Under current party rules, another year must pass before another formal leadership challenge can take place.
But the 1922 Committee has the power to change the rules to allow for a new vote of confidence in a shorter period of time.
What is the 1922 Committee?
The 1922 Committee is a group of a dozen Conservative MPs – lawmakers who do not serve in the Prime Minister’s government – who meet regularly to discuss party issues. The committee meets monthly with the party leader to represent the views of grassroots members.
Crucially, the group determines the rules under which a seated leader can be challenged.
The committee was appointed because a group of legislators elected in 1922 formed it, albeit in 1923.
Its members are elected by all Conservative MPs, and an election will be held on Monday to elect a new executive committee.
What is the probability of changing the rules?
This depends on the new executive of the 1922 Committee. Several Conservative legislators have said they will run on the committee and vote in favor of a rule change, if elected.
The committee did not announce any immediate change to the rules after a private meeting on Wednesday.
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Bob Blackman, the committee’s joint executive secretary, said Wednesday earlier that he believed a “very high threshold” needs to be reached to ensure a vote of confidence so soon after last month’s vote.
“What we need to do is definitely have our heads calm here, because one of the other suggestions that is being made … is that you reduce the deadline to six months. Six months will take you to early December,” he told British channel TalkTV.
“From my point of view, you should have a very high threshold to secure votes of confidence very soon after a previous vote of confidence,” he said.
What if Johnson loses a vote of confidence?
Johnson would fight to stay and win another vote of confidence, his press secretary said Wednesday. He described last month’s result as “clear and decisive”.
Johnson needs the support of 180 of the 359 Conservative lawmakers to survive a vote of confidence.
If he loses, he would resign and the party would hold elections for a new leader; Johnson could not run. He would remain party leader and prime minister until a replacement is elected.
Any Conservative lawmaker can run to replace Johnson as party leader. The winner of the leadership race becomes prime minister, without the need for national elections.
Could the queen intervene?
The British monarch remains firmly apolitical. Although as head of state, technically the Queen has the power to remove prime ministers, she has never used it in Britain, believing that it is up to the parties and their member MPs to solve leadership problems. (His then-Governor-General, Sir John Kerr, ousted Australian Prime Minister Gough Whitlam in 1975 and the Palace Papers indicated he was aware of this.)
The Queen greets Prime Minister Boris Johnson in June at her first weekly face-to-face meeting since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Credit: Getty Images
It should give its rise if Johnson called early elections, in which case voters will decide which party should govern, but again this is a formality. During her long reign, Elizabeth tended to follow the advice of her prime ministers.
None of this has stopped British MPs from trying to find a way: the London Telegraph reports that this week there has been a lot of legal advice that several MPs have asked about their options to replace Johnson.