 and lost power, and Kevin Vickers, a political newcomer who failed to unseat the Progressive Conservatives in 2020.
Nason could not identify a specific policy or issue that Holt has raised that won her over.
“It’s the fact that he’s acknowledging that people have concerns,” he said.
“I can’t even say that there’s any specific issue that he’s come up with where I’ve said, ‘This thing really needs to be taken care of.’ , at least”.
leap of faith
Mullin said he knows NDP-leaning voters have been persuaded to cast strategic votes for the Liberals in the past, only to be disappointed.
But he said he’s known Holt for more than a decade, so he’s taking a leap of faith that he’ll live up to his promise.
“I believe what he’s saying at this point. So I trust him for now.”
We know it’s definitely not the first politician to say they will bring a new approach to politics – JP Lewis
But New Brunswick’s new interim NDP leader, Alex White, said it’s unlikely Holt will actually break the mold.
“Regardless of Liberal Party leadership … policies have very rarely changed or improved the lives of everyday Canadians,” White said.
Lewis said Holt’s message was “quite abstract, and we know it’s definitely not the first politician to say they’re going to bring a new approach to politics.”
Nason said she doesn’t personally know people as excited as she is about Holt, although she sees many online, especially on Twitter.
“Maybe it’s just because he’s been smart enough to have a big social media presence,” Nason said.
“It’s worked before. Social media stardom has taken politicians where they wanted to go. Maybe that’s all there is to it. But it feels different… She seems to be what I want a politician to be.”
Lewis said the wave of enthusiasm for Holt can’t be ignored, even if it may dissipate between now and the next election in 2024, and that’s assuming Holt wins.
If Holt doesn’t win, it’s not clear the people he’s drawn to the party will want to stick around for a different leader. Mullin said he hasn’t decided what he’ll do if that happens.
Arseneault said that while “new blood” is important to a political party, longtime party supporters cannot be taken for granted.
“We cannot leave them aside,” said the former minister, who argues that election campaigns are important efforts that are complicated to organize. “It also needs people with experience.”
Holt has also been endorsed by a number of old-guard Liberals, including former cabinet ministers Aldéa Landry, Bernard Thériault, Bernard Richard, Roly MacIntyre and Mary Schryer.
He also worked in the government of former premier Brian Gallant.
Still, Lewis said the buzz about Holt from non-Liberals is a positive sign for a party that hasn’t enjoyed much good electoral news since 2014.
“The New Brunswick Liberal Party needs any excitement it can get,” Lewis said.