The thorny diplomatic relationship between China and Australia has dominated foreign policy in recent years, with provocative rhetoric and public disputes showing no signs of release.
Relations declined sharply after Beijing and Canberra clashed over several issues, prompting diplomatic stagnation and a damaging trade war.
Key disputes included Canberra’s call for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19, the decision to ban Huawei and Australia’s allegations of Chinese political interference.
But a change of government has generated a sense of cautious optimism that tensions may moderate.
The Labor Party has been in opposition all the time Xi Jinping has been president. (Reuters: Jason Lee)
On Monday, the Chinese government broke a more than two-year freeze on contact with Australian ministers, sending a congratulatory message to new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Premier Li Keqiang said the Chinese side was “willing to work with the Australian side to review the past, look to the future and uphold the principle of mutual respect.”
Albanese told reporters on Tuesday that he welcomed the Chinese prime minister’s letter, saying Australia was looking for good relations with all countries.
“So welcome to all the congratulations from around the world. We will respond appropriately in time when you return to Australia,” he said.
But he also reiterated that “it is not Australia that has changed, China has changed,” and called on Beijing to lift trade sanctions.
Despite the warmer signals, Chinese analysts expect only modest improvements after years of what Beijing described as Australia’s “anti-China crusade.”
They say we can expect less “bombastic talks”, a return to diplomacy and more focus on regional relations rather than strengthening ties with the US.
Similar posture, new approach
In the run-up to the election, former Prime Minister Scott Morrison accused Labor of being soft on China.
But Albanese agreed with the Morrison government that China had changed since Labor came to power in 2013, the same year Xi Jinping became president.
“He’s more forward-thinking, he’s more aggressive,” Albanese said in a leadership debate earlier this month.
“This means that Australia, of course, has to respond.”
Professor James Laurenceson of the UTS Australia-China Relations Institute said there was a possibility of an improved trajectory, but did not expect a “recovery”.
Labor shared its concerns about the more assertive behavior of China’s foreign policy that “sometimes evades international rules and regulations,” but there would likely be a shift in provocation, he said.
“The work approach to addressing this challenge is different from that of the Morrison government: less pompous conversations, more practical actions, and more emphasis on non-tough power responses like diplomacy,” Professor Laurenceson told ABC.
Dr. Yeophantong says she expects a calmer tone between Australia and China. (Supplied by: UNSW Canberra)
Pichamon Yeophantong, a full professor at UNSW Canberra, agreed that there would be a change in rhetoric that would be “less provocative, more moderate”.
“However, I think there are still limitations to the extent to which a change of tone would help address some of the more structural and fundamental issues that underlie tensions,” Dr. Yeophantong said.
“It’s not just about rhetoric, it’s also about taking these specific policy steps to essentially rebuild trust within this bilateral relationship.”
Conflicts surrounding human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and provocations in the South China Sea will not go away, Professor Laurenceson said.
But that doesn’t mean the relationship can’t improve.
“There are many countries around the world that publicly express their concerns about these issues … despite doing so, they still managed to keep relations with China in a much better state than Australia’s relations with the United States. China at the moment, “he said.
Focus on non-competitive relationships
Over the years, Australia has focused on strengthening relations in the region that are firmly aligned with the United States and designed to compete with Beijing.
The Morrison government has restarted the Quad Security Partnership with the United States, India and Japan, which has long provoked both headlines and anger from the Chinese government.
It then joined forces with the United Kingdom and the United States to form the AUKUS agreement last year, a measure widely seen as an attempt to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
“These two initiatives were created through the lens of strategic competition between the United States and China,” said Professor Laurenceson.
“And by joining them, Australia made it very clear that it would prefer to maintain US leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.
“I think that’s what will change under a Labor government … Labor is also more willing to engage with regional partners on their own terms and listen to their advice.”
Albanese says Australia’s commitment to Quad will not change, but stresses that climate change is a key strategic approach. (Reuters: Yuichi Yamazaki)
Dr Yeophantong said it was clear that the new government would not change its position on issues such as support for AUKUS and the Quad, but hoped it would focus more broadly on the region.
“So let’s look beyond the China issue and really focus on building and rebuilding bilateral and multilateral relations with countries in that region,” he said.
“I think this could help signal a more promising change, a change that Beijing may also find less inflammatory or less worrying.”
Penny Wong, who has been sworn in as Labor Secretary of State, has stated her intention to work more closely with Southeast Asia and has not wasted time in reaching the Pacific.
She posted a video statement on Twitter shortly after being sworn in “to share some ideas with our Pacific family.”
“We want to help build a stronger Pacific family, so we’ll do more. But we’ll do better, too,” he said.
Since then, Senator Wong has announced that she plans to visit Fiji as soon as Thursday.
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During the election campaign, Labor pledged to increase engagement with the region by setting up an office in Southeast Asia within the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and appointing a “dedicated high-level traveling regional ambassador”.
Albanese also promised to travel to Indonesia as a first diplomatic visit after attending the Quad meeting in Japan.
“We live in a region where in the future we will have China, India and Indonesia as giants,” he said.
“We need to strengthen this economic partnership. And one way to do that is to strengthen people-to-people relationships as well.”
Stay strong on defense
Given China’s continued aggression in Taiwan and growing influence in the Pacific, it seems unlikely that Australia’s military and defense policies in the region will change.
Both the Coalition and Labor were accused of looking the other way when China and the Solomon Islands signed a controversial security pact.
Albanese said on Tuesday that the Solomon Islands discussed the Quad meetings, “including the issue in which China is trying to exert more influence in the Pacific.”
He said the Quad had discussed the question “how do we make sure we push our shared values in the region at a time when China is clearly trying to exert more influence?”
The comments came as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embarked on a trip to the Pacific of unprecedented scope and ambition.
He plans to travel to eight countries in the region in 10 days.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare had recently been critical of the Morrison government. (Supplied by: Press Secretary to the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands)
Dr Jian Zhang, of the Australian Defense Academy in Canberra, said that while Albanese’s election victory offered an opportunity to improve relations with China, the measure should be handled with caution.
“Improving relations is more likely to be handled diplomatically by trying to take moderate action without implicating Australia’s key security interests, without directly challenging China and without actively stirring,” he told ABC.
It will be “an act of precarious balance” for the Albanian government, Dr. Yeophantong said.
Workers will need to remain strong in national security and proactive in reaching other countries in the region, while amending and building bridges with Beijing, he said.
“I think that might define the foreign policy of the Albanian government,” Dr. Yeophantong said.
He said the Albanian government was sending strong signals that it would follow a foreign policy approach similar to what the Biden government was doing with China and the Indo-Pacific in general.
“If we look at the Biden administration, we see moderate rhetoric, but also a stronger focus on broader engagement with Indo-Pacific countries,” he said.
“Biden himself has tried to involve a variety of countries in a large number of visits to the region. But deep down it is a matter of finding out a clear identity.”