The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecast 14 to 21 storms on Tuesday, ranging from six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.
The 2020 and 2021 seasons exhausted the list of hurricane names and broke records. No one can say for sure if this year will be similar, but in early April, Colorado State University released its numbers, which were in line with what NOAA predicts.
The CSU forecast called for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major storms.
After years of using all the names of hurricanes and resorting to the Greek alphabet, the World Meteorological Organization decided to stop using the Greek alphabet and made another list of names that would be used if all hurricane names run out once. again.
Of course, it is impossible to know how many of these storms will make landfall on the U.S. coast, or where the largest storms will develop.
However, during the announcement, NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad acknowledged that the current hurricane cycle for the Atlantic is busy.
“If you go back two years, the 2020 hurricane season broke records at all levels and is the most active season on record with 30 named storms,” Spinrad said.
“The 2021 hurricane season, which is the third most active year in terms of storm names, brought us 21 so-called impact storms, ranging from the Appalachian Mountains to New England, and caused more $ 78.5 billion in damages in the United States. “
What is driving the seasons above average
There are several factors that contribute to a “busy” hurricane season. “We’re in an active period,” Spinrad said. “There are certain ingredients that drive the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.”
One is La Niña’s existing conditions in the equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon creates colder-than-average ocean temperatures around the equator in the Pacific and causes meteorological impacts around the world.
La Niña has favorable conditions for hurricanes, in contrast to El Niño.
Hurricane seasons in El Niño conditions are known for higher-level wind patterns across the Caribbean that destroy hurricanes as they attempt to form, making the seasons less active.
Another reason for the above-average forecast is the location of the so-called “Gulf Loop Current”. This stream is “a 600-foot-deep river of warm Caribbean water that travels between Cancun, Mexico and western Cuba to the Gulf,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
This loop current flows further north now, forcing warm water to deeper levels of the ocean to travel closer to coastal areas along the Gulf of Mexico. “The warm water is just too deep and the hurricane has an unlimited supply of hot water for intensification,” Myers said.
Meteorologists are comparing the position of the loop current with where it was placed during the record season of 2005, when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall.
“Yeah, the loop current looks like 2005,” said Matthew Rosencrans, chief forecaster of the hurricane season at NOAA’s Center for Climate Prediction. “But it depends on whether a storm is really moving above that loop current and forecasting the specific track of the storms is not something we can do beyond a week,” Rosencrans added.
Consecutive record years
During the hurricane season of 2021, eight storms made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in 2020 six made landfall along the Gulf.
In 2020, Hurricanes Laura and Delta hit southwestern Louisiana and made landfall about 15 miles away. What to do if you’re on the path of a hurricane “In 2021, Hurricane Ida tore southeastern Louisiana and then caused more catastrophic damage in the northeast.
“Hurricane Ida covered nine states, showing that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the wreckage of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important that everyone understands their risk.”